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Macro-Regional Economic Structural Change Driven by Micro-founded Technological Innovation Diffusion: An Agent-Based Computational Economic Modeling Approach

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Abstract

This paper introduces an agent-based computational economic modeling approach into an input–output analytical framework and proposes diffusion of technological innovation behavior into the simulation models. A large number of heterogeneous firms with macro-regional economic frameworks are included to perform policy simulation scenarios to investigate the impact of diffusing technological innovations on the dynamic changes in the regional economic structures of major global economies (i.e., China, Japan, the United States, Russia, India, and the European Union). This study reveals that process innovation may be more conducive to promoting the transfer of resource elements between regions for China, the EU, Japan, India, and Russia. However, for the U.S., product innovation may facilitate upgrading its industrial structure. Furthermore, from 2012 to 2030, for these six economies, the output share of the primary industry will likely decline by varying degrees, while the output share of the tertiary industry will show an uptrend. The employment share in the tertiary industry in these six economies decreased. Another important finding is that differentiated technological innovation-driven policies must be adopted within the context of global economic governance. Moreover, each economy should choose a technological innovation mode that is suitable for its economic development. Thus, these findings provide an important theoretical basis for formulating global economic governance policies in the future.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful for the financial support provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 41801118, 71874185, and the Ministry of Education of Humanities and Social Science Project of China under Grant No. 18YJC790237, and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No. 2019M662017, and the Soft Science Research Program of Zhejiang Province under Grant No. 2020C35037.

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  1. School of Economics and Trade, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangzhou, 510006, Guangdong, China

    Zhangqi Zhong

  2. School of Economics and Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, Jiangsu, China

    Lingyun He

  3. Jiangsu International Energy Policy Research Center of Colleges and Universities, Xuzhou, 221116, China

    Lingyun He

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Zhong, Z., He, L. Macro-Regional Economic Structural Change Driven by Micro-founded Technological Innovation Diffusion: An Agent-Based Computational Economic Modeling Approach. Comput Econ 59, 471–525 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-020-10089-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-020-10089-z

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