Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

The dominant North Pacific atmospheric circulation patterns and their relations to Pacific SSTs: historical simulations and future projections in the IPCC AR6 models

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The first two leading modes of the North Pacific atmospheric variability, the Aleutian Low (AL) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), in boreal winter and their relations to the North American and Eurasian surface temperature, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Victoria Mode (VM) are explored in 20 coupled climate models which participated in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The historical simulations of these models can well reproduce spatial structures and amplitudes of the winter AL and NPO, as well as their associations with North American and Eurasian surface air temperatures. The close connections of the winter AL with ENSO and PDO, as well as the linkage between the NPO and VM could also be well simulated. However, most of the models lack the capability in simulating the impact of the winter ENSO on the NPO. This deficiency is mainly attributed to westward shifts of the ENSO-related sea surface temperature and precipitation anomalies in the tropics and ENSO-induced atmospheric teleconnections over the North Pacific in the models. Spread in the ENSO’s amplitude also contributes partly to the diversity of the ENSO–NPO relation among the models. Under the SSP2-RCP4.5 forced climate change projection, projected changes in the amplitudes and centers of the AL and NPO exhibit large uncertainties across the 20 models. The close connections of the AL with ENSO and PDO, and the NPO with VM are still robust in the warming climate. Most models project an increase (a decrease) in the AL–PDO (NPO–VM) relationship. However, there exists a large uncertainty in the projected changes of the AL–ENSO relationship, which is partly attributed to the large divergence in the projected changes of the ENSO’s amplitude among the models.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15
Fig. 16
Fig. 17

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alexander MA, Bladé I, Newman M, Lanzante JR, Lau NC, Scott JD (2002) The atmospheric bridge: the influence of ENSO teleconnections on air–sea interaction over the global oceans. J Clim 15:2205–2231

    Google Scholar 

  • Barsugli JJ, Sardeshmukh PD (2002) Global atmospheric sensitivity to tropical SST anomalies throughout the Indo-Pacific basin. J Clim 15(23):3427–3442

    Google Scholar 

  • Bengtsson L, Hodges KI, Roeckner E (2006) Storm tracks and climate change. J Clim 19:3518–3543

    Google Scholar 

  • Bond NA, Overland JE, Spillane M, Stabeno P (2003) Recent shifts in the state of the North Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 30:2183. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gl018597

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen SF, Song LY (2018) Definition sensitivity: impact of winter North Pacific Oscillation on the surface air temperature over Eurasia and North America. Adv Atmos Sci 35:702–712

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen W, Hans FG, Huang RH (2000) The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon and its relation to the summer monsoon. Adv Atmos Sci 17:48–60

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen L, Yu YQ, Sun D (2013a) Cloud and water vapor feedbacks to the El Niño warming: are they still biased in CMIP5 models? J Clim 26:4947–4961

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen W, Feng J, Wu RG (2013b) Roles of ENSO and PDO in the link of the East Asian winter monsoon to the following summer monsoon. J Clim 26:622–635

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen L, Li T, Yu YQ (2015) Causes of strengthening and weakening of ENSO amplitude under global warming in four CMIP5 models. J Clim 28:3250–3274

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen L, Li T, Yu YQ, Behera SK (2017) A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming. Clim Dyn 49:3799–3811

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen Z, Gan B, Wu L, Jia F (2018) Pacific-North American teleconnection and North Pacific Oscillation: historical simulation and future projection in CMIP5 models. Clim Dyn 50:4379–4403

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen SF, Chen W, Wu R, Yu B, Graf HF (2020) Potential impact of preceding Aleutian Low variation on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation during the following winter. J Clim 33:3061–3077

    Google Scholar 

  • Cherchi A, Masina S, Navarra A (2012) Tropical Pacific-North Pacific teleconnection in a coupled GCM: remote and local effects. Int J Climatol 32(11):1640–1653

    Google Scholar 

  • Chhak K, Di Lorenzo E, Schneider N, Cummins P (2009) Forcing of low-frequency ocean variability in the Northeast Pacific. J Clim 22:1255–1276

    Google Scholar 

  • Choi J, Cha Y (2017) Anomalous variation in summer tropical cyclone activity by preceding winter Aleutian low oscillation. Atmos Sci Lett 18:268–275. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.752

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davis RE (1976) Predictability of sea surface temperature and sea level pressure anomalies over the North Pacific ocean. J Phys Oceangr 6(3):249–266

    Google Scholar 

  • Deser C, Phillips AS, Bourdette V, Teng H (2012) Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. Clim Dyn 38:527–546

    Google Scholar 

  • Di Lorenzo E et al (2008) North Pacific Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change. Geophys Res Lett 35:L08607

    Google Scholar 

  • Di Lorenzo E et al (2010) Central Pacific El Niño and decadal climate change in the North Pacific. Nat Geosci 3:762–765

    Google Scholar 

  • Ding RQ, Li JP, Tseng YH, Sun C, Guo Y (2015) The Victoria mode in the North Pacific linking extratropical sea level pressure variations to ENSO. J Geophys Res Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014jd022221

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eyring V, Bony S, Meehl GA, Senior CA, Stevens B, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE (2016) Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci Model Dev 9:1937–1958

    Google Scholar 

  • Furtado JC, Di Lorenzo E, Schneider N, Bond NA (2011) North Pacific decadal variability and climate change in the IPCC AR4 models. J Clim 24:3049–3067

    Google Scholar 

  • Furtado JC, Di Lorenzo E, Anderson BT, Schneider N (2012) Linkages between the North Pacific Oscillation and central tropical Pacific SSTs at low frequencies. Clim Dyn 39(12):2833–2846. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1245-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gan B et al (2017) On the response of the aleutian low to greenhouse warming. J Clim 30:3907–3925

    Google Scholar 

  • Ge Y, Gong G (2009) North American snow depth and climate teleconnection patterns. J Clim 22:217–233

    Google Scholar 

  • Gershunov A, Barnett TP (1998) Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 79:2715–2725. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079,2715:IMOET.2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harding KJ, Snyder PK (2015) The relationship between the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern, the great plains low level jet, and North Central US heavy rainfall events. J Clim 28:6729–6742

    Google Scholar 

  • Horel JD, Wallace JM (1981) Planetary-scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 109:813–829

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoskins BJ, Karoly DJ (1981) The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J Atmos Sci 38(6):1179–1196

    Google Scholar 

  • Huang B et al (2017) Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 5 (ERSSTv5), Upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons. J Clim 30:8179–8205

    Google Scholar 

  • Ji X, Neelin JD, Lee SK, Mechoso CR (2014) Interhemispheric teleconnections from tropical heat sources in intermediate and simple models. J Clim 27(2):684–697

    Google Scholar 

  • Jo HS, Yeh SW, Lee SK (2015) Changes in the relationship in the SST variability between the tropical Pacific and the North Pacific across the 1998/1999 regime shift. Geophys Res Lett 42:7171–7178

    Google Scholar 

  • Joshi MK, Ha KJ (2019) Fidelity of CMIP5-simulated teleconnection between Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Clim Dyn 52:4157–4176

    Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77(3):437–471

    Google Scholar 

  • Kim JW, Yeh SW, Chang EC (2014) Combined effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on the East Asian winter monsoon. Clim Dyn 42:957–971

    Google Scholar 

  • Kucharski F, Joshi MK (2017) Influence of tropical south Atlantic sea surface temperatures on the Indian summer monsoon in CMIP5 models. Q J R Meteorol Soc 143:1351–1363

    Google Scholar 

  • Latif M, Barnett TP (1996) Decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America: dynamics and predictability. J Clim 9:2407–2423

    Google Scholar 

  • Lau NC (1988) Variability of the observed midlatitude storm tracks in relation to low-frequency changes in the circulation pattern. J Atmos Sci 45:2718–2743. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045,2718:VOTOMS.2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leung YT, Cheung HN, Zhou W (2017) Meridional displacement of the East Asian trough and its response to ENSO forcing. Clim Dyn 48:335–352

    Google Scholar 

  • Linkin ME, Nigam S (2008) The north pacific oscillation-west Pacific teleconnection pattern: mature-phase structure and winter impacts. J Clim 21:1979–1997

    Google Scholar 

  • Luo JJ, Behera SK, Masumoto Y, Yamagata T (2011) Impact of global ocean surface warming on seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. J Clim 24:1626–1646

    Google Scholar 

  • Mantua NJ, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis R (1997) A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:1069–1079

    Google Scholar 

  • Matsuura K, Willmott CJ (2009) Terrestrial air temperature: 1900–2008 gridded monthly time series (version 5.01), University of Delaware Dept. of Geography Center. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.UDel_AirT_Precip.html. Accessed 23 July 2019

  • Namias J (1969) Seasonal interactions between the North Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere during the 1960’s. Mon Weather Rev 97:173–192

    Google Scholar 

  • Namias J (1972) Experiments in objectively predicting some atmospheric and oceanic variables for the winter of 1971–1972. J Appl Meteorol 11:1164–1174

    Google Scholar 

  • Overland JE, Pease CH (1982) Cyclone climatology of the Bering Sea and its relation to sea ice extent. Mon Weather Rev 110:5–13

    Google Scholar 

  • Pak G, Park YH, Vivier F, Kwon YO, Chang KI (2014) Regime-dependent nonstationary relationship between the East Asian Winter Monsoon and North Pacific Oscillation. J Clim 27(21):8185–8204

    Google Scholar 

  • Park JY, Yeh SW, Kug JS, Yoon J (2013) Favorable connections between seasonal footprinting mechanism and El Niño. Clim Dyn 40:1169–1181

    Google Scholar 

  • Pierce DW, Barnett TP, Schneider N, Saravanan R, Dommentget D, Latif M (2001) The role of ocean dynamics in producing decadal climate variability in the North Pacific. Clim Dyn 18:51–70

    Google Scholar 

  • Rodionov SN, Overland JE, Bond NA (2005) The Aleutian low and winter climatic conditions of the Bering Sea. Part I: classification. J Clim 18:160–177

    Google Scholar 

  • Rogers JC (1981) The North Pacific oscillation. J Climatol 1:39–57

    Google Scholar 

  • Song LY, Duan WS (2015) Interannual relationship between the winter Aleutian low and rainfall in the following summer in South China. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 8:271–276. https://doi.org/10.3878/AOSL20150021

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Soulard N, Lin H, Yu B (2019) The changing relationship between ENSO and its extratropical response patterns. Sci Rep 9:6507. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-42922-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE (2001) Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. J Geophys Res 106:7183–7192

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(4):485–498

    Google Scholar 

  • Teng H, Washington WM, Meehl GA (2008) Interannual variations and future change of wintertime extratropical cyclone activity over North America in CCSM3. Clim Dyn 30:673–686

    Google Scholar 

  • Terada K, Hanzawa M (1984) Climate of the North Pacific Ocean. In: Van Loon H (ed) World survey of climatology, vol 15. Elsevier, Oxford, pp 431–504

    Google Scholar 

  • Thompson DW, Wallace JM (1998) The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys Res Lett 25(9):1297–1300

    Google Scholar 

  • Thompson DW, Wallace JM (2000) Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: month-to-month variability. J Clim 13(5):1000–1016

    Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Hurrell JW (1994) Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific. Clim Dyn 9:303–319

    Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Branstator GW, Karoly D, Kumar A, Lau NC, Ropelewski C (1998) Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures. J Geophys Res 103(C7):14291–14324. https://doi.org/10.1029/97jc01444

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ulbrich U, Pinto JG, Kupfer H, Leckebusch C, Spangehl T, Reyers M (2008) Changing northern hemisphere storm tracks in an ensemble of IPCC climate change simulations. J Clim 21:1669–1679

    Google Scholar 

  • Vimont DJ, Battisti DS, Hirst AC (2001) Footprinting: a seasonal connection between the tropics and mid-latitudes. Geophys Res Lett 28:3923–3926. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013435

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vimont DJ, Wallace JM, Battisti DS (2003) The seasonal footprinting mechanism in the Pacific: implications for ENSO. J Clim 16:2668–2675. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016,2668:TSFMIT.2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wallace JM, Gutzler DS (1981) Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the northern hemisphere winter. Mon Weather Rev 109:784–812

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Wu R, Fu X (2000) Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J Clim 13:1517–1536

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang X, Chen M, Wang C, Yeh S, Tan W (2019) Evaluation of performance of CMIP5 models in simulating the North Pacific Oscillation and El Niño Modoki. Clim Dyn 52:1383–1394

    Google Scholar 

  • Wettstein JJ, Wallace JM (2010) Observed patterns of month-to month storm track variability and their relationship to the background flow. J Atmos Sci 67:1420–1437

    Google Scholar 

  • Yeh SW, Kang YJ, Noh Y, Miller AJ (2011) The North Pacific climate transitions of the winters of 1976/77 and 1988/89. J Clim 24:1170–1183

    Google Scholar 

  • Yeh SW, Wang X, Wang CZ, Dewitte B (2015) On the relationship between the North Pacific climate variability and the central Pacific El Niño. J Clim 28:663–677

    Google Scholar 

  • Yeh SW, Yi DW, Sung MK, Kim YH (2018) An eastward shift of the North Pacific Oscillation after the mid-1990s and its relationship with ENSO. Geophys Res Lett 45:6654–6660

    Google Scholar 

  • Yoon and Yeh (2010) Influence of the Pacific decadal oscillation on the relationship between El Niño and the northeast Asian summer monsoon. J Clim 23(17):4525–4537

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu JY, Kim ST (2011) Relationships between extratropical sea level pressure variations and the central Pacific and eastern Pacific types of ENSO. J Clim 24:708–720

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu B, Lin H (2019) Modification of the wintertime Pacific-North American pattern related North American climate anomalies by the Asian–Bering–North American teleconnection. Clim Dyn 53(1–2):313–328

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu B, Shabbar A, Zwiers F (2007) The enhanced PNA-like climate response to Pacific interannual and decadal variability. J Clim 20:5285–5300

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhou W, Wang X, Zhou TJ, Li CY, Chan JCL (2007) Interdecadal variability of the relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO. Meteorol Atmos Phys 98:283–293

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhu YL, Wang HJ (2010) The relationship between the Aleutian Low and the Australian summer monsoon at interannual time scales. Adv Atmos Sci 27:177–184. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-009-8144-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank the three anonymous reviewers for their constructive suggestions, which helped to improve the paper. This study is jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2018YFA0605604), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China Grants (41605050, 41530425, and 41775080).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Shangfeng Chen & Wen Chen

  2. Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada

    Bin Yu

  3. School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China

    Renguang Wu

  4. Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

    Linye Song

Authors
  1. Shangfeng Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Bin Yu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Renguang Wu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Wen Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Linye Song
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shangfeng Chen.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Chen, S., Yu, B., Wu, R. et al. The dominant North Pacific atmospheric circulation patterns and their relations to Pacific SSTs: historical simulations and future projections in the IPCC AR6 models. Clim Dyn 56, 701–725 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05501-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05501-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation