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Detection of anthropogenically driven trends in Arctic amplification

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Abstract

The driving mechanism of Arctic amplification (AA) is so complex that no consistent and definitive conclusion has been formed yet. In particular, the internally and externally driven trends of AA have not been distinguished using observation-based methods. Given that the Arctic is more sensitive than other regions to anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases and other external forcings, we focus on separating anthropogenically driven trends from the Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) changes during 1979–2017 to quantify the contribution of anthropogenic effects on AA, with detection and attribution converted to probability distribution functions. Results indicate that the Arctic coast of the Siberian Great Plains, from the Barents Sea to the Kara Sea and eastward to the Bering Strait, has been warming most significantly, and is mainly dominated by anthropogenically driven trends. From 1979 to 2017, the minimum anthropogenically driven warming in most parts of the Arctic Ocean exceeds 2℃, especially the Kara Sea area, where the anthropogenically driven warming is significant, reaching 4℃. In addition, the minimum anthropogenic contributions exceed 60% in most parts of the Arctic Circle and are more than 80% of the warming trend in (75–90° N, 150–180° W). In 140° W–140° E Arctic region, the anthropogenically driven trend is the most remarkable, at 0.82℃ / decade, accounting for 84.5% of the measured warming trend. Meanwhile, the anthropogenically driven trend accelerates most rapidly in this area (0–140° W, 60–90° N).

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Data availability

The NCEP-2 data are available for download: (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis2.gaussian.html).

The ERA-Interim data analysed during the current study are from (http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/interim-full-daily/levtype=sfc/).

Code availability

Not applicable.

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Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge the supports of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41875096), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFC1502303), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42130610, 41875083, 41975091, 41905060).

Funding

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41875096), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFC1502303), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China ( 42130610, 41875083, 41975091, 41905060).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China

    Yu Wang, Taichen Feng, Fei Ji, Shankai Tang & Guolin Feng

  2. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China

    Yu Wang

  3. Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province / Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of China Meteorological Administration, Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou, 730000, China

    Pengcheng Yan

  4. Department of Physical Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, 225002, China

    Guolin Feng

  5. Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Zhuhai, 519000, China

    Guolin Feng

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  1. Yu Wang
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Correspondence to Fei Ji.

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Wang, Y., Yan, P., Feng, T. et al. Detection of anthropogenically driven trends in Arctic amplification. Climatic Change 169, 41 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03296-6

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