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Modelling correlation between Gutenberg–Richter parameters a and b in PSHA

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Abstract

It is a common practice to describe the activity of a seismogenic source using Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relation. The use of this relation includes the statistical determination of three parameters, two of which will be discussed in this paper: the exceedance rate of a threshold magnitude and the rate of decay of the exceedance rate with magnitude. The third parameter, M max , which defines the maximum assumed magnitude, will not be treated here. Due to the methods used to estimate the values of these parameters under certain circumstances, their statistical estimators turn out to be correlated. In this paper we explore: (1) the impact of this correlation on seismic hazard for some simple, canonical cases; and (2) practical ways in which this correlation can be propagated through the seismic hazard calculations. We conclude that the impact of correlation on seismic hazard estimates is moderate and that ignoring correlation is frequently a conservative decision. Also, we propose a way in which correlation can be propagated into seismic hazard calculations within the framework of logic trees.

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Acknowledgements

Authors are grateful to Professor J. Bommer for his many comments and suggestions, which improved considerably the original manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Instituto de Ingeniería, UNAM, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510, Coyoacán, DF, Mexico

    Mario Ordaz

  2. Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy

    Ezio Faccioli

  3. Studio Geotecnico Italiano, Milan, Italy

    Ezio Faccioli

Authors
  1. Mario Ordaz
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  2. Ezio Faccioli
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Correspondence to Mario Ordaz.

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Ordaz, M., Faccioli, E. Modelling correlation between Gutenberg–Richter parameters a and b in PSHA. Bull Earthquake Eng 16, 1829–1846 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0274-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0274-8

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