Abstract
This chapter applies the baseline satellite record of maritime ship traffic in the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) High Seas from 1 September 2009 through 31 December 2018 as a case study with informed decisionmaking to operate across a ‘continuum of urgencies’. Starting with questions to generate data as stages of research, the geospatial analyses herein involve cloud-based innovations with the space-time cube and binned queries to interpret the dynamics of maritime ship traffic based on the vessel flag states, types and sizes within the CAO High Seas and surrounding Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ). These ‘big data’ are being transformed into evidence for decisions in view of the institutions that produce governance mechanisms and built infrastructure. With science diplomacy, the next level of action is to introduce options (without advocacy), which can be used or ignored explicitly, contributing to informed decisionmaking by the institutions short-to-long term. Objective integration with satellite sea-ice records further reveals ship-ice dynamics in the CAO High Seas – where the highest number and diversity of ships are entering from the Pacific Ocean side – introducing urgent questions to generate informed decisions across the Bering Strait Region south to the Aleutian Islands and northward. The holistic (international, interdisciplinary and inclusive) analyses herein of Arctic Ocean satellite records complement the intent of the “precautionary approach” embodied in international law, as provided by the 2018 Agreement to Prevent Unregulated High Seas Fisheries in the Central Arctic Ocean that entered into force on 25 June 2021 with ten Arctic and non-Arctic States. In the CAO High Seas, as an area beyond national jurisdictions, maritime ship traffic is highlighted with global inclusion under the Law of the Sea, where all Arctic states and Indigenous peoples “remain committed” as they shared in their 2013 Vision of the Arctic. These next-generation Arctic marine shipping assessments reflect socioeconomic drivers of change in the Arctic Ocean, as revealed by the ecology of maritime ship traffic in all EEZ and High Seas areas north of the Arctic Circle, with global lessons from the CAO High Seas about balancing national interests and common interests.
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Acknowledgements
This article is a product of the Science Diplomacy Center, coordinated through EvREsearch LTD (previously through The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University), with support from the United States National Science Foundation (Award Nos. NSF-OPP 1263819, NSF-ICER 1660449, NSF-OPP 1917434 and NSF-ICER 2103490). We gratefully acknowledge the thoughtful reviews by Lawson W. Brigham and by Jon-Arve Røyset, who provided independent data cross-checking with the Arctic Ship Traffic Database (ASTD) coordinated by the Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME) Working Group of the Arctic Council.
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Berkman, P.A., Fiske, G., Grebmeier, J.M., Vylegzhanin, A.N. (2022). (Research): Maritime Ship Traffic in the Central Arctic Ocean High Seas as a Case Study with Informed Decisionmaking. In: Berkman, P.A., Vylegzhanin, A.N., Young, O.R., Balton, D.A., Øvretveit, O.R. (eds) Building Common Interests in the Arctic Ocean with Global Inclusion. Informed Decisionmaking for Sustainability. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-89312-5_24
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