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Scalable Reliability Analysis by Lazy Verification

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NASA Formal Methods (NFM 2021)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNPSE,volume 12673))

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Abstract

This paper presents an iterative method to analyse system reliability models. The key idea is to analyse a partial state space of a reliability model in a conservative and an optimistic manner. By considering unexplored states as being always operational or, dually, already failed, our analysis yields sound upper- and lower-bounds on the system’s reliability. This approach is applied in an iterative manner until the desired precision is obtained. We present details of our approach for Boolean-logic driven Markov processes (BDMPs), an expressive fault tree variant intensively used in analysing energy systems. Based on a prototypical implementation on top of the probabilistic model checker Storm, we experimentally compare our technique to two alternative BDMP analysis techniques: discrete-event simulation obtaining statistical bounds, and a recent closed-form technique for obtaining pessimistic system lifetimes. Our experiments show that mostly only a fragment of the state space needs to be investigated enabling the reliability analysis of models that could not be handled before.

S. Khan—supported by a HEC-DAAD scholarship.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Known as confidence intervals.

  2. 2.

    https://www.lr.org/en/riskspectrum/support-and-downloads/#accordion-rsat3.4.5released(riskspectrumpsa1.4.0/rsat3.4.5)(15june2020) .

  3. 3.

    A cut set of an SFT is a set of basic events that cause the top event to fail.

  4. 4.

    https://github.com/rakhimov/scram.

  5. 5.

    https://www.edf.fr/en/the-edf-group/who-we-are/activities/research-and-development/design-codes/design-code-kb3.

  6. 6.

    https://sourceforge.net/projects/visualfigaro/files/Doc_and_examples/.

  7. 7.

    https://dftbenchmarks.utwente.nl/.

  8. 8.

    https://www.lr.org/en/riskspectrum/.

  9. 9.

    https://github.com/moves-rwth/dft-bdmp.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany

    Shahid Khan, Joost-Pieter Katoen & Matthias Volk

  2. Électricité de France, Palaiseau, France

    Marc Bouissou

Authors
  1. Shahid Khan
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  2. Joost-Pieter Katoen
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  3. Matthias Volk
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  4. Marc Bouissou
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shahid Khan .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA

    Aaron Dutle

  2. National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA, USA

    Mariano M. Moscato

  3. National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA, USA

    Laura Titolo

  4. NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA

    César A. Muñoz

  5. National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA, USA

    Ivan Perez

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Khan, S., Katoen, JP., Volk, M., Bouissou, M. (2021). Scalable Reliability Analysis by Lazy Verification. In: Dutle, A., Moscato, M.M., Titolo, L., Muñoz, C.A., Perez, I. (eds) NASA Formal Methods. NFM 2021. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 12673. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-76384-8_12

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-76384-8_12

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