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Assessment of spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and surface wind speed over the eastern coastal agro-ecological zones of India using advanced trend detection approaches

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Abstract

Rainfall and near-surface wind speed are two crucial parameters affecting climate change-induced extreme events. It is essential to perform a trend analysis of these parameters to assess the spatiotemporal variation of these events. Thus, the current study aimed to investigate seasonal rainfall and near-surface wind speed variability over six eastern coastal agro-ecological zones (AEZs) of India (AEZs 3, 7, 8, 11, 12, and 18) over 101 years (1920–2020). Further, the Mann–Kendall (MK), modified Mann–Kendall (MMK), bootstrapped Mann–Kendall (BMK), innovative trend analysis (ITA), and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) tests were employed in this study to analyse the trends of rainfall and near-surface wind speed. An increasing trend was noticed in the annual rainfall in the southern AEZs and the zones adjacent to the coastline. In the pre-monsoon season, the AEZs 12 and 18 showed an increasing rainfall trend, whereas the remaining AEZs demonstrated a decreasing trend. Except for AEZ 7, all zones experienced a negative rainfall trend in the post-monsoon season. The results revealed that all AEZs had negative near-surface wind speed trends, which could be attributed to climate change. ITA outperformed the rest of the trend analysis techniques in detecting hidden trends. The DFA test revealed that the trend pattern would continue in the future for 56% of the datasets. This study will assist researchers and policymakers in developing a sustainable water resources management plan by considering the trend patterns of meteorological variables across the agro-ecological regions.

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Data availability

Daily gridded rainfall data was obtained from IMD archive: www.cdsp.imdpune.gov.in and gridded wind speed data was obtained from NASA-POWER archive: www.power.larc.nasa.gov.

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  1. ICAR-National Institute of Secondary Agriculture, Namkum, Ranchi, Jharkhand, 834010, India

    Pradosh Kumar Paramaguru

  2. Department of Agricultural Engineering, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, UP, 221005, India

    Kanhu Charan Panda

  3. Department of Soil Conservation, National PG College (Barhalganj), DDU Gorakhpur University, Gorakhpur, UP, 273402, India

    Kanhu Charan Panda

  4. ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, 110012, India

    Truptimayee Suna & Jitendra Rajput

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  1. Pradosh Kumar Paramaguru
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  2. Kanhu Charan Panda
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  3. Truptimayee Suna
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  4. Jitendra Rajput
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Contributions

PKP: conceptualisation, investigation, methodology, software, validation, formal analysis, writing — original draft, visualisation.

KCP: conceptualisation, formal analysis, writing — original draft, visualisation.

TS: editing.

JR: editing.

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Correspondence to Kanhu Charan Panda.

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Paramaguru, P.K., Panda, K.C., Suna, T. et al. Assessment of spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and surface wind speed over the eastern coastal agro-ecological zones of India using advanced trend detection approaches. Theor Appl Climatol 154, 311–335 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04556-4

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