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Revisiting the Economics and Terrorism Nexus: Collective Deprivation, Ideology and Domestic Radicalization in the US (1948–2016)

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Abstract

Objectives

Studies generally find no relationship between economic deprivation and terrorist activities, leading to the conclusion that economic conditions have no role in the emergence of terrorist movements. The present paper challenges this conclusion. It argues that collective deprivation affects participation into terrorism, but in different directions depending on the ideology of terrorist movements: far-right terrorism should mobilize more under times of collective deprivation while far-left terrorism should mobilize more under times of collective improvement.

Methods

I tested this hypothesis on the PIRUS database about domestic terrorists (N = 1295) in the United States from 1948 to 2016. I analysed whether the proportion of far-right (versus far-left) terrorists in a given year depends on collective deprivation in the US, operationalized through long-term recession of the income and long-term growth of inequality.

Results

Hierarchical logistic regression analyses confirmed that far-right terrorism mobilizes more under periods of long-term economic deprivation, while far-left terrorism mobilizes more under improving economic conditions. Besides, the effect of collective deprivation appears to be of socio-tropic nature: it is especially determinant at the national level, rather than at the state or individual level. In contrast, results do not support the view that Islamist terrorism is affected by collective deprivation.

Conclusions

The study challenges the view that economic conditions have no role in triggering terrorist mobilization. The differential effect of collective deprivation on far-right and far-left terrorism is compatible with system-justification and backlash theories. Besides, the findings suggest that collective deprivation affects radicalization at an early phase rather than the offending phase.

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Notes

  1. Regarding the grievance argument, it remains possible that people resort to terrorism as the result, not of personal deprivation but on the behalf of economic deprivation experienced at a societal level. Yet, as presented earlier, the inconsistent relationship between collective deprivation and terrorism does not give much support to this alternative grievance argument.

  2. I also performed analyses using interpolated values between decennial estimates—which yield similar results. The author can send these analyses upon request.

  3. This method generates multiple datasets in which the missing values are filled with various predicted values based on multiple regression models including other variables from the dataset. That is, the method maximises all the available information in the dataset to estimate predictions of the missing cases. Contrarily to other methods imputation (such as interpolation or simple imputation), it does not fill the missing cases with one specific value, but with a chosen number of estimations which reflect the degree of uncertainty about the true value.

  4. For convenience reasons, I do not detail in Table 3 the estimates related to the individual-level variables, which are mostly similar to those of model VI in Table 2. The author can send the results upon request.

    Table 3 Unstandardized coefficients from hierarchical logistic regression analyses of right-wing radical exposure (left-wing as reference)
    Full size table

  5. One could argue that even more caution is required in the interpretation of the nation-level standard errors in this model since random effects are now at the level of years and states. Yet, I also tested a similar model with year random effects, which yields similar results.

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Acknowledgements

I would like to thank three reviewers for their insightful comments that greatly contributed to improving the final version of the paper. I am also very grateful to Raul Magni-Berton, Peter S. Henne, Céline Belot and Laurent Bègue for their helpful suggestions. This research is part of a Ph.D. funded by the Communauté Université Grenoble Alpes.

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  1. PACTE, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Science Po Grenoble, School of Political Studies, 38000, Grenoble, France

    Simon Varaine

  2. Sciences Po Grenoble, 1030 Avenue Centrale, 38400, Saint-Martin-d’Hères, France

    Simon Varaine

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Varaine, S. Revisiting the Economics and Terrorism Nexus: Collective Deprivation, Ideology and Domestic Radicalization in the US (1948–2016). J Quant Criminol 36, 667–699 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-019-09422-z

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