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Predicting future climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the black howler monkey (Alouatta pigra): an endangered arboreal primate

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Abstract

Climate change is one of the main factors affecting biodiversity worldwide at an alarming rate. In addition to increases in global extreme weather events, melting of polar ice caps, and subsequent sea level rise, climate change might shift the geographic distribution of species. In recent years, interest in understanding the effects of climate change on species distribution has increased, including species which depend greatly on forest cover for survival, such as strictly arboreal primates. Here, we generate a series of species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate future projections under different climate change scenarios on the distribution of the black howler monkey (Alouatta pigra), an endemic endangered primate species. Using SDMs, we assessed current and future projections of their potential distribution for three Social Economic Paths (SSPs) for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090. Specifically, we found that precipitation seasonality (BIO15, 30.8%), isothermality (BIO3, 25.4%), and mean diurnal range (BIO2, 19.7.%) are the main factors affecting A. pigra distribution. The future climate change models suggested a decrease in the potential distribution of A. pigra by projected scenarios (from − 1.23 to − 12.66%). The highly suitable area was the most affected above all in the more pessimist scenario most likely related to habitat fragmentation. Our study provides new insights into the potential future distribution and suitable habitats of Alouatta pigra. Such information could be used by local communities, governments, and non-governmental organizations for conservation planning of this primate species.

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Fig. 1
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© ESA WorldCover project 2020/contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2020) processed by ESA WorldCover consortium (Zanaga et al., 2021). B Calibration area used to model current potential distribution area. Models were calibrated based on the distribution of black howler monkeys populations. C Area used to project models to the future. The mask of the species is based on the ecoregions proposed by Olson et al. (2001)

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Data availability

The datasets are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Arturo Barbachano Guerrero for the image of Alouatta pigra used in the Fig. 1 A, Saddan Morales Saldaña and Luis Manuel García Feria for their helpful comments.

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  1. Red de Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología, A.C. (INECOL), Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico

    Antonio Acini Vásquez-Aguilar

  2. Instituto de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico

    Dolores Hernández-Rodríguez

  3. Centro de Investigaciones Tropicales (CITRO), Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico

    Rodolfo Martínez-Mota

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Antonio Acini Vásquez-Aguilar: conceptualization, writing—original draft preparation; methodology and formal analysis; Antonio Acini Vásquez-Aguilar and Dolores Hernández-Rodríguez: validation and visualization. All authors: supervision, writing—reviewing and editing; all authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Vásquez-Aguilar, A.A., Hernández-Rodríguez, D. & Martínez-Mota, R. Predicting future climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the black howler monkey (Alouatta pigra): an endangered arboreal primate. Environ Monit Assess 196, 392 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-12543-z

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