Eastern Publics and Western Enlargement

Abstract

Crossnational surveys conducted in late 1997 and early 1998 in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Ukraine suggest that mass publics in all four countries are more favorably disposed towards European Union than NATO membership, with less variation from country to country and less uncertainty. There were few effects for gender, but younger, urban, better-educated and better-off respondents were more likely to favor membership in both organizations. There were also substantial effects for attitudes, with those who favored closer relationships with foreign countries, a more distant relationship with Russia, and a market economy more favorable towards membership in both cases. Similar results, but with minor variations, emerged from a regression analysis. Overall, support for EU membership reflected social characteristics with particular strength (age, education and residence); support for NATO membership, conversely, drew more strongly on attitudinal variables, including a commitment to freedom and antipathy towards a strong leader.