Abstract
Tobacco exposure is the major risk factor for lung cancer. Previous studies have shown that there is a correlation between tobacco consumption and lung cancer mortality, but they do not show a specific trend. This study established the polynomial distributed lags (PDLs) model to explore the distributional lag effect between tobacco consumption and lung cancer mortality by using the lung cancer mortality rate of residents in Henan Province and the annual per capita tobacco consumption data from 1992 to 2016 and adopted dynamic simulation prediction method to predict lung cancer mortality for the next 20 years. We found that per capita tobacco consumption had a 10-year lag effect on lung cancer mortality. The harm of tobacco consumption did not show in the first 4 years, but after a lag of 4 years or more, the lung cancer mortality in men was higher than that in women, with a peak effect occurring 10 years later. The prediction showed that if per capita tobacco consumption was controlled, lung cancer mortality would show a steady decline trend after 10 years. These results suggested that tobacco consumption and lung cancer mortality were asynchronous, with a lag effect of tobacco use on the occurrence of lung cancer.
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The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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Acknowledgements
We would like to acknowledge Prof. Xibin Sun, Henan provincial cancer monitoring center, PhD Kunkun Xue, and Associate Prof. Fei Chen, Business School of Zhengzhou University, for their valuable advice during the data collection and the operation of software.
Funding
This study was supported by the Key R&D and promotion projects in Henan Province (grant 212102310195). And the funding sources had no involvement in study design, collection, analysis, interpretation of data, writing of the report, or the decision to submit the article for publication.
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JL and LM collected data. LF designed the study, and CW and XD reviewed the final paper. All drafts were written by LL and commented on by all authors. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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This study is a secondary analysis of a public access dataset of the China’s Henan Province tumor monitoring center and Henan statistical yearbook. It does not contain any identifiable information of the participants. The study was reviewed and approved by the Institutional Review Boards of the School of Public Health, Zhengzhou University in China.
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Li, L., Lu, J., Dai, X. et al. The lag effect of 24-year tobacco consumption on lung cancer mortality in Henan Province, China, 1992 to 2016. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 22483–22489 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17302-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17302-y