Forecasting the Caspian Sea Level

Abstract

Forecasting is a trustworthy judgement of the state of an object (process or phenomenon) in the future based on an analysis of a logical sequence of events (Bestuzhev-Lada, 1982). In this chapter, we will consider how the available empirical data may be organized into such a “logical sequence” which is appropriate for CSL predictions. Section 4.1 describes major hypotheses that explain fluctuations in the CSL. A review of currently existing climatological methods for forecasting the CSL and their comparative analysis are given in section 4.2. Section 4.3 discusses why the forecasting regression models linking the CSL and such traditionally used predictors as sunspot numbers, air temperature in Moscow and Belinsky’s index of atmospheric circulation after some period of successful application eventually fail. A simple but effective statistical technique is used to detect the moments when the correlation links are broken. A new method for forecasting the CSL changes, which is based on probabilistic logic and takes into account a complex of climatic factors, is presented in section 4.3. The practical application of the method is discussed in section 4.4.