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At-site flood frequency analysis in Brazil

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Abstract

Governmental research agencies from Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK have suggested the use of specific two- and three-parameter probability density functions (PDFs) for estimating the magnitude and frequency of annual maximum streamflow (AMS). In Brazil, there are no guidelines concerning the use of multiparameter PDFs to model AMS, with most applications relying on two-parameter distributions. Considering the worldwide promising results when using multiparameter PDFs, here we focused on the evaluation of ten PDFs to model AMS over all gauged streams of Brazil. The methodology developed for this study consisted of the: (i) acquisition of streamflow data; (ii) organization of the AMS series; (iii) screening of AMS series considering temporal and statistical criteria; (iv) fit of the following PDFs to the AMS series based on the L-moments method: Gumbel, Gamma, Generalized Logistic, Generalized Normal, Generalized Pareto, three-parameter Log-Normal, Pearson type 3, Generalized Extreme Value, Kappa, and Wakeby; (v) quantile estimation; and (vi) PDF performance assessment according to the Filliben test and the relative absolute error (RAE). Based on the almost 4 thousand AMS series considered on this study, we concluded that: (i) Gumbel and Gamma provided poor performance (more than 17% of non-satisfactory fits); (ii) the multiparameter PDFs (Wakeby and Kappa) outperformed all other PDFs; (iii) Gumbel and Generalized Extreme Value had the highest RAE values for quantile estimate; and (iv) this study contributes to the scientific advances reported in the recent statistical hydrology literature and can provide local decision makers with the necessary technical information for developing national design flood guidelines.

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Data Availability

Neither the dataset nor the code implemented to support the study is available.

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Funding

This work was supported by the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) [Grant Number 409197/2021-1] and the Rio Grande do Sul Research Foundation (FAPERGS) [Grant Number 19/2551-0001969-6]. This work was financed in part by the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES)—Finance Code 001. Authors Samuel Beskow and Carlos Rogério de Mello have received scholarships from CNPq. Author Maria Eduarda Silva da Silva has received a scholarship from Federal University of Pelotas (UFPel).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Technological Development/Postgraduate Program in Water Resources, Federal University of Pelotas, Campus Porto, 01 Gomes Carneiro Street, Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

    Marlon Heitor Kunst Valentini

  2. Center for Technological Development/Water Resources Engineering, Federal University of Pelotas, Campus Porto, 01 Gomes Carneiro Street, Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

    Samuel Beskow

  3. Engineering Center/Civil Engineering, Federal University of Pelotas, Campus Cotada, 989 Benjamin Constant Street, Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

    Tamara Leitzke Caldeira Beskow

  4. Water Resources Department, Federal University of Lavras, Lavras, Minas Gerais, Brazil

    Carlos Rogério de Mello

  5. Civil and Infrastructure Engineering Program, George Mason University, Fairfax, VG, USA

    Felício Cassalho

  6. Center for Technological Development/Water Resources Engineering, Campus Porto, 01 Gomes Carneiro Street, Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

    Maria Eduarda Silva da Silva

Authors
  1. Marlon Heitor Kunst Valentini
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  2. Samuel Beskow
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  3. Tamara Leitzke Caldeira Beskow
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  4. Carlos Rogério de Mello
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  6. Maria Eduarda Silva da Silva
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and preparation of this manuscript. Material preparation and data collection were performed by Marlon Heitor Kunst Valentini. Codes were written by Samuel Beskow. Illustrations were prepared by Tamara Leitzke Caldeira Beskow and Maria Eduarda Silva da Silva. All authors contributed to the interpretation and discussions of results. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Marlon Heitor Kunst Valentini, Samuel Beskow, Tamara Leitzke Caldeira Beskow, Carlos Rogério de Mello, Felício Cassalho, and Maria Eduarda Silva da Silva. All authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript, read, and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Samuel Beskow.

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Valentini, M.H.K., Beskow, S., Beskow, T.L.C. et al. At-site flood frequency analysis in Brazil. Nat Hazards 120, 601–618 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06231-3

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