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Risk assessment of nitrogen runoff from rice fields under natural precipitation conditions based on different transplanting dates and water levels

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Abstract

The key point lies in revealing the impact of the sowing date and field water level on nitrogen runoff in paddy fields under natural precipitation. Based on precipitation data from 1957 to 2020 and the field-scale nitrogen degradation model, nitrogen runoff loss in paddy fields was estimated by the Simulation Model of Nitrogen Runoff Loss (SMNRL), and the effects of different agricultural management practices, such as sowing date adjustment and water level adjustment, on nitrogen runoff risk probability and extreme risk probability were calculated by the information diffusion model. The results indicated that the rice growing season was characterized by a high frequency of precipitation, during which rainfall in the fertilization stage led to an increase in nitrogen loss. Referring to precipitation and nitrogen loss patterns, BF (basal fertilizer period) and TF (tiller fertilizer period) were the crucial fertilization periods for controlling nitrogen runoff among the three rice fertilization periods. Under conventional water level treatment, the probability of nitrogen runoff risk and extreme risk decreased to 0–0.0962 and 0–0.0395, respectively, when the transplanting date was scheduled between June 1st–June 7th and June 18th–June 20th. Compared to the conventional water level treatment, the low water level treatment under TF reduced the nitrogen runoff occurrence frequency by 59.01% and the annual nitrogen runoff loss by 35.60%. Under the same water level, the risk probability and extreme risk probability of nitrogen runoff were minimized when transplanting was generally conducted between June 1st and June 10th. Accounting for the transplanting date, water level treatment and rice yield, the best management practices for transplanting are to schedule transplanting between June 1st and June 10th while utilizing a combination of BF-3 cm and TF-15 cm.

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Data related to the research are reported in the manuscript. Any additional data may be acquired from the corresponding author upon request.

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Funding

This research was funded by National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant numbers 2017YFD0301301).

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Author notes

  1. Dandan Li and Hao He contributed equally to this work

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Resource and Environment, Anhui Agriculture University, No. 130 Changjiang Xi Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230000, Anhui, China

    Dandan Li, Yue Pan & Shuyun Yang

  2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Hao He

  3. Wuhu Meteorological Administration, Wuhu, 241000, China

    Xiangcheng Wen

  4. Hefei Agricultural Environmental Science Observation and Experiment Station, Ministry of Agriculture, Hefei, 230000, China

    Shuyun Yang

  5. Anhui Key Laboratory of Farmland Ecological Conservation and Pollution Prevention and Control, Hefei, 230000, China

    Shuyun Yang

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  1. Dandan Li
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation was performed by Yue Pan. The data collection and analysis were performed by Dandan Li and Xiangcheng Wen. The chart was made by Hao He. The first and the final draft of the manuscript was written by Dandan Li and Hao He. And the manuscript was reviewed by Shuyun Yang, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Shuyun Yang.

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Li, D., He, H., Pan, Y. et al. Risk assessment of nitrogen runoff from rice fields under natural precipitation conditions based on different transplanting dates and water levels. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 2005–2016 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04744-2

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