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A resilience assessment model for dry bulk shipping supply chains: the case of the Ukraine grain corridor

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Maritime Economics & Logistics Aims and scope

Abstract

Maritime supply chains are critical elements in global freight movements, but they are vulnerable to interruption owing to various events, such as port disruptions, natural hazards and war-related risks. The Ukrainian-Russian war has proved to be a significant disruptor of maritime supply chains. However, under the United Nations grain corridor initiative, approximately 14 million tons of Ukrainian grain exports have been loaded in the first 6 months of its operation, clearly indicating the supply chain resilience present within the grain corridor. This suggests the need for an in-depth investigation of the internal characteristics and dynamics of the system. Hence, within the context of the grain corridor initiative, this study addresses the resilience of the dry bulk supply chain and its underlying ‘dynamic capability’ and inherent adaptability and responsiveness. A novel assessment model is proposed for addressing the role of tonnage flexibility. Accordingly, objective and subjective multi-criteria decision-making methods are employed in an integrated approach that incorporates the concept of resilience as embodied in the dimensions of density, demand, dispersion, diversity, and utilization. Moreover, the prompt and flexible response of dry bulk fleets to disruptive occurrences can be explained by the dynamic capabilities view. Perhaps counterintuitively, the results reveal that the Panamax vessel size category is the most significant for ensuring the recovery of maritime supply chains, while the small dry bulk size category is less important, despite its vital role and prevalence within the wider context of general Black Sea maritime transportation.

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Source United Nations (2023)

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  1. An Associate Degree is an undergraduate degree awarded after a course of post-secondary study lasting two to three years. It is a level of academic qualification above a high school diploma and below a bachelor's degree. It is roughly equivalent to what are referred to as Foundation Degrees of Higher National Diplomas (HNDs).

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Acknowledgements

We extend our thanks to the editorial board and anonymous reviewers of Maritime Economics and Logistics for their meticulous evaluation and constructive comments. Their invaluable feedback has immensely improved the quality and rigor of our work, and we truly appreciate the time and effort they dedicated to reviewing our manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Istanbul Bilgi University, Istanbul, Turkey

    Serkan Karakas

  2. Piri Reis University, 34940, Tuzla/Istanbul, Turkey

    Mehmet Kirmizi & Huseyin Gencer

  3. University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden

    Kevin Cullinane

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  1. Serkan Karakas
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Appendix 1: Survey

Appendix 1: Survey

Participant profile

Name

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Job Title

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Education Level

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Experience

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Criteria

Definition

Average cargo volume per ship

For each tonnage (DWT) group, it indicates the average amount of cargo loaded per ship

Repeated call index

It indicates how often ships belonging to each tonnage group (DWT) call at Ukrainian ports within the grain corridor

Geographic dispersion

It indicates the maximum number of countries that the ships belonging to each tonnage group (DWT) carry out transportation

Cargo diversity

It represents the number of different types of commodities carried by ships in each tonnage group (DWT)

Utilization

For each tonnage (DWT) group, it indicates how many tons of cargo are transported on average per DWT

figure a

Indicate how important one of them is over the other as a result of the comparison of the two criteria

(Enter data in multiples of 5, for example 15%)

1st criterion is

XX %

More important than

2nd criterion

2nd criterion is

XX %

More important than

3rd criterion

3rd criterion is

XX %

More important than

4th criterion

4th criterion is

XX %

More important than

5th criterion

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Karakas, S., Kirmizi, M., Gencer, H. et al. A resilience assessment model for dry bulk shipping supply chains: the case of the Ukraine grain corridor. Marit Econ Logist (2023). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41278-023-00277-7

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