Vulnerability to climate variability of productive livelihoods in the Talgua watershed, Honduras.

This research aims to analyze the vulnerability of productive agricultural livelihoods to the effects of climate variability in the Talgua watershed, Honduras. Information was collected through surveys and interviews with small producers and community leaders. A factor analysis (KMO test value 0.721; Bartlett’s test of sphericity (P > 0.000) was conducted to identify the relevant variables describing productive livelihoods, and vulnerability was analyzed according to the perception of small producers in the area. Coffee, corn and bean crops are the primary productive livelihoods in the area. Smallholders perceive exposure to climatic threats, such as rising temperature trends, rainfall fluctuations, and extreme events affecting crops and reducing yields. Climate adversities are dealt with through soil conservation techniques, planting season management and water harvesting. The predominant productive livelihoods are vulnerable to climate variability, which requires establishing an adaptation strategy with actions and alternatives that allow these families to cope with climate adversities.


Introduction
Since recent decades, observations and measurements have been made on climate alterations and variations that predict an impact on a global scale, a situation that has caused climate change to be addressed as a priority issue on the world agenda [1,2]. Climate change and variability impact the agricultural production of smallholder farmers worldwide [3], posing a threat to food insecurity, especially in developing countries with climatically vulnerable agricultural systems and where agriculture is the primary source of income for the population [4][5][6]. Despite the extensive scientific debate on the impacts of climate variability, not much is known about smallholder farmers' perception of these impacts on their livelihoods at the local level [7], so understanding the vulnerability of livelihood systems is a priority [3,8] to guide efforts to formulate adaptation strategies in the face of adverse climate conditions. It should be understood that climate variability and climate change have different connotations in time and space. Natural processes within the climate system or external natural or anthropogenic forcings create variations in the mean state and other climate features at all spatial and temporal scales, referred to as climate variability [6,9,10]. On the other hand, climate change refers to a variation in the state of the climate characterized by long-term variations in the mean value or variability of its properties ascribed to human activity that modifies the composition of the global atmosphere, either directly or indirectly [11][12][13][14].

Methodology
Information was collected from institutions and organizations that have or have had a presence in the basin. The procedure included the review of databases, diagnoses, and research reports as a basis for obtaining information of interest in this study. Information on productive livelihoods was obtained through previously validated surveys applied to the family units in the basin and verified through focus group discussions [40]. The study population consisted of 316 smallholder farming families in the area. The variables analyzed on productive aspects include land availability, land use, crop yields, water and firewood energy consumption, income, days worked on crops, and demographics.

Analysis of productive livelihoods
The factors connected with the primary productive livelihoods and determinants in describing the typologies of farmers in the region were subjected to confirmatory factor analysis. The factors exposure, sensitivity, potential impact, and adaptive capacity to cope with the adverse effects of climate change were considered in the analysis of vulnerability to climate change of production systems or livelihoods based on the perceptions of small subsistence producers [35,41]. The information collected was analyzed using IBM-SPSS Statistics version 25 software [42].

Results
The research results are discussed under two themes: (1) Factor analysis of the main productive livelihoods, and (2) Climate vulnerability analysis of productive livelihoods.

Factor analysis of main productive livelihoods
The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) test value of 0.721 suggests that the variables have an excellent shared correlation and Bartlett's test of sphericity (P > 0.000) indicates significant correlations that support the factor analysis. The analysis of commonalities shows that the variables are well explained by the factors with which they are associated ( Table 1).
The communalities present values greater than 0.6, except adult water consumption, whose extraction is lower and is the variable least explained by the factor with which it is associated. According to the criteria used for the analysis, we selected loadings with eigenvalues greater than 1.0, which resulted in the extraction of the first five components that summarize 69% of the total observed variance ( Table 2).
The first three extracted components with the largest eigenvalues explain more than 50% of the total variance after rotation. For a more significant explanation with less possible loss of information with better results, it is necessary to include up to the fifth principal component with eigenvalues greater than one.The rotated component matrix presents the factor loadings associated with each component once the initial factor solution has been rescaled. The variables associated with each factor are uniquely and identically loaded to each component ( Table 3).
The three-dimensional saturation graph shows the variables analyzed that have a significant contribution in defining the scores of each subject about the first three components (Fig. 2). From the correlation of variables to each factor, it is clear that the first component represents the group of primary grains producers who base their livelihoods on these crops. The second component is typified as the group of smallscale coffee producers. The third component refers to household size, human consumption of water, and energy use of fuelwood. The fourth component concerns the total land availability of the producers, and finally, the fifth component relates to the household income received by the watershed dwellers.
Variables related to basic grains production systems show saturations close to the right (positive) end of Component 1. Variables related to coffee production systems are located in the upper part close to the positive end of Component 2, with which they have their highest saturations. Variables associated with household size and energy consumption are located in the middle of the graph and towards the positive end of component 3, with which they have their best saturations. Negative factor scores for each subject, individual, or agricultural producer represented in the scattered point cloud on the graph correspond to values less than the mean; zero scores are valued equal to the mean, and positive scores are valued more significant than the mean (Fig. 3).
Since the new variables have a mean equal to zero and a standard deviation equal to one, a linear transformation can be performed to change the original variables' scale that shows saturation with each factor score. From the factor score analysis of the subjects represented in the point cloud, it is interpreted that those receiving high scores on the right-hand side of the first factor are farmers with above-average actual grain yields. In contrast, those subjects in the point cloud to the left of the first factor with low scores are farmers with below-average staple grain yields. In the center of the first factor are farmers producing staple grains with values similar to the overall average (Fig. 4).
The producers with the highest coffee yields are the producers earning high scores above the mean and located in the top section of the second component. Those with low scores located at the bottom of the second factor are producers with low coffee yields, and in the middle are coffee producers with coffee yields similar to the average. Similarly, subjects who receive high scores on the third factor are farmers with large families and therefore high demands on water resources for consumption and high expenditure of firewood for food preparation. In contrast, subjects with low factor scores correspond to households with few members and lower water and household fuelwood consumption demands. The factor scores of each dimension or component are independent of each other, and therefore their correlation is null.
The results confirm that the factor analysis has been satisfactory as it clearly defines the groups of producers or production systems existing in the basin according to the livelihoods, they mainly use for family subsistence. The leading group is small producers whose livelihood is to cultivate basic grains; they plant maize and beans for family subsistence either in monoculture, association, or dry season relief. Maize and beans are sown in less than 1.0 hectares; they use a conventional technological level with minimal applications of synthetic fertilizers that do not cover the crop's nutritional needs and use high doses of agrochemicals to control pests and diseases. In maize cultivation, they obtain average yields of 1.43 ± 0.52 Mg ha − 1 , and in the bean cultivation, yields are 1.29 ± 0.54 Mg ha − 1 . These smallholders work an average of 58 ± 19 days and 46 ± 16 days in management activities during the bean and maize crop cycle, respectively.
Approximately one-third of the harvest is stored to guarantee food consumption for a family nucleus of 4 to 5 people between crop cycles, and they reserve seed to be used in the following agricultural sowing. The harvest surplus is marketed to obtain economic income to buy products for their food diet, satisfy other basic needs, and defray expenses incurred in productive activities. These subsistence producers carry out their agricultural activities on hillside lands, with a low technological level that is reflected in low yields.
A second group comprises coffee producers or production systems whose primary source of income generation for family subsistence is coffee. On average, they cultivate 1.41 ± 0.88 hectares of coffee with a low technological level to which they dedicate 74 ± 17 working days and achieve yields of 0.70 ± 0.28 Mg ha − 1 . Their activities are mainly carried out in high altitudes above 900 m above sea level in agricultural frontier zones that impact the environment by generating externalities manifested in the middle and lower zones of the basin.

Climate vulnerability analysis of productive livelihoods
According to the vulnerability analysis results on the exposure factor, small farmers and key actors perceive that the climate has shown a changing trend in the last 5 years, with fluctuations affecting water availability. This situation is attributed to the deforestation of riparian and mountain forests. They perceive a lengthening of the period with the hottest months and a delay in the cooler months, a variation with a delay in the rainy period and the months with more intense rainfall; a lengthening of the heatwave period and the months with a higher incidence of strong winds (Table 4).
In the typical weather pattern, temperatures and rainfall are stable and optimal for agricultural activities in different livelihoods; however, farmers perceive variations in these standard conditions and attribute this to climate change. Sometimes crops are affected by the dry period of the canicule, which varies in lengthening and lengthening; on the other hand, exposure to the manifestations of extreme climatic events with excessive rainfall causes damage to crop and harvests, as well as to access roads to the communities, a situation that hinders the transfer and marketing of the harvest to the local market.
Recently, hurricanes ETA and IOTA in 2020 affected this area with a profound impact on production and caused the total loss of maize and bean crops and affected the coffee harvest by the fall of the beans, in addition to the damage caused to the roads leading to the communities and production areas. In previous decades there were similar events visible by the highest peaks in the rainfall time series (Fig. 5) such as Hurricanes Mitch in 1998 and Beta in 2005 and Tropical Depression 16 in 2008 that caused severe damage to productive livelihoods and housing infrastructure and access roads to communities within the watershed.
Regarding the sensitivity factor, the interviewees affirmed that agricultural activities have not changed over time since they have been developed in the same way for many years, concentrated in the upper middle part of the right margin of the watershed in the communities of Flor del café, Buena Vista 1, Buena Vista 2, Pinabetales and Santafé. In the last 5 years, farmers' main problem has been soil degradation, manifested in a decrease in natural fertility attributed to the increasing climate trends, mainly due to the increase in temperature and the loss of soil and nutrients due to erosion during the rainy season.
In typical weather, small farmers plant maize and beans in May to harvest in the dry period of canicule in August. They then plant beans in September for harvesting in December. However, climate fluctuations and changes in rainfall patterns alter production cycles; basic grains are sown in October and harvested in January. They also perceive that fluctuations in rainfall and temperatures cause the incidence of diseases such as "yellow ice" or angular spot transmitted by the fungus Phaseoisariopsis griseola, which damages foliage and crop yields.
Regarding coffee cultivation, the climatic fluctuations in the area affect cultural practices such as rejuvenation pruning due to the stress caused by the high temperatures that prevail from March to May. Rainfall during June to July and the winds that occur between October and November cause flowers and fruits to fall; the harvest with the best cuts November, December and January with the incidence of solid winds from the end of November to February is affected by the intense rains, the scarcity of labor, and the deterioration of roads caused by the rains that affect crop yields and the family economy of small producers. All groups of basic grains and coffee producers are highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climatic fluctuations, such as droughts or excessive rainfall, which have resulted in the total or partial loss of basic grains and coffee harvests. The potential impact of climatic variations is perceived by the fluctuations of the rainy season; farmers are aware that these changes are caused mainly by agricultural activities and the loss of vegetation cover.

Discussion
The small producers of basic grains in the maize crop obtain yields below the national average [43]; in contrast, in the bean crop, yields are higher [44]. Farmers perceive that these production levels are lower than those obtained 5 years ago and attribute this to the lack of adequate fertilization and soil degradation, reducing natural fertility. It is considered that, as the production depends on rainfall, the food security of villagers is based on crops with high vulnerability to climate change and variability [45]. Maize and beans are planted in the rainy season, either in monoculture, association, or relay; they use a low level of technology and are grown on hillside lands, increasing their vulnerability to climate trends and fluctuations. Coffee producers obtain well below the national and local average [46,47]. The low coffee yields in the area derive from the low technological level employed by producers due to the low investment made in small coffee farms [46]. In addition to the above, the adverse effects of climate threats [48,49], labor shortages, price fluctuations, and limited return on investment have caused many producers to abandon coffee farms because they cannot maintain them adequately. It is a group vulnerable to climate variability [50,51], a phenomenon that influences the proliferation of pests and diseases that affect the crop [52][53][54]. Small coffee farmers report that the crop is stressed by high temperatures (30-32 °C) from March to May. In addition, the rains cause the fall of flowers and fruits that affect production and the family economy. They also report the incidence of coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix) and "Ojo de Gallo" (Mycena citricolor), which is attributed to environmental modification caused by deforestation.
The number of members in each household is similar to the national average estimated for rural areas [55]. The household income of producers in the area is well below the national and local average [56,57]. Farmers perceive variations in rainfall and temperatures that they attribute to climate change. Coincident perceptions were reported by farmers in studies conducted in a semi-arid region in South Africa, upper east of Ghana and Southern Ethiopia [3,7,58,59]. However, meteorological data cannot support the assertion that rainfall has decreased [58]. Rainfall records during the 1998-2019 period contrast with the perception of small producers in the Talgua river basin who appreciate a decrease in rainfall. Similar rainfall volumes are observed during this period, perhaps with slight fluctuations that explain farmers' perceptions, which coincides with the disparities reported from the rainfall analysis in a study in the upper East of Ghana, since there was no significant trend of rainfall decrease [59]. On the other hand, small farmers perceive that the area is a producer of the water resource and have not suffered from water shortages; however, their adaptive capacity means that in difficult times they collect water when harvesting in holes covered with nylon to avoid losses in the crops that are their primary livelihoods.
Increasing temperature trends and fluctuations in the rainfall pattern modify the optimal environment for crop growth and development [25,[60][61][62], and soil nutrient availability [63]. Prevailing temperatures in the area favor germination and flowering and are optimal for achieving maximum maize crop production [64]. Temperature increases caused by climate change will cause reductions in maize yields by shortening the phenological cycle, increasing respiration, and decreasing photosynthetic rate [60,65]. Eventually, climate fluctuations perceived by maize producers will affect food security and increase household vulnerability. The Talgua river basin is a bean-producing area, given that the climatic conditions meet the crop requirements in the vegetative and reproductive phases [66,67]. However, based on the climate changes perceived by farmers concerning the increase in months with higher temperatures, in the vegetative phase, the occurrence of foliar stress and physiological and metabolic disorders could be expected as a water deficit is created in the soil that would limit the absorption and translocation of nutrients and reduction of the photosynthetic rate [63]. Regarding coffee cultivation, the agroecological conditions of the upper zone of the basin are suitable for production with intermediate bean quality [46,68]. However, fluctuations in climate due to the increase in temperature at low altitudes in the coffee-growing zone force small producers to adapt their production systems [69]. They often abandon their farms to migrate to the highlands to establish new plantations in agricultural frontier zones. Climate elements control coffee phenology where variability alters flowering and bean filling [70] and fruit ripening, creating risks in production [53]. In the Talgua basin, the ecological modifications induced by climate change, with an increase in the months with higher temperatures, a delay in the rainy season, and a lengthening of the heatwave period, are likely to cause alterations in planting dates and crop distribution, which will put at risk and increase the vulnerability of the predominant productive livelihoods in the area [71]. Coffee plantations are affected by the incidence of pests and diseases that decimate crop yields [52], coupled with the fall in international coffee prices [72], which leads to the abandonment of farms and the scarce availability of local labor that hinders the harvesting of crops. This problematic scenario threatens the livelihood of families and stimulates the migration of young people [73] who move to the cities or migrate to the United States in search of a better life for themselves and their families. Unfortunately, there is no permanent and continuous program of technical assistance and agricultural training to help reverse this situation. However, recently there has been an increased presence of institutions such as the Honduran Red Cross and the National University of Agriculture (UNAG) that provide training in crop management, soil conservation, organic agriculture, risk management, and climate change. Farmers plant contour crops, organic residue management, living barriers, cover crops with legumes to provide nutrients, control soil erosion, and protect water sources. These practices are not generally used because they are carried out by farmers who have received technical assistance, including community leaders. Therefore, these results are consistent with previous research [74,75] that reported that technical assistance motivates farmers to implement adaptation measures to climate adversities. Finally, agricultural producers in these rural areas, whose main livelihoods are planting basic grains and coffee, carry out their activities under unfavorable climatic conditions that place them as high-risk groups [51]. Decision-makers must consider these results to formulate a climate adaptation strategy that includes short, medium, and long-term actions with viable alternatives to gradually face the adversities caused by global climate change gradually. In designing the strategy, it is essential to take into account the agricultural producers' households, their energy requirements, the use of natural resources, the availability of the means of production, and the income received from the development of these productive activities, which are vital for their subsistence and that of their families.

Conclusions
The objective of this study was to analyze the vulnerability to climate variability of productive livelihoods according to the perception of small farmers in the Talgua watershed, Honduras. Through factor analysis defined the main livelihoods and production systems in the basin. The most critical group comprises small producers of basic grains with a low technological level that limits the productivity of the crops necessary for family subsistence. In addition, there is the group of small coffee growers whose main livelihood is coffee, from which they obtain low yields due to the low investment they make for the maintenance of their coffee plantations. According to the livelihood vulnerability analysis, producers perceive that they are exposed to climatic threats such as increases in temperature, decreases in rainfall, lengthening of the heatwave period, and incidence of extreme events with excessive rainfall that have caused the total loss of maize and bean production and the partial loss of flowers and beans in the coffee crop. It is also perceived that climatic fluctuations and trends alter production cycles and cause diseases that damage foliage and reduce crop production. Farmers are aware that climate changes are caused by agricultural activities and the loss of forests, making them more vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate. To adapt to and cope with climate-induced adversities, some farmers carry out soil conservation practices through various measures to improve natural fertility and protect the soil from erosion caused by rainfall in hillside areas. Finally, both types of productive livelihoods are perceived to be very vulnerable to climate variability and climate change; therefore, formulating an adaptation strategy with actions and alternatives is needed to enable these producers to cope with the adverse effects of this global phenomenon. In this sense, the findings of this research will undoubtedly contribute to this purpose by better understanding the impact of climatic trends and fluctuations on productive livelihoods in subsistence agriculture.