A Financial Model of Foreign Exchange Exposure

Abstract

The paper describes a model of foreign exchange exposure. This is defined as the sensitivity of a specific investment's value in reference currency to changes in exchange rate forecasts. This sensitivity may result because some share of the investment cash flows are denominated in foreign currency. Alternatively, a share of cash flows denominated in reference currency which are affected by future exchange rates can also generate sensitivity.

The model integrates a general corporate valuation framework with a theory of expectations and a general model of corporate macro-economic relationships. Its contribution is in generalizing previous models of these relationships. It also provides a link between empirical work, theoretical descriptions of the exchange rate/relative price relationship, and corporate valuation theory.

The model implies a fairly rich description of the corporate and economic characteristics which determine exposure. These descriptors may be used to explain differences in the responses to exchange rate changes of different companies, product lines, or industries.