Abstract
A novel corona virus is the cause of the viral infection recognized as COVID-19 (initially named as SARC-CoV-2). Since the pandemic emerged in the Wuhan province of China in November 2019, it has been recognized as a global threat. However, over the next two years, it has been witnessed that the novel corona virus tends to evolve rapidly. In this paper, we leverage our time-series data collected since the initial spread of COVID-19, mainly in India, to better understand the growth of this pandemic in different regions throughout the country. The research is based on cases reported in India in chronological order. In addition to numerous previous works, we have tried to come up with the most appropriate solution to estimate and predict the newly reported COVID-19 cases in the upcoming days, with the least possible error through machine learning. This study also aims to compare multiple machine learning algorithms on various factors and their trade-off for prediction. The experimental results indicate that Orthogonal Matching Pursuit is the best algorithm for this problem. We make our dataset available for further research.
The link to access the final code and dataset used for essential data preparation and testing of the model is: https://github.com/apoorva46/COVID-19-Project-2023.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ministry of Health and Family Welfare website (1947)
Indian Council of Medical Research website (1949)
CSSE - Johns Hopkins University website (2019)
Amar, L.A., Taha, A.A., Mohamed, M.Y.: Prediction of the final size for COVID-19 epidemic using machine learning: a case study of Egypt. Infect. Dis. Model. 5, 622–634 (2020)
Benıtez-Pena, S., Carrizosa, E., Guerrero, V., Dolores, M.: Short-term predictions of the evolution of COVID-19 in Andalusia. An ensemble method. Preprint (2020)
Burdick, H., et al.: Prediction of respiratory decompensation in COVID-19 patients using machine learning: the ready trial. Comput. Biol. Med. 124, 103949 (2020)
Chai, T., Draxler, R.R.: Root mean square error (RMSE) or mean absolute error (MAE). Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. 7(1), 1525–1534 (2014)
Chakraborty, T., Ghosh, I.: Real-time forecasts and risk assessment of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases: a data-driven analysis. Chaos Solitons Fractals 135, 109850 (2020)
Darapaneni, N., et al.: A machine learning approach to predicting COVID-19 cases amongst suspected cases and their category of admission. In: 2020 IEEE 15th International Conference on Industrial and Information Systems (ICIIS), pp. 375–380. IEEE (2020)
Devarajan, J.P., Manimuthu, A., Sreedharan, V.R.: Healthcare operations and black swan event for COVID-19 pandemic: a predictive analytics. IEEE Trans. Eng. Manag. 1–15 (2021)
Goswami, K., Bharali, S., Hazarika, J.: Projections for COVID-19 pandemic in India and effect of temperature and humidity. Diabetes Metab. Syndr. Clin. Res. Rev. 14(5), 801–805 (2020)
Gupta, V.K., Gupta, A., Kumar, D., Sardana, A.: Prediction of COVID-19 confirmed, death, and cured cases in India using random forest model. Big Data Mining Anal. 4(2), 116–123 (2021)
Kanagarathinam, K., Sekar, K.: Estimation of the reproduction number and early prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in India using a statistical computing approach. Epidemiol. Health 42, 1–5 (2020)
Khanday, A.M.U.D., Rabani, S.T., Khan, Q.R., Rouf, N., Mohi Ud Din, M.: Machine learning based approaches for detecting COVID-19 using clinical text data. Int. J. Inf. Technol. 12, 731–739 (2020)
Kumari, R., et al.: Analysis and predictions of spread, recovery, and death caused by COVID-19 in India. Big Data Mining Anal. 4(2), 65–75 (2021)
Mary, L.W., Raj, S.A.A.: Machine learning algorithms for predicting SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) - a comparative analysis. In: 2021 2nd International Conference on Smart Electronics and Communication (ICOSEC), pp. 1607–1611 (2021)
Nabi, K.N.: Forecasting COVID-19 pandemic: a data-driven analysis. Chaos Solitons Fractals 139, 110046 (2020)
Pati, Y.C., Rezaiifar, R., Krishnaprasad, P.S.: Orthogonal matching pursuit: recursive function approximation with applications to wavelet decomposition. In: Proceedings of 27th Asilomar Conference on Signals, Systems and Computers, pp. 40–44. IEEE (1993)
Rustam, F., et al.: COVID-19 future forecasting using supervised machine learning models. IEEE Access 8, 101489–101499 (2020)
Schneider, P., Xhafa, F.: Anomaly Detection and Complex Event Processing Over IoT Data Streams: With Application to EHealth and Patient Data Monitoring. Academic Press (2022)
Sujath, R., Chatterjee, J.M., Hassanien, A.E.: A machine learning forecasting model for COVID-19 pandemic in India. Stoch. Env. Res. Risk Assess. 34, 959–972 (2020)
Tiwari, S., Chanak, P., Singh, S.K.: A review of the machine learning algorithms for COVID-19 case analysis. IEEE Trans. Artif. Intell. 4(1), 44–59 (2023)
Vashisht, G., Prakash, R.: Predicting the rate of growth of the novel corona virus 2020. Int. J. Emerg. Technol. 11(3), 19–25 (2020)
Wang, P., Zheng, X., Li, J., Zhu, B.: Prediction of epidemic trends in COVID-19 with logistic model and machine learning technics. Chaos Solitons Fractals 139, 110058 (2020)
Yadav, M., Perumal, M., Srinivas, M.: Analysis on novel coronavirus (COVID-19) using machine learning methods. Chaos Solitons Fractals 139, 110050 (2020)
Zhong, L., Mu, L., Li, J., Wang, J., Yin, Z., Liu, D.: Early prediction of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in the mainland china based on simple mathematical model. IEEE Access 8, 51761–51769 (2020)
Acknowledgment
We would like to express our gratitude to Dr. Jagriti Saini, Siddheshwari Dutt Mishra, and Mohammad Ahsan Siddiqui from the Department of Computer Science & Engineering, NITTTR, Chandigarh as well as Deepak Jaglan from Central University of Haryana, for their technical support at various stages of this research work.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Appendix
Appendix
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2024 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Sharma, A., Dutta, M., Prakash, R. (2024). Comparative Performance Analysis of Machine Learning Algorithms for COVID-19 Cases in India. In: Challa, R.K., et al. Artificial Intelligence of Things. ICAIoT 2023. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 1929. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-48774-3_17
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-48774-3_17
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-031-48773-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-031-48774-3
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)