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Assessment of regional drought vulnerability and risk using principal component analysis and a Gaussian mixture model

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Abstract

Due to the complex characteristics of drought, drought risk needs to be quantified by combining drought vulnerability and drought hazard. Recently, the major focus in drought vulnerability has been on how to calculate the weights of indicators to comprehensively quantify drought risk. In this study, principal component analysis (PCA), a Gaussian mixture model (GMM), and the equal-weighting method (EWM) were applied to objectively determine the weights for drought vulnerability assessment in Chungcheong Province, located in the west-central part of South Korea. The PCA provided larger weights for agricultural and industrial factors, whereas the GMM computed larger weights for agricultural factors than did the EWM. The drought risk was assessed by combining the drought vulnerability index (DVI) and the drought hazard index (DHI). Based on the DVI, the most vulnerable region was CCN9 in the northwestern part of the province, whereas the most drought-prone region based on the DHI was CCN12 in the southwest. Considering both DVI and DHI, the regions with the highest risk were CCN12 and CCN10 in the southern part of the province. Using the proposed PCA and GMM, we validated drought vulnerability using objective weighting methods and assessed comprehensive drought risk considering both meteorological hazard and socioeconomic vulnerability.

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Data availability

The datasets used or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to express our gratitude to the editors and reviewers for their helpful comments.

Funding

This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIT) (No. 2020R1A2C1012919).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul, 04763, Korea

    Ji Eun Kim & Jae-Hee Ryu

  2. Yeongsangang and Seomjingang Rivers Basin Head Office, K-water, Gwangju, 61949, Korea

    Jisoo Yu

  3. Department of Civil Engineering, Joongbu University, Goyang, 10279, Korea

    Joo-Heon Lee

  4. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, Ansan, 15588, Korea

    Tae-Woong Kim

Authors
  1. Ji Eun Kim
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  2. Jisoo Yu
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Contributions

Tae-Woong Kim was responsible for conceptualization. Formal analysis, investigation and writing—original draft preparation were performed by Ji Eun Kim. Ji Soo Yu was responsible for methodology and resources. Data curation was performed by Jae-Hee Ryu. Validation was performed by Joo-Heon Lee. Writing—review and editing was performed by Tae-Woong Kim and Joo-Heon Lee. Supervision was performed by Tae-Woong Kim.

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Correspondence to Tae-Woong Kim.

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The authors declared that they have no conflicts of interest to this work. We declare that we do not have any commercial or associative interest that represents a conflict of interest in connection with the work submitted.

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Kim, J.E., Yu, J., Ryu, JH. et al. Assessment of regional drought vulnerability and risk using principal component analysis and a Gaussian mixture model. Nat Hazards 109, 707–724 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04854-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04854-y

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