Abstract
Hai Phong, a coastal city in the Vietnam Red River Delta, is considered to be one of the ten cities most threatened by climate change in the world. This paper presents the impacts of climate change - related to hazards and adaptive capacity of local communities of the An Duong district, Hai Phong city. The study deals with applying the Delphi technique combined with the PSR (Pressure-State-Response) framework. The research established a catalog of 18 questions and 18 statements, indicating the PSR constituents. Delphi questionnaires allow the agreement to be identified among a stakeholder group’s respondents. 40 panel members engaged in a two-round Delphi process. The results indicate that the establishment of advanced agricultural production models, the intensification of training courses on farming techniques and response to climate change, and the economical use of energy should be the main responses in An Duong. The value of Kendall’s W in the second round is 0.738, gaining “very strong agreement” and “very high confidence” from the panel members. The contribution of Delphi results achieves a significant impact on local socio-economic development, namely in ecosystem-based management, sustainability, and climate change-resilient goals.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Adler, M., & Ziglio, E. (1996). Gazing into the Oracle: The Delphi method and its application to social policy and public health. Jessica Kingsley Publishers.
An Duong Department of Agriculture and Rural Development [ADDA]. (2016). Announcement on enhancing the direction of agricultural production and aquaculture in the spring in 2016. Hai Phong.
An Duong Department of Agriculture and Rural Development [ADDA]. (2018). Situation and results of agricultural production in 2011–2015: Directions, tasks for 2012–2018. Hai Phong.
An Duong People’s Committee [ADC]. (2015). Report of the business years 2010–2015. Hai Phong.
An Duong People’s Committee [ADC]. (2018). Report on the implementation of socio-economic, defense-security tasks in 2018, targets, tasks and solutions in 2019 in an Duong province. Hai Phong.
Biloslavo, R., & Dolinšek, S. (2010). Scenario planning for climate strategies development by integrating group Delphi, AHP and dynamic fuzzy cognitive maps. Foresight, 12(2), 38–48.
Biloslavo, R., & Grebenc, A. (2012). Integrating group Delphi, analytic hierarchy process and dynamic fuzzy cognitive maps for a climate warning scenario. Kybernetes, 41(3/4), 414–428.
Colagiuri, R., Boylan, S., & Morrice, E. (2015). Research priorities for NCD prevention and climate change: An international Delphi survey. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 12(10), 12941–12957.
Cruz, R.V., Harasawa, H., Lal, M., Wu, S., Anokhin, Y., Punsalmaa, B., et al. (2007). Asia: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. In: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Parry M.L. et al., eds. : Cambridge University Press; 469–506.
Dalkey, N., & Helmer, O. (1963). An experimental application of the Delphi method to the use of experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458–467.
Donohoe, H. M., & Needham, R. D. (2009). Moving best practice forward: Delphi characteristics, advantages, potential problems, and solutions. International Journal of Tourism Research, 11(5), 415–437.
Doria, M. F., Boyd, E., Tompkins, E. L., & Adger, W. N. (2009). Using expert elicitation to define successful adaptation to climate change. Environmental Science and Policy, 12(7), 810–819.
EEA. (1995). Europe's environment: The Dobris assessment (8 p). European Environmental Agency.
Eriksen, S., Aldunce, P., Bahinipati, C. S., Martins, R., Molefe, J. I., Nhemachena, C., O'Brien, K., Olorunfemi, F., Park, J., Sygna, L., & Ulsrud, K. (2011). When not every response to climate change is a good one: Identifying principles for sustainable adaptation. Climate and Development, 3(1), 7–20.
Hai Phong Government [HPG]. (2015). Green growth promotion plans of Hai Phong city. Hai Phong.
Hai Phong People’s Committee [HPC]. (2018). Report on the implementation of socio-economic, defense-security tasks in 2018: Targets, tasks and solutions in 2019 in Hai Phong City. Hai Phong.
Hai Phong Statistical Office [HSO]. (2014). Hai Phong statistical yearbook 2014. Hai Phong, 7–169.
Hai Phong Statistical Office [HSO]. (2018). Economic and social situation report in 2016. Hai Phong.
Haiphong’s Department of Natural Resources and Environment [HPE]. (2012). Report on the action plan to respond to climate change and sea level rise of Hai Phong city to 2015. Hai Phong.
Hasson, F., Keeney, S., & McKenna, H. (2000). Research guidelines for the Delphi survey technique. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 32(4), 1008–1015.
Hugé, J., Le, T. H., Pham, H. H., Kuilman, J., & Hens, L. (2010). Sustainability indicators for clean development mechanism projects in Vietnam. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 12(4), 561–571.
Linstone, H. A. (1975). Eight basic pitfalls: A checklist. In H. Linstone & M. Turoff (Eds.), The Delphi method: Techniques and applications. Addison-Wesley.
Lock, A. (1987). Integrating group judgments in subjective forecasts. In G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.), Judgmental forecasting. Wiley.
Martin, T. G., Burgman, M. A., Fidler, F., Kuhnert, P. M., Low-Choy, S., McBride, M., & Mengersen, K. (2012). Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science. Conservation Biology, 26(1), 29–38.
McBride, M. F., Garnett, S. T., Szabo, J. K., Burbidge, A. H., Butchart, S. H. M., Christidis, L., et al. (2012). Structured elicitation of expert judgments for threatened species assessment: A case study on a continental scale using email. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 3(5), 906–920.
MONRE (2010). Water environment. In Vietnam environmental report 2010: Overview of Vietnam environment.
MONRE. (2012). Climate change, sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam (96 p). NARENCA Publishing.
MONRE. (2016). Climate change, sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam (188 p). NARENCA Publishing.
Newton, A., & Weichselgartner, J. (2014). Hotspots of coastal vulnerability: A DPSIR analysis to find societal pathways and responses. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 140, 123–133.
Nguyen, A. T., Vu, A. D., Dang, T. H. G., Hoang, A. H., & Hens, L. (2017). How do local communities adapt to climate changes along heavily damaged coasts? A stakeholder Delphi study in Ky Anh (Central Vietnam). Environment, Development and Sustainability, 20(2), 749–767.
Paliwoda, S. J. (1983). Predicting the future using Delphi. Management Decision, 21(1), 31–38.
Parenté, F. J., & Anderson-Parenté, J. K. (1987). Delphi inquiry systems. In G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.), Judgmental forecasting. Wiley.
Rowe, G., & Wright, G. (1999). The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: Issues and analysis. Forecast, 15(4), 353–375.
Schmidt, R. C. (1997). Managing Delphi surveys using nonparametric statistical techniques. Decision Sciences, 28(3), 763–774.
Sinha, I. P., Smyth, R. L., & Williamson, P. R. (2011). Using the Delphi technique to determine which outcomes to measure in clinical trials: Recommendations for the future based on a systematic review of existing studies. PLoS Medicine, 8(1), 1000–1393.
Stewart, T. R. (1987). The Delphi technique and judgmental forecasting. Climatic Change, 11(1–2), 97–113.
Thayer, C. A. (2007). Climate change and regional security: Vietnam in 2030, workshop on climate change and regional security. U.S. Naval Postgraduate School.
United Nations [UN] (2009). Vietnam and climate change: A discussion paper on policies for sustainable human development. Ha Noi, 47 p.
Vietnam Government [VG]. (2001). Decision approving the adjustment of general planning of construction of Hai Phong city to 2020. Hai Phong.
Vietnam Government [VG] (2018). Decision approving the adjustment and supplement of master plan for socio-economic development of Hai Phong city up to 2025, orientation to 2030. Vietnam. No 821/QĐ-TTg.
Yang, J. S., & Kim, I. H. (2013). Development of drought vulnerability index using Delphi method considering climate change and trend analysis in Nakdong River basin. The Korean Society of Civil Engineers, 33(6), 2245–2254.
Yoon, S. T., Lee, Y. H., Hong, S. H., Kim, M. H., Kang, K. K., Na, Y. E., & Oh, Y. J. (2013). Vulnerability assessment of cultivation facility by abnormal weather of climate change. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 15(4), 264–272.
Acknowledgments
The author would like to thank the households, and the district and commune authorities, as well as the local people, for their assistance and cooperation in completing the questionnaires and providing a discussion of the survey findings.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Pham, H.T.T. (2022). A Stakeholder Delphi Study on the Adaptive Capacity of Local Communities to Climate Change in the Coastal Area: Case Study in An Duong District (Hai Phong, Vietnam). In: Nguyen, A.T., Hens, L. (eds) Global Changes and Sustainable Development in Asian Emerging Market Economies Vol. 2. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-81443-4_49
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-81443-4_49
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-81442-7
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-81443-4
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)