Retrospect: Mistakes and Triumphs

Abstract

The 1992 campaign presents a challenge. The Conservatives’ lead was so clear that the events of the final three weeks could not have altered the outcome. However, a mere one percent swing nationwide would have reduced the Conservatives to 312 seats, not enough for them to carry on as a government. Their victory was a near-run thing. The Conservatives, with a mistake or two, could have forfeited their triumph; the Opposition, acting differently, could have won. The campaign is worthy of scrutiny because it was, perhaps, decisive. It also deserves attention because of the intense interest it generated in the media. Even while it was going on it was analysed exhaustively so that, in a curiously circular way, the campaign itself became the issue.