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Quantify the impacts of climate variability and anthropogenic activities on runoff: With an improved double mass curve method

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Abstract

Quantitative assessments of the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on runoff help us to better understand the mechanisms of hydrological processes. This study analyzed the dynamics of mountainous runoff in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River Basin (USRB) and its sub-catchments, and quantified the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using the improved double mass curve (IDMC) method, which comprehensively considers the effects of precipitation and evapotranspiration on runoff, instead of only considering precipitation as before. The results indicated that the annual runoff depth in the USRB showed a slightly increased trend from 1961 to 2018, and sub-catchments were increased in the west and decreased in the east. The seasonal distribution pattern of runoff depth in the USRB and its eight sub-catchments all showed the largest in summer, followed by autumn and spring, and the smallest in winter with an increasing trend. Quantitative assessment results using the IDMC method showed that the runoff change in the USRB is more significantly affected by climate change, however, considerable differences are evident in sub-catchments. This study further developed and improved the method of runoff attribution analysis conducted at watershed scale, and these results will contribute to the ecological protection and sustainable utilization of water resources in the USRB and similar regions.

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Data availability

Thanks to the Water Resources Management Bureau of Shiyang River Basin in China for providing measured runoff data (http://www.yrcc.gov.cnl). The meteorological data was provided by the China Meteorological Data Network (http://data.cma.cn). Land-use data were obtained from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (http://www.dcres.cn). Socioeconomic data were obtained from the statistical yearbooks for all counties and districts in the city of Wuwei.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou, 730070, China

    Junju Zhou, Lanting Yang & Wei Wei

  2. College of Earth and Environment Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China

    Dongxiang Xue

  3. Gansu Engineering Research Center of Land Utilization and Comprehension Consolidation, Lanzhou, 730070, China

    Junju Zhou, Chunfang Liu & Wei Wei

  4. Key Laboratory of Resource Environment and Sustainable Development of Oasis, Gansu Province, Lanzhou, 730070, China

    Junju Zhou, Chunfang Liu & Wei Wei

  5. College of Social Development and Public Administration, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou, 730070, China

    Chunfang Liu

  6. Tourism School, Lanzhou University of Arts and Science, Lanzhou, 730000, China

    Xuemei Yang

  7. Institute of Geology and Geophysics, CAS, Beijing, 100029, China

    Yaru Zhao

Authors
  1. Junju Zhou
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  2. Dongxiang Xue
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  3. Lanting Yang
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  4. Chunfang Liu
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  5. Wei Wei
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  7. Yaru Zhao
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Correspondence to Dongxiang Xue.

Additional information

Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.42361005, No.41861034, No.41661040, No.32060373

Author: Zhou Junju (1972–), Associate Professor, specialized in climate and land use/cover change and ecohydrology.

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Zhou, J., Xue, D., Yang, L. et al. Quantify the impacts of climate variability and anthropogenic activities on runoff: With an improved double mass curve method. J. Geogr. Sci. 33, 2237–2256 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-023-2174-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-023-2174-y

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