Fifteen research needs for understanding climate change impacts on ecosystems and society in the Norwegian High North

There is an urgent need to understand and address the risks associated with a warming climate for ecosystems and societies in the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. There are major gaps in our understanding of the complex effects of climate change—including extreme events, cascading impacts across ecosystems, and the underlying socioecological dynamics and feedbacks—all of which need collaborative efforts to be resolved. Here, we present results where climate scientists, ecologists, social scientists, and practitioners were asked to identify the most urgent research needs for understanding climate change impacts and to identify the actions for reducing future risks in catchment areas in the Norwegian High North, a region that encompasses both Arctic and sub-Arctic climates in northern Norway. From a list of 77 questions, our panel of 19 scientists and practitioners identified 15 research needs that should be urgently addressed. We particularly urge researchers to investigate cross-ecosystem impacts and the socioecological feedbacks that could amplify or reduce risks for society. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-023-01882-9.

be better documented, and how can the knowledge base for the management of coastal fishing, including Sea Sámi fishing, be strengthened?Climate-Land-Water:Fluxes

2.1
Climate effect on runoff: How does changes in increased winter temperatures (which again affect frozen ground, snow and rain) affect quality of runoff from land.Quality in the broadest sense (but particularly the load of nutrients and pollutants).

2.2
It may be obvious with the name of the project, but central is the integration of different systems; atmosphere, land, fresh water, coast, where water and hydrology are the integral element.There should be an increased focus on freshwater as an element to capture changes in terrestrial systems, and which bring the changes on to marine recipients.Carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, silicon and iron are key elements for production and should be followed in an integrated manner.

2.3
What will be the ecological consequences of permafrost thaw?
2.4 Improved models that look at the land-ocean continuum as a coupled system 2.5 How will future changes (climate, land cover, insect attacks) affect the terrestrial and aquatic carbon cycle?Will it lead to positive feedback on climate?

2.6
How will climate change affect river flows, flood risk (surface water in built-up areas on permafrost and ice-covered ground) and sediment transport?What impact will it have on human movement and nature interactions?

2.7
Research on feedback mechanisms, primarily how the mobilization of organic carbon, together with N and P, stimulates the production of CO2 and CH4.Should also be linked to eDNA and RNAseq to look at microbial gene activity

2.8
Avalanches -change in snow types and amounts of snow as a result of climate change?Will climate change mean that classic avalanche protection against slab avalanches / loose snow avalanches is not sufficient against changing types of avalanches?That is, will the rock falls get bigger, or will the snow be wetter and heavier, towards slippery slides?

2.9
Groundwater-related ecosystems in the north.
2.10 (EXTRA) How can grazing on natural pastures / outfield pastures stimulate carbon storage in pasture soils?how can this knowledge be integrated into climate accounting to balance the one-sided negative impression of emissions from grazing animals as a climate problem Ecosystems and Society: Climate adaptation 3.1 How to ensure better protection of nature?Increasingly large areas are being demolished with cabins, roads, wind power, etc, and the natural areas are both deteriorating and fragmented.This in turn makes nature more vulnerable to climate change.

3.2
Explore and highlight harmful consequences for nature of climate measures such as a. development of wind power plants and mining activities that will support the so-called green shift, which is in danger of becoming the gray shift when nature destruction is not made visible and emphasized in decision-making processes, and including strengthening knowledge about what researchers at NINA call nature cure -synergy between nature conservation and climate measures -as a supplement to the authorities' climate cure.

3.3
How will climate change affect human societies in the north?What impact will it have on infrastructure, industry and security?

3.4
How to adapt to climate change?Increased research on preventive measures in a cost-benefit perspective in various areas.Most people want to adapt, but there is uncertainty about how this should be done and what effect it actually has.

3.5
Vulnerability (ROS) for impacts of climate change -on society, cultural heritage / cultural practice, settlement in the north.

3.6
How to safeguard our northern resources in the most ecologically sustainable way possible?Intensive conventional agriculture depends on phosphate, which is a very limited resource in the long run.The war in Ukraine also illustrates that it can be risky to be too dependent on imported food.Strengthened knowledge of our northern terrestrial, limnic and marine ecosystems and agriculture is therefore absolutely necessary to secure our livelihood in the north with nature preserved.

3.7
How to reduce energy consumption instead of facilitating increased energy production.Whatever form of energy we choose, it has negative consequences for nature and society in the short and especially long term.Therefore, our energy consumption must be greatly reduced -and a lot of energy is wasted.This also includes completely unnecessary transport of goods around the world to find cheaper processing sites, where both transport and polluting power contribute to very negative emissions to nature.

3.8
Explore, highlight and strengthen the knowledge base to see the sustainability goals and identify synergies between goals related to climate and nature, and goals for economics, socioeconomic and social conditions and culture, and strengthen the overall knowledge base for political trade-offs between goals to promote the green shift and other societal goals.

3.9
Explore and highlight the importance of reindeer husbandry, sea and river fishing and other Sámi outdoor activities as a basis for Sámi culture and as a basis for our common nature to be protected from destructive degradation, including ensuring stronger integration of Sámi traditional knowledge of nature with scientific knowledge in a comprehensive knowledge base for nature management, climate policy and economic development.
3.10 Identify plausible trajectories of environmental and societal changes in the near future compatible with scenarios for changes in the distant future (i.e. to avoid jeopardizing future options).

3.11
The significance of climate change for traditional Sámi domestic reindeer husbandry in its original, nomadic form.Without support feeding and transport of reindeer from winter to summer grazing with eg trailer.Mild winters have already shown what consequences it may have for reindeer husbandry in the future.Is it possible with adjustments?It is precisely the natural way in which reindeer live that makes reindeer meat as exclusive as food, for example.If the animals are fed, the taste and meat quality change.
3.12 Coastal erosion -where (geographical and or type of bedrock / geomorphology), how fast does it happen, how can coastal erosion against buildings / infrastructure be prevented / reduced, what measures are good measures to "save" buildings and infrastructure that are exposed to coastal erosion?What is a safe building site against coastal erosion -can one calculate how far inland the erosion will take place and how fast it will erode?3.13 How to depoliticize the issue of climate change?3.14 (EXTRA) How can we make visible the consequences for nature and resource use of increased pressure to develop industry for data storage and battery production, and how is the room for maneuver for Norwegian environmental management affected by the fact that foreign ownership interests are strong in these areas?3.15 (EXTRA) How can we make visible the potential for increased use of geothermal energy in Norway, for homes and industry, and highlight how the consequences for nature will be less than with e.g.wind power, and develop the socio-economic cost assessment to also include reduced damage to nature?3.16 (EXTRA) How to integrate this knowledge in a school / teaching context?By increasing the knowledge of future generations, ie children and young people, it will be possible to ensure that in the long run greater and better consideration is given to climate adaptations in community planning.

4.1
Understand the synergistic effects between climate change and other processes that affect ecosystems, including plans for new business activities and land use, and communicate the understanding through assessments that address relevant decision-makers and the general public.

4.2
What are the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services derived from local, regional and above regional biodiversity?

4.3
Filling up the data gaps by compiling older data where it hasn't been done yet.

4.4
Monitoring of changes in relation to baseline data over a minimum of a ten-year period.

4.5
Establish integrated monitoring systems that make it possible to identify pathways for adaptation across different socio-ecosystems and to distinguish the effects of management versus other changes (eg climate).

4.6
Impact on existing drinking water sources and the need for development / securing of new sources without affecting existing ecosystems and biological diversity.

4.7
The sea -how climate change affects temperature, local climate and ecosystem in the fjords.Through farming of salmon along the Norwegian coast, large amounts of food are produced, and this creates large ripple effects.How will salmon farming (other species as well) and the overall fishing industry be affected by climate change?

4.8
How to develop better methodology for action planning based on the knowledge from comprehensive assessments ?4.9 Identify possible management policies and how they can be assessed robustly and as quickly as possible using (quasi) experimental approaches.4.10 Consequences for reindeer husbandry and increasingly demanding conditions in the winter grazing areas.
4.11 (EXTRA) Strengthen the knowledge base for management by combining scientific knowledge and traditional knowledge, both from Sami industries and outdoor use and from agriculture and fishing.
4.12 (EXTRA) Strengthen the knowledge base for precautionary perspectives in management, by highlighting the sum effect, cumulative effect of climate change, land encroachment and management, and identifying early warnings.B2.How will climate change impact ecosystems structure (e.g.biodiversity, vegetation strata), functions (flux of nutrients) and services they can provide (e.g.grazing, livestock, berries, game and fish, tourism, cultural, flood protection, aquaculture)?

Reformulated + examples added
How will climate-driven changes in the tundra ecosystem change its structure (vegetation, species composition), function (flux of nutrients), and services they provide (hunting, grazing, berry picking, fishing)?Q1.3,1.4,1.5,1.7 B3.What is the cumulative impact of climate change and anthropogenic stressors on biological taxa that are dependent on or act as links between multiple ecosystems?Reformulated to emphasize on the anthropogeni c impacts What is the cumulative impact of climate change on biological taxa that are dependent on multiple ecosystems?What happens to those species is important because they provide linkages across ecosystems.Novel B4.How do changes in frequency and magnitude of climate events (extreme events including abrupt increase/decrease in precipitation, temperature, and flood) affect food web connections across ecosystems (e.g., from sea to land, from freshwater to land, from land to sea), and which adaptation actions (immediate and long-term) are necessary to respond to these changes?Reformulated How do changes in frequency and magnitutde of climate events (precipitation, temperature, …) affect food web connections and the flux of resources across ecosystems (e.g., mosquitoes that emerge in bogs and are food to birds and affect reindeer and pollinate plants near and far)  How can researchers and management agencies communicate the results of monitoring and assessments in ways that are meaningful to stakeholders and that will inform policy decisions?

Novel
Q4.1 Merged in B2 What are the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services derived from local, regional and above regional biodiversity, with emphasis on the consequences on ecosystem services related to salmon farming and on harvesting of game, fish, berries and plants?Q4.7,4.2,4.6 Merged in C3 How can we braid western science and indigenous methods to monitor changes in relation to baseline data (established in part by compiling other data to fill data gaps) over a long time period, included integrated holistic monitoring and impact assessments of whole ecosystems and across ecosystems (terrestrial, freshwater)?
Q4 .3,4.4,4.5 4.13 (EXTRA) Strengthen the knowledge base for management by documenting in what way untouched nature is the best climate measure TableS1.Creation of final list of research needs from the original questions from the survey one ecosystem changes its ecosystem state (e.g., from kelp-dominated to urchin-dominated coastal zone, from tundra to birch forest ecosystem, from benthic-dominated to pelagic-dominated aquatic system or vice-versa) (1) do the other systems change, (2) how do they change, and (3) how large this change has to be in order to change the other ecosystem?Examples added If one ecosystem changes its ecosystem state, (1) do the other systems change, (2) how do they change, and (3) how big the change in one ecosystem has to be in order to change the other ecosystem?Q1.1,1.2,1.6 it have for the local species when the temperature changes/increases and the tundra/plateau grows back from shrub vegetation?Particularly for migrating birds, changes in species composition, ecosystem function, … Q1.4 Climate-Land-Water: Fluxes F1.What are the effects of climate change (including changes in seasonality and extreme events) and land-use change on biogeochemical fluxes and water quantity and quality along the terrestrial-freshwater-marine continuum?Reformulated Effects of climate (terrestrial and marine) and land-use change and shifting phenology on freshwater and marine water quality?Q2.2,2.1 F2.What are the implications of changed storage times in different water reservoirs (e.g.groundwater, surface water, snow, glaciers, fjords) within the land-ocean continuum?Added examples What would be the effects of changed storage times in different water reservoirs along the landare the main barriers and challenges related to predicting climate change impacts and feedbacks along the land-ocean continuum?Reformulated What are the main barriers and challenges related to predicting climate change impacts along the land-ocean continuum?Novel F4.How does rapid How can researchers and management agencies communicate the results of monitoring and assessments in ways that are meaningful to stakeholders, will inform policy decisions, and will engage communities?