Abstract
In this study, we investigate the interdecadal variation characteristics of the intensity of South China Sea Summer Monsoon (SCSSM) in the early 1990s using six different reanalysis datasets. Results indicate that the intensity of SCSSM has experienced an interdecadal change around 1993/94, characterized by a dramatic weakening after 1993. Before 1993, a cyclonic circulation anomaly and enhanced convection prevailed in the South China Sea (SCS) area. The anomalous westerly winds enhance the intensity of SCSSM. Sufficient precipitation is seen over the central-southern SCS, the Indochina peninsula and the Philippine Sea areas, which is associated with anomalous westerly winds from the Bay of Bengal across the SCS and the Indochina peninsula to the Philippine Sea areas, and deficient summer precipitation is seen over the southern China, the northern SCS, and the Maritime continental areas. Spatial distribution pattern of monsoon circulation and precipitation after 1993 is the opposite of what they were before. Meanwhile, the evolution cycle of the intensity of SCSSM on the interdecadal scale seems to become shorter from 1994 to the present than that before 1993. Relative contributions of different external forcings to the 1993/94 interdecadal change are evaluated by climate model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. The interdecadal change of the intensity of SCSSM around 1993/94 can be partly reproduced under all-forcing runs, but with model dependence. The Natural-forcing has negative contribution to this interdecadal change in the whole SCS region. The GHG-forcing has positive contribution in the central-southern SCS, the Bay of Bengal, the Indochina peninsula, the Philippine Sea and the Maritime continental areas, and a negative contribution in southern China and the northern SCS areas. Contrary to the GHG-forcing contribution, the anthropogenic aerosol forcing has a positive contribution in southern China and the northern SCS areas, and negative contribution in the central-southern SCS, the Bay of Bengal, the Indochina peninsula, the Philippine Sea and the Maritime continental areas. The contributions of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols to the intensity of SCSSM are different.
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Data availability
The Twentieth Century Reanalysis V2 data (20CRv2) is available at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV2.html. The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) is available at https://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html#download. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is available at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis II is available at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis2.html. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) twentieth century reanalysis (ERA-20C) is available at https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/era20c-daily/levtype=sfc/type=an/. The global European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data is available at https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/interim-full-daily/levtype=sfc/. The precipitation data from Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) is available at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cmap.html. The precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project version 2.3 (GPCPv2.3) is available at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.gpcp.html. All these reanalysis datasets are provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/OAR/ESRL) Physical Science Department (PSD) (https://www.esrl.noaa.gv/psd/). Detailed information of these datasets and references are available at on the website: https://psl.noaa.gov/. The model outputs from the CMIP6 archive is available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/.
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Acknowledgements
This research is jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 42005114), and the Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) (311022006). We are very grateful to the editor and anonymous reviewers for their careful review and valuable comments, which led to substantial improvement of this work.
Funding
This research is jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 42005114), and the Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) (311022006).
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Zheng, Z., Li, Z., Wen, X. et al. A study of reanalysis characteristics and evaluation of interdecadal variation of the intensity of South China Sea Summer Monsoon in the early 1990s. Clim Dyn (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07080-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07080-3