Sketching sustainable land use in Europe by 2040: a multi-stakeholder participatory approach to elicit cross-sectoral visions

The continuously growing global demands on a finite land resource will require better strategic policies and management of trade-offs to avoid conflicts between different land-use sectors. Visions of the future can support strategic planning by stimulating dialogue, building a consensus on shared priorities and providing long-term targets. We present a novel approach to elicit stakeholder visions of future desired land use, which was applied with a broad range of experts to develop cross-sectoral visions in Europe. The approach is based on (i) combination of software tools and facilitation techniques to stimulate engagement and creativity; (ii) methodical selection of stakeholders; (iii) use of land attributes to deconstruct the multifaceted sectoral visions into land-use changes that can be clustered into few cross-sectoral visions, and (iv) a rigorous iterative process. Three cross-sectoral visions of sustainable land use in Europe in 2040 emerged from applying the approach in participatory workshops involving experts in nature conservation, recreation, agriculture, forestry, settlements, energy, and water. The three visions—Best Land in Europe, Regional Connected and Local Multifunctional—shared a wish to achieve a land use that is sustainable through multifunctionality, resource use efficiency, controlled urban growth, rural renewal and widespread nature. However, they differ on the scale at which land services are provided—EU-wide, regional or local—reflecting the land-sparing versus land-sharing debate. We discuss the usefulness of the approach, as well as the challenges posed and solutions offered by the visions to support strategic land-use planning.

Local Multifunctional -shared a wish to achieve a land use that is sustainable through multifunctionality, resource use efficiency, controlled urban growth, rural renewal and widespread nature. However, they differ on the scale at which land services are provided -EU-wide, regional or local -reflecting the land sparing versus land sharing debate. We discuss the usefulness of the approach, as well as the challenges posed and solutions offered by the visions to support strategic land use planning. We would like to thank you very much for managing our manuscript, and the reviewer#4 for the insightful and constructive comments. We believe that they have helped to improve our manuscript substantially. We hope that you too will find that this revised manuscript is now ready for its publication in 'Regional Environmental Change'.

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(included in Online Resource 2) using the material collected in the workshops (see Table 1).

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The researchers determined for each cell whether the vision expressed a future change (i.e.

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increase, decrease, no change) compared to the present. They also noted a level of confidence 252 in their interpretation (high, medium, low), and detailed where evidence was found in the 253 workshop materials for the sake of transparency.

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The land use types considered in the matrix were: built-up areas (separately for cities, towns

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The three shared visions across land use sectors are named Best Land in Europe, Regional

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Connected and Local Multifunctional to symbolise the main differences in the spatial scale.

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The visions are outlined in Table 3 An overview of the main differences among the three visions is presented in Table 4.

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Compared to these previous exercises, our approach covers all Europe and is cross-sectoral.

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The cross-sectoral visions pose important challenges in terms of the policy, strategies and 379 governance, technological developments and changes in lifestyle needed to achieve them.

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However, they also offer solutions, as we discussed below for each of the visions.

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Regional Connected moves away from specialisation to achieve regional self-sufficiency across 402 multiple services. This implies intensifying agricultural and forestry production across

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The vision for the smallest scale is Local Multifunctionality, which implies a land-sharing

General reply to editor and reviewer #4
Dear Editor and reviewer #4, We would like to thank you very much for managing our manuscript, and the reviewer for the insightful and constructive comments. We believe that they have helped to improve our manuscript substantially. We hope that you too will find that the manuscript is now ready for its publication in 'Regional Environmental Change'. Below you can find our responses (in green), to all comments and suggestions made by you (in black).

Specific response to reviewer #4 :
I have copied the text as it was in the email received on 20 th January 2018.
Reviewer #4: Purpose of the paper is missing. Neighther from the titel or content is not clear wheather paper wants to primarily inform about the method and process and give a hint on content or method and vontent or something else.
We accept the reviewer's suggestion to be more explicit about the objective of the paper. We have changed the title accordingly and modified the last paragraph of the Introduction section.
This is the topic of other paper that it is not yet published. Whereas relevant, it was not crucial for the participatory approach, and will need to be explained (no reference available) making even longer this already long paper. So we have decided not to include this issue.  Table 3 instead of Table 2 p. 29: caption should be Table 2 instead of Table 1 p. 30: caption should be Table 3 instead of Table 1   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  31  32  33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  42  43  44  45  46  47  48  49  50  51  52  53  54  55  56  57  58  59  60  61  62  63 64 65     Multifunctionality is central and understood as different land uses within the same plot. Some protected areas are opened to recreation, sustainable production and other functions, but others, including marine areas, are strictly protected.

Natural Value Landscape (NVL)
Overall theme is multifunctional use of the landscape, being Nature the centre of our society. It is the quality of the land use what changes rather than the land use itself. Green and blue networks ensure interconnectivity.

Ostrom 2040
Main focus is an open and more accessible landscape for the people with a focus on self-sufficiency, although nature conservation is still needed.
Past to the Future Land is multifunctional, respecting the regional context and environmental limitations (energy and water will be major issues). Significant decrease in the land dedicated to agriculture, and increase in forests and nature. Big investments therefore in green corridors in cities.
Food, bioenergy and timber production

Value Land Use
The main aim is to increase the value added production for each piece of land. For example, fertile land can under no circumstance be used for housing.

Foodscapes
It considers food security as the most important challenge in 2040. This implies a sustainable and substantial increase in food production, that should have high quality, and reduction of the individual consumption of food.

Forest for Rural Society (FORUS)
The aim is to have sustainable forest management in 2040. The best way to achieve this is through locally controlled forestry and a strong framework at EU level.
Right place, Right amount, Right functions (3R'S) In 2040 any spatial area will have to produce a wide range of goods and services. The ideal solution would be to have multiplurality of landscapes with multifunctional land use; food security would require as well to have intensive agriculture.  Best Land in Europe Regional connected Local multifunctional

Main aspiration
To maximise the value of existing land by using the optimal locations in the EU.
To keep a regional coherence by exploiting most land and providing goods and services within a well-connected region To create local self-sufficiency by optimising the use of land and the supply of goods and services on the spot.
Urban areas Peri-urban areas disappear, making way for other land functions around the cities, such as urban agriculture, recreation, nature.
Cities are compact, with vertical growth, and very well connected with surrounding towns or villages and nature areas in the region.
New villages emerge in former forests and on abandoned rural land.

Agriculture
The intensity of agricultural production, including biofuels, varies depending on the agroclimatic conditions. For example, in western and central Europe, production is intensive, while Alpine and Mediterranean regions see a decline in agriculture or extensification.
The overall intensity of agriculture decreases with a focus on sustainable production, including a large increase in High Nature Value farming as part of the green network.
Food is produced locally and new practices allow food to be grown everywhere (in cities, forest and nature areas). Consequently, intensity increases in some areas but may decrease in traditional agricultural regions.

Forestry
Industrial highly productive forest dominates in northern and central Europe, whilst regions that are biophysically less suitable or face climate change pressures, such as the Mediterranean, are more extensively managed.
Forest cover increases through the conversion of marginal agricultural land to productive forests supplying the local region. This includes green corridors and forests planted to mitigate carbon emissions.
Forest cover increases through the conversion of marginal land and an increase in agroforestry. Multifunctional mixed wood production is everywhere to cover local demand for all the services delivered by forests.

Nature
Some nature areas with emblematic endangered species become strict conservation areas: isolated and with no human interference. Other areas are managed for recreation.
Nature is encouraged and managed everywhere (in cities, agricultural areas and production forests) with an emphasis on green and blue infrastructure connecting different areas.
Protected areas are open to sustainable food production and forestry where it helps to meet local demand. Management is focused on increasing the number of goods and services delivered.

Green connections
Green connectivity is increased by restoring nature areas with high biodiversity value; there is a special emphasis on wetland rehabilitation.
There are big investments in green and blue corridors.
Nature is pervasive and ubiquitous (even in dense urban areas such as park systems, green rings, green facades and roofs or converted disused transport sites).

Viability in rural areas
Rural areas suffering from severe socio-economic decline do not get further policy support and are abandoned and used for nature.
Rural areas are well connected with big cities, keeping the regional coherence.
Rural viability increases as a result of the strong diversification of activities, creating new opportunities for urbanites who want to start part-time farming. New ways of living appear, such as communal farms. Best Land in Europe Optimal use of land is crucial to ensuring maximum production of food and other natural products. Land across the EU is matched to the most appropriate use.
A Europe in a globalised world with intensive movement of products, money and people and good accessibility linking distant urban centres.

Political collaboration exists between and beyond the EU Member
States. There is intense global competition for resources requiring more efficient land use to meet society's needs. Across the EU, land provides for multiple functions, in a well-planned, well-ordered and zoned use of space. Some land is used for multiple purposes. Other land is better suited to just one function, leading to specialisation. Regional Connected Society's needs are met regionally in a coherent relationship between people and their resources. In a non-globalised economy, there is a move away from regional specialisation.
A Europe that has a greater appreciation of the resources that are available regionally and of the value of trying to live without external inputs, with the help of technological developments. Serving the regional population and keeping regional coherence is a key priority. This reduces the need for transportation and its negative effects. Territorial cohesion at the regional scale does not isolate communities or close borders, but creates local autonomy, more resilience, more involvement by the population, and more democracy.

Local Multifunctional
Land functions are localised in small areas based on innovative approaches to living, working and recreation. There is high diversity in goods and services, land use and society.
A Europe that incorporates multi-functionality locally, without distinct