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Does Hopelessness Accurately Predict How Bad You Will Feel in the Future? Initial Evidence of Affective Forecasting Errors in Individuals with Elevated Suicide Risk

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Abstract

Background

Forecasts about the future can dictate actions and behaviors performed in the present moment. Given that periods of elevated acute suicide risk often consist of elevated negative affect and hopelessness, individuals during these periods may more bias-prone and make decisions (e.g., suicide attempts) based on inaccurate affective forecasts about their futures (e.g., overestimating future pain/psychiatric symptom severity). The aim of this study was to examine the accuracy of hopelessness in predicting future feelings—an important step for understanding possible decision-making biases that may occur near elevated periods of acute suicide risk.

Methods

Secondary longitudinal data analyses were performed on two randomized clinical trial samples of active-duty military personnel (Ns = 97 and 172) with past-week suicide ideation and/or a lifetime suicide attempt history.

Results

Results were consistent with the affective forecasting literature; in both samples, individuals overestimated future pain.

Conclusions

Results from two studies offer preliminary evidence for the existence of affective forecasting errors near the time of a suicide attempt/during periods of elevated suicide risk.

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Notes

  1. Our pattern of findings remained the same across all models when examining suicide attempt history as a moderator.

  2. A total of 172 participants completed baseline measures and 152 were eligible (Rudd et al., 2012). We used all 172 participants in our analyses and imputed missing data points.

  3. Similar to Study 1, our pattern of findings remained the same across all models when examining suicide attempt history as a moderator.

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Acknowledgements

Research reported in this publication was supported by Military Suicide Research Consortium (MSRC), an effort supported by the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs (Award No. W81XWH-10-2-0181, PI: Bryan); the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs through the Department of Defense Broad Agency Announcement for Extramural Medical Research (Award No. W81WXH-18-2-0022, PI: Bryan); and the Department of Defense (Award No. W81XWH-09-1-0569, PI: Rudd). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official positions or views of the U.S. Government, the Department of Defense, or the Department of the Army.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Psychology, University of Southern Mississippi, Hattiesburg, MS, 39406, USA

    Brian W. Bauer, Aleksandr T. Karnick, Lucas A. Keefer & Daniel W. Capron

  2. Behavioral Health Partial Hospital Program, McLean Hospital/Harvard Medical School, Belmont, MA, USA

    Melanie A. Hom

  3. Department of Psychology, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA

    Caroline J. Charpentier

  4. Department of Psychology, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, USA

    M. David Rudd

  5. Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Health, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, Columbus, OH, USA

    Craig J. Bryan

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  1. Brian W. Bauer
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Contributions

BWB developed the manuscript concept. Study design and data collection were performed by CJB and MDR. BWB, MAH, ATK, and LAK performed the data analyses. BWB, MAH, and ATK drafted the paper and DWC and CJC provided critical revisions. All authors approved the final version of the manuscript for submission.

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Correspondence to Brian W. Bauer.

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Conflict of Interest

Brian W. Bauer, Melanie A. Hom, Aleksandr T. Karnick, Caroline J. Charpentier, Lucas A. Keefer, Daniel W. Capron, M. David Rudd, and Craig J. Bryan declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study.

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Bauer, B.W., Hom, M.A., Karnick, A.T. et al. Does Hopelessness Accurately Predict How Bad You Will Feel in the Future? Initial Evidence of Affective Forecasting Errors in Individuals with Elevated Suicide Risk. Cogn Ther Res 46, 686–703 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10608-021-10285-7

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