Abstract
Objective
Esophageal cancer (EC) poses a persistent threat to the health of non-elderly adults. This study aims to elucidate the temporal trends of EC-related mortality and investigate the impact of various risk factors on such deaths in the age group of 20–59 years, spanning 3 decades.
Methods
Data on EC deaths were acquired from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) study. We employed estimated average percentage change (EAPC) and linear mixed-effects (LME) models to analyze mortality trends and pertinent risk factors for EC.
Results
Between 1990 and 2019, EC mortality showed a downward trend, and the global number of deaths from EC among non-elderly adults surged by 24.37%. During this period, mortality rates saw an increase in only two regions—the Caribbean and Western Sub-Saharan Africa (EAPCs > 0). For male deaths, smoking and alcohol use emerged as the primary risk factors, while high body mass index (BMI) stood out as the main risk factor for female deaths. Furthermore, the LME model identified male sex, advancing age, alcohol use, smoking, and chewing tobacco as factors associated with an additional rise in EC deaths.
Conclusion
EC continues to exert a substantial toll on mortality among young and middle-aged adults globally. Implementing targeted interventions are significant in alleviating the burden of this disease within this population.
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Data availability
The data were obtained through an online query tool from the website of IHME (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/), and no permissions were required to access the data.
Abbreviations
- ASIR:
-
Age-standardized incidence rate;
- ASMR:
-
Age-standardized mortality rate
- BMI:
-
Body-mass index
- CI:
-
Confidence interval
- EAC:
-
Esophageal adenocarcinoma
- EAPC:
-
Estimated average percentage change
- EC:
-
Esophageal cancer
- ESCC:
-
Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma
- GBD:
-
Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study
- LME:
-
Linear mixed effects
- PAF:
-
Population attributable fraction
- RR:
-
Rate ratio
- SDI:
-
Socio-demographic index
- SEV:
-
Summary exposure value
- UI:
-
Uncertainty interval
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All authors highly appreciate all members of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.
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Conception: QML, FL; design of the work: QML, LYZ, TW, ZPZ, XRZ, YJW, RG, YJZ, XTZ, and FL; data analysis: QML, XRZ, YJW, RG, YJZ, and XTZ; statistical analysis: QML, LYZ, TW, and ZPZ; manuscript editing: QML, FL.
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Li, Q., Zhu, L., Wei, T. et al. Secular trends and attributable risk factors of esophageal cancer deaths among non-elderly adults based on Global Burden of Disease Study. J Cancer Res Clin Oncol 149, 16417–16427 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00432-023-05380-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00432-023-05380-z