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The weakening relationship between ENSO and the following summer Pacific Japan teleconnection since the late 1990s

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Abstract

The predictability and variability of extratropical climate are largely associated with tropical forcing through various teleconnections. The East Asia–Pacific/Pacific-Japan (EAP/PJ) teleconnection is one of the most important factors affecting the summer climate in East Asia. In this work, we confirm the weakening relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the following summer PJ teleconnection after the late 1990s and diagnose the possible causes. The results show that compared with that of in 1981–1998, ENSO is less conducive to the formation of anomalous anticyclones in the following summer in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) and the northward propagating Rossby wave train from latitudes of NWP in 2000–2017, resulting in a weaker summer PJ teleconnection. Meanwhile, variation of ENSO feature since 2000 with a suppressed variability leads to a weakened response in the tropical Indian Ocean in the spring and summer. The reduced sea surface temperature response in the tropical Indian Ocean suppresses the excitation of eastward-propagating Kelvin waves and declines the capacitor effect of the Indian Ocean, which is unfavorable for generating anomalies in the NWP and motivating strong PJ teleconnection in meridional direction. Thus, the weakening relationship of ENSO-PJ after late 1990s is the result of the weakened ENSO’s impact on the formation of anticyclones in the following summer in NWP and the declined Indian Ocean capacitor effect on motivating meridionals wave train over East Asia and NWP region.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFA0606301), the National Natural Science Foundation of China Project (42130610, 42075057 and 42275050).

Funding

Key Programme, 42130610, Guolin Feng.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Electronic and Information Engineering, Changshu Institute of Technology, Suzhou, China

    Xiaojuan Wang

  2. Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park, MD, 20740, USA

    Zeng-Zhen Hu

  3. College of Physical Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China

    Guolin Feng

  4. Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan, China

    Po Hu & Jintao Ye

  5. Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Research Center CMA, Beijing, China

    Guolin Feng

Authors
  1. Xiaojuan Wang
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  2. Zeng-Zhen Hu
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  3. Po Hu
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  5. Guolin Feng
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Correspondence to Po Hu or Guolin Feng.

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Wang, X., Hu, ZZ., Hu, P. et al. The weakening relationship between ENSO and the following summer Pacific Japan teleconnection since the late 1990s. Clim Dyn 61, 4033–4046 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06783-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06783-x

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