Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Risk posed to vegetation net primary productivity by drought on the Mongolian Plateau

  • Research Articles
  • Published:
Journal of Geographical Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The increasing frequency of recent droughts has an adverse effect on the ecosystem of the Mongolian Plateau. The growth condition of NPP is considered an indicator of the ecological function. Therefore, identifying the relationship between NPP and drought can assist in the prevention of drought-associated disasters and the conservation of the ecological environment of the Mongolian Plateau. This study used the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model to simulate the NPP capacity of the Mongolian Plateau between 1982 and 2015, as well as drought indicators (drought probability, vulnerability, and risk) to explore the drought risk of NPP. The findings pointed to an overall increase in NPP with regional variances; however, the NPP rate in Inner Mongolia was considerably higher than that in Mongolia. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) showed an overall downward trend, with Inner Mongolia experiencing a substantially lower rate of decline than Mongolia. The areas most likely to experience drought were primarily in the center and north while the areas with the highest drought vulnerability were primarily in the northeast, center, and southeast. Mongolia showed a higher probability of drought compared to Inner Mongolia. Drought-prone regions of the Mongolian Plateau increased during the 21st century while drought-vulnerable areas increased and shifted from north to south. Alpine grasslands and coniferous forests were least vulnerable to drought, while other vegetation types experienced temporal variation. In the 21st century, the primary determinants of drought risk shifted from precipitation and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to temperature and relative humidity.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • AghaKouchak A, Cheng L, Mazdiyasni O et al., 2014. Global warming and changes in risk of concurrent climate extremes: Insights from the 2014 California drought. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(24): 8847–8852.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anderegg W R L, Schwalm C, Biondi F et al., 2015. Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models. Science, 349(6247): 528–532.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bao G, Bao Y, Qin Z et al., 2016. Modeling net primary productivity of terrestrial ecosystems in the semi-arid climate of the Mongolian Plateau using LSWI-based 3’CASA ecosystem model. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 46: 84–93.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bao G, Chen J, Chopping M et al., 2019. Dynamics of net primary productivity on the Mongolian Plateau: Joint regulations of phenology and drought. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 81: 85–97.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bejagam V, Sharma A, 2022. Impact of climatic changes and anthropogenic activities on ecosystem net primary productivity in India during 2001–2019. Ecological Informatics, 70: 101732.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Breshears D D, Cobb N S, Rich P M et al., 2005. Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 102(42): 15144–15148.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cao X, Feng Y, Shi Z, 2020. Spatio-temporal variations in drought with remote sensing from the Mongolian Plateau during 1982–2018. Chinese Geographical Science, 30(6): 1081–1094.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen P Y, Welsh C, Hamann A, 2010. Geographic variation in growth response of Douglas-fir to interannual climate variability and projected climate change. Global Change Biology, 16(12): 3374–3385.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen X, Zeng Y, 2016. Spatial and temporal variability of the net primary production (NPP) and its relationship with climate factors in subtropical mountainous and hilly regions of China: A case study in Hunan province. Acta Geographica Sinica, 71(1): 35–48. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen Y N, Li Y P, Li Z et al., 2022. Analysis of the impact of global climate change on dryland areas. Advances in Earth Science, 37(2): 111–119. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Crabtree R, Potter C, Mullen R et al., 2009. A modeling and spatio-temporal analysis framework for monitoring environmental change using NPP as an ecosystem indicator. Remote Sensing of Environment, 113(7): 1486–1496.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dai A, 2011. Drought under global warming: a review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2(1): 45–65.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dai A, Lamb P J, Trenberth K E et al., 2004. The recent Sahel drought is real. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 24(11): 1323–1331.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding R, Shi W. 2022. Contributions of climate change to cereal yields in Tibet, 1993–2017. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 32(1): 101–116.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding Y, Xu J, Wang X et al., 2020. Spatial and temporal effects of drought on Chinese vegetation under different coverage levels. Science of the Total Environment, 716(6247): 137166.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Du P, Arndt S K, Farrell C, 2019. Is plant survival on green roofs related to their drought response, water use or climate of origin? Science of the Total Environment, 667(June 1): 25–32.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ebi K L, Bowen K. 2015. Extreme events as sources of health vulnerability: Drought as an example. Weather and Climate Extremes, 11(C): 95–102.

    Google Scholar 

  • Elkouk A, Pokhrel Y, Satoh Y et al., 2022. Implications of changes in climate and human development on 21st-century global drought risk. Journal of Environmental Management, 317: 115378.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fierer N, McCain C M, Meir P et al., 2011. Microbes do not follow the elevational diversity patterns of plants and animals. Ecology, 92(4): 797–804.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gao Q, Guo Y, Xu H et al., 2016. Climate change and its impacts on vegetation distribution and net primary productivity of the alpine ecosystem in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Science of the Total Environment, 554/555(June): 34–41.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo B, Zang W, Yang F et al., 2020. Spatial and temporal change patterns of net primary productivity and its response to climate change in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China from 2000 to 2015. Journal of Arid Land, 12(1): 1–17.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo D, Song X, Hu R et al., 2021. Grassland type-dependent spatiotemporal characteristics of productivity in Inner Mongolia and its response to climate factors. Science of the Total Environment, 775: 145644.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He Q, Ju W, Dai S et al., 2021. Drought risk of global terrestrial gross primary productivity over the last 40 years detected by a remote sensing-driven process model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 126(6): e2020JG00594–4.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jansson J K, Hofmockel K S, 2020. Soil microbiomes and climate change. Nature Reviews Microbiology, 18(1): 35–46.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang X, Bai J. 2021. Predicting and assessing changes in NPP based on multi-scenario land use and cover simulations on the Loess Plateau. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 31(7): 977–996.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kang M C, Zhu L P, Xu H et al., 2019. Modelling the responses of carbon and water fluxes with climate change for a poplar plantation in northern China based on the biome-BGC model. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 39(7): 2378–2390. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Li C, Zhou M, Dou T et al., 2021. Convergence of global hydrothermal pattern leads to an increase in vegetation net primary productivity. Ecological Indicators, 132: 108282.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li K, Tong Z, Liu X et al., 2020. Quantitative assessment and driving force analysis of vegetation drought risk to climate change: Methodology and application in Northeast China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 282: 107865.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li X Z, Liu X D, 2012. A modeling study on drought trend in the Sino-Mongolian arid and semiarid regions in the 21st century. Arid Zone Research, 29(2): 262–272. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu T T, Yang X X, Ye X C et al., 2022. Effects of human activities on terrestrial vegetation coverage change of Poyang Lake Basin during 2000–2020. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 42(4): 320–329. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu X, Tian Z, Zhang A et al., 2019. Impacts of climate on spatiotemporal variations in vegetation NDVI from 1982–2015 in Inner Mongolia, China. Sustainability, 11(3): 768.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Y Y, Evans J P, McCabe M F et al., 2013. Changing climate and overgrazing are decimating Mongolian steppes. PloS One, 8(2): e57599.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lu N, Wilske B, Ni J et al., 2009. Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005: Trends at regional, biome and local scales. Environmental Research Letters, 4(4): 045006.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lv Z, Li S, Peng Z et al., 2021. Sensitivity of vegetation responses to drought in Mongolia. Geographical Research, 40(11): 13. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Nandintsetseg B, Boldgiv B, Chang J et al., 2021. Risk and vulnerability of Mongolian grasslands under climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 16(3): 034035.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nandintsetseg B, Greene J S, Goulden C E, 2007. Trends in extreme daily precipitation and temperature near Lake HövHövsgöl, Mongolia. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 27(3): 341–347.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Orwig D A, Abrams M D, 1997. Variation in radial growth responses to drought among species, site, and canopy strata. Trees, 11(8): 474–484.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pachauri R K, Allen M R, Barros V R et al., 2014. Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland and IPCC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pasho E, Camarero J J, de Luis M et al., 2012. Factors driving growth responses to drought in Mediterranean forests. European Journal of Forest Research, 131(6): 1797–1807.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Payne N J, Cameron D A, Leblanc J D et al., 2019. Carbon storage and net primary productivity in Canadian boreal mixed wood stands. Journal of Forestry Research, 30(5): 1667–1678.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pei Z, Fang S, Wang L et al., 2020. Comparative analysis of drought indicated by the SPI and SPEI at various timescales in Inner Mongolia, China. Water, 12(7): 1925.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piao S, Nan H, Huntingford C et al., 2014. Evidence for a weakening relationship between interannual temperature variability and northern vegetation activity. Nature Communications, 5(1): 5018.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qi G, Bai H, Zhao T et al., 2021. Sensitivity and areal differentiation of vegetation responses to hydrothermal dynamics on the northern and southern slopes of the Qinling Mountains in Shaanxi province. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 31(6): 785–801.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shi S, Wang F, Jin K et al., 2019. Temporal and spatial characteristics of drought based on SPEI in northern China from 1981 to 2017. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 37(4): 215–222.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sternberg T, Thomas D, Middleton N, 2011. Drought dynamics on the Mongolian steppe, 1970–2006. International Journal of Climatology, 31(12): 1823–1830.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stocker T F, Qin D, Plattner G K et al., 2013. Climate change 2013. The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tong S, Lai Q, Zhang J et al., 2018. Spatiotemporal drought variability on the Mongolian Plateau from 1980–2014 based on the SPEI-PM, intensity analysis and Hurst exponent. Science of the Total Environment, 615: 1557–1565.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Oijen M, Beer C, Cramer W et al., 2013. A novel probabilistic risk analysis to determine the vulnerability of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Environmental Research Letters, 8(1): 015032.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vicente-Serrano S M, Beguería S, López-Moreno J I, 2010. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of Climate, 23(7): 1696–1718.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vicente-Serrano S M, Gouveia C, Camarero J J et al., 2013. Response of vegetation to drought time-scales across global land biomes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(1): 52–57.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang J, Li Y, Wang R et al., 2012. Preliminary analysis on the demand and review of progress in the field of meteorological drought research. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 30(4): 497–508. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang P, Huang M, Zhai P, 2022. New progress and enlightenment on different types of drought changes from IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 80(1): 168–175. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wei X, Yang J, Luo P et al., 2022. Assessment of the variation and influencing factors of vegetation NPP and carbon sink capacity under different natural conditions. Ecological Indicators, 138: 108834.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xiao C W, Zhou G S, Ma F Y, 2002. Effect of water supply change on morphology and growth of dominant plants in Maowusu sandland. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 26(1): 69–76. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Xu C, McDowell N G, Fisher R A et al., 2019a. Increasing impacts of extreme droughts on vegetation productivity under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 9(12): 948–953.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu H, Wang X, Zhao C et al., 2019b. Responses of ecosystem water use efficiency to meteorological drought under different biomes and drought magnitudes in northern China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 278: 107660.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu H N, Wang J L, Peng X M et al., 2022. Responses of radial growth of Juniperus przewalskii to different droughts over the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, China. The Journal of Applied Ecology, 33(8): 2097–2104.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu D, Li Y, Yin B et al., 2022. Spatiotemporal variation of net primary productivity and its response to drought in Inner Mongolian desert steppe. Global Ecology and Conservation, 33: e01991.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang J, Pan X L, Gao Z Q et al., 2006. Carbon uptake and change in net primary productivity of oasis-desert ecosystem in arid western China with remote sensing technique. Acta Geographica Sinica, 61(1): 15–25. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang J, Zhu L, Li G et al., 2022. Distribution patterns of SOC/TN content and their relationship with topography, vegetation and climatic factors in China’s north-south transitional zone. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 32(4): 645–662.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang M, Chen Y, Shen Y et al., 2019a. Tracking climate change in Central Asia through temperature and precipitation extremes. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 29(1): 3–28.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Y, Zhang Y, Jin Z et al., 2019b. The temporal and spatial characteristics of summer drought in the Loess Plateau based on SPEI. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 28(7): 1322–1331. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao J, Zhang Q, Zhu X et al., 2020. Drought risk assessment in China: Evaluation framework and influencing factors. Geography and Sustainability, 1(3): 220–228.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Geographical Science, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot, 010022, China

    Jinyuan Ren, Siqin Tong, Yuhai Bao, Gang Bao & Xiaojun Huang

  2. Institute of Grassland Research of CAAS, Hohhot, 010000, China

    Xiaomeng Guo

  3. Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of Disaster and Ecological Security on the Mongolian Plateau, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot, 010022, China

    Siqin Tong

  4. Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot, 010022, China

    Yuhai Bao, Gang Bao & Xiaojun Huang

Authors
  1. Jinyuan Ren
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Xiaomeng Guo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Siqin Tong
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Yuhai Bao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Gang Bao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Xiaojun Huang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Siqin Tong.

Additional information

Foundation: Natural Science Foundation of Inner Mongolia, No.2023MS04001; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.42061070, No.42261144746; Program for Young Talents of Science and Technology in Universities of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, No.NJYT23018; Innovative Project of Young “Grasslands Talents”; Fundamental Research Funds for the Inner Mongolia Normal University, No.2022JBBJ013; No.2022JBTD011

Author: Ren Jinyuan (1995–), PhD Candidate

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Ren, J., Guo, X., Tong, S. et al. Risk posed to vegetation net primary productivity by drought on the Mongolian Plateau. J. Geogr. Sci. 33, 2175–2192 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-023-2171-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-023-2171-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation