Abstract
Accurate representation of precipitation over time and space is vital for hydro-climatic studies. Appropriate selection of gridded precipitation data (GPD) is important for regions where long-term in situ records are unavailable and gauging stations are sparse. This study was an attempt to identify the best GPD for the data-poor Amu Darya River basin, a major source of freshwater in Central Asia. The performance of seven GPDs and 55 precipitation gauge locations was assessed. A novel algorithm, based on the integration of a compromise programming index (CPI) and a global performance index (GPI) as part of a multi-criteria group decision-making (MCGDM) method, was employed to evaluate the performance of the GPDs. The CPI and GPI were estimated using six statistical indices representing the degree of similarity between in situ and GPD properties. The results indicated a great degree of variability and inconsistency in the performance of the different GPDs. The CPI ranked the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) precipitation as the best product for 20 out of 55 stations analysed, followed by the Princeton University Global Meteorological Forcing (PGF) and Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS). Conversely, GPI ranked the CPC product the best product for 25 of the stations, followed by PGF and CHRIPS. Integration of CPI and GPI ranking through MCGDM revealed that the CPC was the best precipitation product for the Amu River basin. The performance of PGF was also closely aligned with that of CPC.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
All the data are available in the public domain at the links provided in the texts.
References
Ahmad M, Wasiq M (2004). Water resource development in Northern Afghanistan and its implications for Amu Darya Basin: The World Bank
Ahmed K, Shahid S, bin Harun S, Wang X-j (2016) Characterization of seasonal droughts in Balochistan Province, Pakistan. Stoch Env Res Risk A 30(2):747–762
Ahmed K, Shahid S, Ali R, Bin Harun S, Wang X (2017) Evaluation of the performance of gridded precipitation products over Balochistan Province, Pakistan. Desalin Water Treat 79:73–86 In
Ahmed K, Shahid S, Wang X, Nawaz N, Khan N (2019) Evaluation of gridded precipitation datasets over arid regions of Pakistan. Water 11(2):210
Babow S, Meisen P (2012). The Water-Energy Nexus in the Amu Darya River Basin: The Need for Sustainable Solutions to a Regional Problem. Global Energy Network Institute
Bai L, Shi C, Li L, Yang Y, Wu J (2018) Accuracy of CHIRPS satellite-rainfall products over mainland China. Remote Sens 10(3):362
Becker A, Finger P, Meyer-Christoffer A, Rudolf B, Schamm K, Schneider U, Ziese M (2012) A description of the global land-surface precipitation data products of the global precipitation climatology centre with sample applications including centennial (trend) analysis from 1901-present. ESSDD 5(2):921–998
Behar O, Khellaf A, Mohammedi K (2015) Comparison of solar radiation models and their validation under Algerian climate–The case of direct irradiance. Energy Convers Manag 98:236–251
Beven K, Westerberg I (2011) On red herrings and real herrings: disinformation and information in hydrological inference. Hydrol Process 25(10):1676–1680
Bobushev T, Salnikov V (2014) The Impact of Global Climate Change on Environment (In Cause Of Water Use In Central Asia). Reforma 1(61):17–22
Brahim HB, Duckstein L (2011). Descriptive methods and compromise programming for promoting agricultural reuse of treated wastewater. In Computational Methods for Agricultural Research: Advances and Applications (pp. 355-388): IGI Global
Chevallier P, Pouyaud B, Mojaïsky M, Bolgov M, Olsson O, Bauer M, and Froebrich J (2012). Trends for snow cover and river flows in the Pamirs (Central Asia). Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss 9:29–64. https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-9-29-2012
Despotovic M, Nedic V, Despotovic D, Cvetanovic S (2015) Review and statistical analysis of different global solar radiation sunshine models. Renew Sust Energ Rev 52:1869–1880
Dodson J, Betts AV, Amirov S, Yagodin VN (2015) The nature of fluctuating lakes in the southern Amu-dar'ya delta. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 437:63–73
Duan Z, Liu J, Tuo Y, Chiogna G, Disse M (2016) Evaluation of eight high spatial resolution gridded precipitation products in Adige Basin (Italy) at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Sci Total Environ 573:1536–1553
Duethmann D, Bolch T, Farinotti D, Kriegel D, Vorogushyn S, Merz B, Güntner A (2015) Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt-dominated catchments of the T arim R iver, Central A sia. Water Resour Res 51(6):4727–4750
Erazo B, Bourrel L, Frappart F, Chimborazo O, Labat D, Dominguez-Granda L, Mejia R (2018) Validation of satellite estimates (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, TRMM) for rainfall variability over the Pacific slope and Coast of Ecuador. Water 10(2):213
Fan J, Wang X, Wu L, Zhang F, Bai H, Lu X, Xiang Y (2018) New combined models for estimating daily global solar radiation based on sunshine duration in humid regions: A case study in South China. Energy Convers Manag 156:618–625
Froebrich J, Kayumov O (2004). Water management aspects of Amu Darya. In Dying and Dead Seas Climatic Versus Anthropic Causes (pp. 49-76): Springer
Funk C, Peterson P, Landsfeld M, Pedreros D, Verdin J, Shukla S, Hoell A (2015). The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations—a new environmental record for monitoring extremes. Sci Data 2: sdata201566. In
Gampe D, Ludwig R (2017) Evaluation of gridded precipitation data products for hydrological applications in complex topography. Hydrology 4(4):53
Gampe D, Schmid J, Ludwig R (2019) Impact of reference dataset selection on RCM evaluation, bias correction, and resulting climate change signals of precipitation. J Hydrometeorol 20(9):1813–1828
Gao F, Zhang Y, Chen Q, Wang P, Yang H, Yao Y, Cai W (2018) Comparison of two long-term and high-resolution satellite precipitation datasets in Xinjiang, China. Atmos Res 212:150–157
Gaybullaev B, Chen S-C (2013) Water salinity changes of the gauging stations along the Amu Darya River. J Agric For 62(1):1–14
Guo B, Zhang J, Meng X, Xu T, Song Y (2020) Long-term spatio-temporal precipitation variations in China with precipitation surface interpolated by ANUSPLIN. Sci Rep 10(1):1–17
Haag I, Jones PD, Samimi C (2019) Central Asia’s changing climate: How temperature and precipitation have changed across time, space, and altitude. Climate 7(10):123
Ibrahimzada MW, Sharma D (2012) Vulnerability assessment of water resources in Amu Darya river basin, Afghanistan. Int J Environ Sci 3(2):802–812
Immerzeel W, Lutz A, Droogers P (2012) Climate change impacts on the upstream water resources of the Amu and Syr Darya River basins. Wageningen, The Netherlands
Jalilov S-M, Amer SA, Ward FA (2013) Reducing conflict in development and allocation of transboundary rivers. Eurasian Geogr Econ 54(1):78–109
Jamil B, Irshad K, Algahtani A, Islam S, Ali MA, Shahab A (2020) On the calibration and applicability of global solar radiation models based on temperature extremities in India. Environ Prog Sustain Energy 39(1):13236
Jiang S-j, Zhou M, Ren L-l, Cheng X-r, Zhang P-j (2016) Evaluation of latest TMPA and CMORPH satellite precipitation products over Yellow River Basin. Water Science and Engineering 9(2):87–96
Kamiguchi K, Arakawa O, Kitoh A, Yatagai A, Hamada A, Yasutomi N (2010) Development of APHRO_JP, the first Japanese high-resolution daily precipitation product for more than 100 years. Hydrological Research Letters 4:60–64
Khan N, Pour SH, Shahid S, Ismail T, Ahmed K, Chung ES, Wang X (2019) Spatial distribution of secular trends in rainfall indices of Peninsular Malaysia in the presence of long-term persistence. Meteorol Appl 26(4):655–670
Khaydarov M, Gerlitz L (2019) Climate variability and change over Uzbekistan–an analysis based on high resolution CHELSA data. Central Asian Journal of Water Research (CAJWR) Центральноазиатский журнал исследований водных ресурсов 5(2):1–19
Kidd C, Becker A, Huffman GJ, Muller CL, Joe P, Skofronick-Jackson G, Kirschbaum DB (2017) So, how much of the Earth’s surface is covered by rain gauges? Bull Am Meteorol Soc 98(1):69–78
Kure S, Jang S, Ohara N, Kavvas M, Chen Z (2013) Hydrologic impact of regional climate change for the snow-fed and glacier-fed river basins in the Republic of Tajikistan: Statistical downscaling of global climate model projections. Hydrol Process 27(26):4071–4090
Li D, Christakos G, Ding X, Wu J (2018) Adequacy of TRMM satellite rainfall data in driving the SWAT modeling of Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China). J Hydrol 556:1139–1152
Lioubimtseva E (2014). Impact of climate change on the Aral Sea and its basin. In The Aral Sea (pp. 405-427): Springer
Liu X, Yang T, Hsu K, Liu C, Sorooshian S (2017) Evaluating the streamflow simulation capability of PERSIANN-CDR daily rainfall products in two river basins on the Tibetan Plateau. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 21(1):169–181
Lutz AF, Immerzeel WW, Gobiet A, Pellicciotti F, Bierkens MF (2013) Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17(9):3661–3677
Malsy M, aus der Beek T, Flörke M (2015) Evaluation of large-scale precipitation data sets for water resources modelling in Central Asia. Environ Earth Sci 73(2):787–799
Matsuura K, Willmott C.J (2012). Terrestrial precipitation: 1900-2010 gridded monthly time series. WWW document] URL http://climate.geog.udel.edu/~climate/html_pages/Global2011/Precip_revised_3,2
Mergili M, Müller JP, Schneider JF (2013) Spatio-temporal development of high-mountain lakes in the headwaters of the Amu Darya River (Central Asia). Glob Planet Chang 107:13–24
Muhammad MKI, Nashwan MS, Shahid S, Ismail T b, Song YH, Chung E-S (2019) Evaluation of empirical reference evapotranspiration models using compromise programming: a case study of Peninsular Malaysia. Sustainability 11(16):4267
Mukherjee S, Mishra A, Trenberth KE (2018) Climate change and drought: a perspective on drought indices. Current Climate Change Reports 4(2):145–163
Musie M, Sen S, Srivastava P (2019) Comparison and evaluation of gridded precipitation datasets for streamflow simulation in data scarce watersheds of Ethiopia. J Hydrol 579:124168
Nashwan MS, Shahid S (2019) Symmetrical uncertainty and random forest for the evaluation of gridded precipitation and temperature data. Atmos Res 230:104632
Nashwan MS, Shahid S (2020) A novel framework for selecting general circulation models based on the spatial patterns of climate. Int J Climatol 40:4422–4443
Nashwan MS, Shahid S, Wang X (2019a) Assessment of satellite-based precipitation measurement products over the hot desert climate of Egypt. Remote Sens 11(5):555
Nashwan MS, Shahid S, Wang X (2019b) Uncertainty in estimated trends using gridded rainfall data: a case study of Bangladesh. Water 11(2):349
New M, Hulme M, Jones P (2000) Representing twentieth-century space–time climate variability. Part II: Development of 1901–96 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate. J Clim 13(13):2217–2238
Nezlin NP, Kostianoy AG, Lebedev SA (2004) Interannual variations of the discharge of Amu Darya and Syr Darya estimated from global atmospheric precipitation. J Mar Syst 47(1-4):67–75
Normatov PI, Normatov IS (2018). Monitoring of Meteorological, Hydrological Conditions and Water Quality of the Main Tributaries of the Transboundary Amu Darya River. Achievements and Challenges of Integrated River Basin Management, 149
Novikov, V., Simonett, O., Beilstein, M., Bournay, E., Berthiaume, C., Kirby, A., Rajabov, I. (2009). Climate change in Central Asia—a visual synthesis. Swiss Federal Office for the environment (FOEN), Zoı Environment Network.
Punkari M, Droogers P, Immerzeel W, Korhonen N, Lutz A, Venäläinen A (2014). Climate change and sustainable water management in Central Asia
Raju KS, Sonali P, Kumar DN (2017) Ranking of CMIP5-based global climate models for India using compromise programming. Theor Appl Climatol 128(3-4):563–574
Rashid M, Shaofeng J, Zhu W (2019). Analysis of climate variability, trends, and prediction in the most active parts of the Lake Chad basin, Africa. Scientific Reports (Nature Publisher Group), 9(1)
Roca R, Alexander LV, Potter G, Bador M, Jucá R, Contractor S, Cloché S (2019) FROGS: a daily 1∘× 1∘ gridded precipitation database of rain gauge, satellite and reanalysis products. Earth System Science Data 11(3):1017–1035
Salman SA, Shahid S, Ismail T, Ahmed K, Wang X-J (2018) Selection of climate models for projection of spatiotemporal changes in temperature of Iraq with uncertainties. Atmos Res 213:509–522
Salman SA, Shahid S, Ismail T, Al-Abadi AM, Wang X-j, Chung E-S (2019) Selection of gridded precipitation data for Iraq using compromise programming. Measurement 132:87–98
Samal RK, Kansal ML (2015). Sustainable development contribution assessment of renewable energy projects using AHP and compromise programming techniques. Paper presented at the 2015 International Conference on Energy, Power and Environment: Towards Sustainable Growth (ICEPE)
Savoskul O, Shevnina E (2015) Irrigated crop production in the Syr Darya Basin: climate change rehearsal in the 1990s. Climate Change and Agricultural Water Management in Developing Countries 8:176
Schneider U, Becker A, Finger P, Meyer-Christoffer A, Ziese M, Rudolf B (2014) GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle. Theor Appl Climatol 115(1-2):15–40
Shen Y, Xiong A (2016) Validation and comparison of a new gauge-based precipitation analysis over mainland China. Int J Climatol 36(1):252–265
Shibuo Y, Jarsjö J, Destouni G (2007) Hydrological responses to climate change and irrigation in the Aral Sea drainage basin. Geophys Res Lett 34(21)
Sun Q, Miao C, Duan Q, Ashouri H, Sorooshian S, Hsu KL (2018) A review of global precipitation data sets: Data sources, estimation, and intercomparisons. Rev Geophys 56(1):79–107
Tan X, Ma Z, He K, Han X, Ji Q, He Y (2020) Evaluations on gridded precipitation products spanning more than half a century over the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings. J Hydrol 582:124455
Tanarhte M, Hadjinicolaou P, Lelieveld J (2012) Intercomparison of temperature and precipitation data sets based on observations in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. J Geophys Res Atmos 117(D12)
Tapiador F, Navarro A, Levizzani V, García-Ortega E, Huffman G, Kidd C, Petersen W (2017) Global precipitation measurements for validating climate models. Atmos Res 197:1–20
Törnqvist R (2013). Basin-scale change in water availability and water quality under intensified irrigated agriculture. Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University
Try S, Tanaka S, Tanaka K, Sayama T, Oeurng C, Uk S, Han D (2020) Comparison of gridded precipitation datasets for rainfall-runoff and inundation modeling in the Mekong River Basin. PLoS One 15(1):e0226814
Unger-Shayesteh K, Vorogushyn S, Farinotti D, Gafurov A, Duethmann D, Mandychev A, Merz B (2013) What do we know about past changes in the water cycle of Central Asian headwaters? A review. Glob Planet Chang 110:4–25
White CJ, Tanton TW, Rycroft DW (2014) The impact of climate change on the water resources of the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia. Water Resour Manag 28(15):5267–5281
Wu P, Christidis N, Stott P (2013) Anthropogenic impact on Earth’s hydrological cycle. Nat Clim Chang 3(9):807–810
Yadav SS, Hegde V, Habibi AB, Dia M, Verma S (2019). Climate change, agriculture and food security. Food Security and Climate Change; Yadav SS, Redden RJ, Hatfield JL, Ebert AW, Hunter D, Eds
Yang X, Lu Y, Tan ML, Li X, Wang G, He R (2020) Nine-Year Systematic Evaluation of the GPM and TRMM Precipitation Products in the Shuaishui River Basin in East-Central China. Remote Sens 12(6):1042
Yatagai A, Kamiguchi K, Arakawa O, Hamada A, Yasutomi N, Kitoh A (2012) APHRODITE: Constructing a long-term daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(9):1401–1415
Zandler H, Haag I, Samimi C (2019) Evaluation needs and temporal performance differences of gridded precipitation products in peripheral mountain regions. Sci Rep 9(1):1–15
Zeleny M (1973). Compromise Programming, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Edited by JL Cochrane and M. Zeleny. In: University of South Carolina Press, Columbia, South Carolina
Zhang W (2003) A compromise programming method using multibounds formulation and dual approach for multicriteria structural optimization. Int J Numer Methods Eng 58(4):661–678
Acknowledgements
The authors thank the Ministry of Energy and Water of Afghanistan and the National Centers for Environmental Information of NOAA for providing the station observation data of the Amu Darya River basin. The authors are also thankful to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA), Climate Hazard Group (University of California, USA), Climate Prediction Center of NOAA, Deutscher Wetterdienst (Germany), Princeton University (USA), and University of Delaware (USA) for making the gridded precipitation data available through their data portal.
Code availability
The codes used for the processing of data can be provided on request to the corresponding author.
Funding
This study was financially supported by the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) through grant no. Q.J130000.2451.09G07.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All the authors contributed to the conceptualization and design phases of the study. The data were gathered by Obaidullah Salehie and Kamal Ahmed; the programming code was written by Shamsuddin Shahid and Md Asaduzzaman; an initial draft of the paper was prepared by Obaidullah Salehie and S Adarsh; individual revisions and the final version were provided by Tarmizi bin Ismail and Ashraf Dewan.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethics approval
Not Applicable
Consent to participate
Not Applicable
Consent for publication
All the authors consented to publish the paper.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Salehie, O., Ismail, T., Shahid, S. et al. Ranking of gridded precipitation datasets by merging compromise programming and global performance index: a case study of the Amu Darya basin. Theor Appl Climatol 144, 985–999 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03582-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03582-4