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Fertility Intention for Two or More Children among Childbearing-Age Adults under China’s Changing Fertility Policies and Economic Development from 2010 to 2021

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Abstract

China has been experiencing below-replacement fertility rates for decades prompting concerns about the rapid aging of the population and a dwindling labour supply. This paper examines the effects of micro-level and macro-level factors on fertility intentions in China from 2010 to 2021. The analyses utilize repeated cross-sectional data from the nationally representative Chinese General Social Survey, focusing on adults of childbearing age. A multilevel logistic regression approach is employed. The findings indicate that economic status, at both the individual and provincial levels, significantly shapes individuals’ intentions regarding having two or more children. Those with higher individual economic status are more inclined to have multiple children, while individuals residing in provinces with higher mean incomes are less likely to have two or more children compared to those in provinces with lower mean incomes. Notably, the long-term impact of the one-child policy on intentions to have two or more children is particularly pronounced for urban residents and individuals from provinces that rigorously implemented the one-child policy. Additionally, the study identifies spatial differentiation in fertility intentions.

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Data Availability

The datasets presented in this article can be accessed from the Chinese National Survey Data Archive (http://www.cnsda.org/).

Notes

  1. Personal attitude towards gender was calculated from five questions. Respondents were asked whether they agree or disagree with the following statements: (1) Men should focus on their career, while women should focus on family; (2) Men are better than women; (3) A good marriage is better than a good job; (4) Women should be fired earlier than men if economy gets worse; and (5) Husband and wife should share housework equally (this one is reversed). Points awarded for Completely disagree, Disagree, Neutral, Agree, and Completely agree were 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 respectively. The scale of personal attitude towards gender was constructed by summing the unweighted points from these questions. A higher score indicates a higher level of unequal personal attitude towards gender.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 132 Waihuan East Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, 510000, China

    Zhixin Feng, Bin Wang, Yuting Dai, Wei Zhu & Rui Dong

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  1. Zhixin Feng
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  2. Bin Wang
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  3. Yuting Dai
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  4. Wei Zhu
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  5. Rui Dong
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Correspondence to Rui Dong.

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Feng, Z., Wang, B., Dai, Y. et al. Fertility Intention for Two or More Children among Childbearing-Age Adults under China’s Changing Fertility Policies and Economic Development from 2010 to 2021. Appl. Spatial Analysis 17, 753–777 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-024-09564-z

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