Abstract
The dynamics of housing prices in developing countries continue to be understudied. The main reason is the lack of availability of publicly accessible data. Therefore, in this study, we analyze the factors that affect home prices in Guayaquil, Ecuador. We use an innovative strategy to collect information on rental prices and the variables that control their dynamics. We use the two-stage quantile regression approach to consider the heterogeneity of the families and the spatial effects exclusively present in this type of study. The main findings show that the effects (of the independent variables) on rental prices depend on the sub-market and type of residence. For example, the square meters of construction are significant only in the 50 and 75 quantiles, and the effect is more significant in the residence type “house.” The “number of bathrooms” mainly affects houses, not apartments. Urban parks revalue house prices only in the highest quantile. The Salado estuary does not affect apartment prices; however, there is a negative effect on house rentals.
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Notes
OLX is an online marketplace company based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. It was founded in 2006 and operates in 45 countries. OLX is owned by Prosus, the division of the international assets of the South African multinational Naspers.
This first step prevents quantile regression from being applied to other spatial models.
With this type of data structure, certain criteria are discarded, such as contiguity.
To check the robustness of this criterion, we construct an inverse distance function using the binary criterion. We established the cut-off value of the matrix at 2 km. Results are available upon request.
Salado estuary is the main estuary of the city of Guayaquil and one of the most important in Ecuador. From the geomorphological and oceanographic point of view, it is an arm of the sea. The study by Calle et al. (2018) determined that this natural resource is highly contaminated.
The robust approach was used to correct heteroskedasticity problems commonly present in cross-sectional data.
Results are not shown due to lack of space. However, they are available upon request.
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Manuel A. Zambrano-Monserrate declares that he has no conflict of interest. Maria Alejandra Ruano declares that she has no conflict of interest. Carlos A. Silva declares that he has no conflict of interest. Ronald Campoverde declares that he has no conflict of interest. Christian Rosero declares that he has no conflict of interest. Daniel A. Sanchez-Loor declares that he has no conflict of interest.
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Appendix
Appendix
1.1 SLXQR model
Dependent variable: ln (Rental price) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quantile | Model 7 | Model 8 | Model 9 | ||||||
Full sample | House | Apartment in house or building | |||||||
0.25 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.75 | |
ln(Squared meters) | 0.025 (0.032) | 0.623 (0.678) | 0.871*** (0.432) | 0.039 (0.032) | 0.662 (0.692) | 0.902 (0.932) | 0.012 (0.053) | 0.465* (0.076) | 0.791* (0.107) |
Age of residence | − 0.010 (0.030) | − 0.074 (0.070) | − 0.085 (0.081) | − 0.018 (0.024) | − 0.060 (0.069) | − 0.090 (0.094) | − 0.003* (0.001) | − 0.015* (0.042) | − 0.038* (0.016) |
ln(Number of rooms) | 0.451 (0.419) | 0.331 (0.335) | 0.793 (0.073) | 0.753 (0.771) | 0.436 (0.462) | 0.904** (0.062) | 0.394* (0.055) | 0.331* (0.032) | 0.653* (0.031) |
ln(Number of bathrooms) | 0.562 (0.550) | 0.302 (0.440) | 0.787 (0.079) | 0.793 (0.732) | 0.821 (0.838) | 0.921** (0.042) | 0.001 (0.006) | 0.152 (0.231) | 0.283 (0.272) |
Furnished | 0.495* (0.412) | 0.391* (0.038) | 0.578* (0.053) | 0.794* (0.048) | 0.581* (0.042) | 0.802* (0.073) | 0.310 (0.345) | 0.221 (0.206) | 0.482** (0.193) |
ln(Distance to school) | − 0.039 (0.040) | − 0.092 (0.048) | − 0.167 (0.142) | − 0.284 (0.032) | − 0.283* (0.041) | − 0.391* (0.053) | − 0.018 (0.025) | − 0.072 (0.068) | − 0.148* (0.013) |
ln(Distance to parks) | − 0.045 (0.053) | − 0.064 (0.071) | − 0.099* (0.033) | − 0.010 (0.094) | − 0.111 (0.191) | − 0.206*** (0.091) | − 0.024 (0.037) | − 0.050 (0.082) | − 0.073 (0.082) |
ln(Distance to estuary) | 0.085 (0.082) | 0.102 (0.043) | 0.148 (0.023) | 0.173 (0.059) | 0.202 (0.034) | 0.341* (0.043) | 0.052 (0.637) | 0.070 (0.063) | 0.098*** (0.061) |
Residence type | − 0.383* (0.072) | − 0.550* (0.071) | − 0.795* (0.551) | – | – | – | – | – | – |
W*ln(Squared meters) | 0.020 (0.031) | 0.627 (0.678) | 0.871*** (0.432) | 0.036 (0.031) | 0.666 (0.691) | 0.903 (0.931) | 0.013 (0.054) | 0.465 (0.469) | 0.792* (0.108) |
W*Age of residence | − 0.009 (0.030) | − 0.076 (0.071) | − 0.085 (0.081) | − 0.019 (0.025) | − 0.061 (0.069) | − 0.091 (0.095) | − 0.003 (0.003) | − 0.015 (0.012) | − 0.039* (0.016) |
W*ln(Number of rooms) | 0.450 (0.412) | 0.335 (0.333) | 0.793 (0.073) | 0.755 (0.772) | 0.437 (0.463) | 0.906 (0.963) | 0.395 (0.356) | 0.332 (0.334) | 0.654* (0.031) |
W*ln(Number of bathrooms) | 0.561 (0.573) | 0.308 (0.446) | 0.787 (0.079) | 0.797 (0.731) | 0.822 (0.839) | 0.922** (0.044) | 0.001 (0.006) | 0.153 (0.232) | 0.2834 (0.272) |
W*Furnished | 0.499 (0.415) | 0.391 (0.338) | 0.578* (0.053) | 0.797* (0.049) | 0.582* (0.041) | 0.803* (0.074) | 0.311 (0.346) | 0.222 (0.207) | 0.483** (0.193) |
W*ln(Distance to School) | − 0.040 (0.041) | − 0.094 (0.049) | − 0.167 (0.142) | − 0.285 (0.031) | − 0.284* (0.040) | − 0.392* (0.055) | − 0.019 (0.026) | − 0.073 (0.069) | − 0.148* (0.013) |
W*ln(Distance to parks) | − 0.046 (0.056) | − 0.062 (0.074) | − 0.099* (0.033) | − 0.011 (0.096) | − 0.112 (0.192) | − 0.208 (0.291) | − 0.025 (0.038) | − 0.051 (0.083) | − 0.073 (0.082) |
W*ln(Distance to estuary) | 0.088 (0.081) | 0.105 (0.045) | 0.148 (0.023) | 0.172 (0.060) | 0.203 (0.035) | 0.344* (0.044) | 0.053 (0.638) | 0.071 (0.064) | 0.098 (0.099) |
W*Residence type | − 0.386*** (0.276) | − 0.557*** (0.275) | − 0.799*** (0.554) | ||||||
Constant | 5.723* | 4.524* | 5.629* | 5.421* | 6.571* | 7.532* | 6.436* | 6.327* | 4.561* |
\(\lambda \) | 0.382 (0.364) | 0.449 (0.572) | 0.573*** (0.481) | 0.401 (0.450) | 0.491 (0.490) | 0.693*** (0.400) | 0.318 (0.357) | 0.405 (0.473) | 0.522 (0.588) |
Pseudo R2 | 0.348 | 0.447 | 0.441 | 0.447 | 0.563 | 0.547 | 0.367 | 0.474 | 0.437 |
N | 467 | 127 | 302 | ||||||
In the parentheses are standard errors obtained through 500 bootstrap replications.
*p < 0.01; **p < 0.05; ***p < 0.1.
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Zambrano-Monserrate, M.A., Ruano, M.A., Silva, C.A. et al. Dynamism of the housing rental market in Guayaquil, Ecuador: an empirical analysis. Empir Econ 64, 747–764 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-022-02271-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-022-02271-z