A Global Sustainability Treaty

Abstract

This chapter was written with extensive contributions from Ram Jakhu and Karin Vazhapully.

Humans are burning about 40 gigatons of fossil fuels per year. Scientists have calculated that we can burn about 500 gigatons of fossil fuels before we push the average temperature above 2 degrees Celsius higher…this is as high as we can push it, they calculate, before really dangerous effects will follow for most of Earth’s bioregions...

–Kim Stanley Robinson, The Ministry for the Future

Draft of a Preliminary International Agreement on Global Sustainability

Preamble – Rationale

Whereas there is heightened global awareness of the rising dangers to the world’s environment being caused by climate change, the hazards to natural life and vegetation worldwide have grown in recent years, with an alarming increase in the average temperature of the world’s atmosphere and adverse other climatic changes related to access to potable water.

Whereas the emergence and spread of a series of coronal viruses have threatened humanity with exponential progression of pandemics in the past decades.

Whereas pollution has become a subject of increasing global concern owing to overexploitation and indiscriminate use of Earth’s nonrenewable resources and spur in industrialization across the globe.

Whereas the world continues to see the development and testing of new types of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear and biochemical weapons, and their delivery systems, despite various attempts to prevent the proliferation and use of such weapons through various treaties, conventions, and transparency and confidence-building measures.

Whereas there have been continued rapid growth of world population, urbanization, income inequality, and large-scale settlements that create more significant target areas for major devastation of megacities by potentially hazardous asteroids, bolides, comets, and centaurs. Likewise, these human settlement areas are also now much more vulnerable to solar storms due to radiation flares and especially coronal mass ejections that could destroy electrical grids, communications and information networks, essential pipelines, satellite networks, and critical control systems such as SCADA and IoT devices.

Whereas there is now an unparalleled increase in the global population, making increasingly large and challenging demands on global resources. Megacities are anticipated to grow in number from 28 in 2014 to 45 by 2030, and cities of 5–10 million are expected to rise over this same period from 43 to 63. They thus will make a global urban population perilously dependent on supply chains that can be disrupted by pandemics, cosmic disasters, natural disasters, and other catastrophes.

Whereas nuclear waste continues to increase at an alarming rate and is threatening the health and longevity of many people and industrial activities, and demand for electrical power continues, as economic systems that are disposable rather than circular and sustainable continue to feed global pollution.

Whereas the natural and manmade disasters that include fire, earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, typhoons, tropical storms, and tornadoes, ocean thermal temperature rises, volcanoes, drought, loss of lakes and aquifers, locust and other insect infestations, red tides, oil spills, deforestation, desertification, and changes to the magnetosphere are becoming more severe due to population growth, income inequality, expansion of the human settlements, pollution of the oceans, and loss of agricultural lands.

Whereas technological advancement, development of automatic weapons, artificial intelligence, and information networks have made global society more vulnerable to cyberattacks.

Whereas all of the potentially existential threats to human civilization and the longer-term sustainability of life on Earth, as noted above, seem to have many interrelated drivers and constitute interdisciplinary areas of scientific, medical, space sciences, economic, political, legal and cultural knowledge, it appears prudent to form an ongoing global sustainability initiative based on a unified and interdisciplinary planning, implementation, and execution process.

The Signatories to this Agreement have agreed as follows:

I. Objective

The objective of this Agreement is to determine and enhance global collaborative efforts to ensure long-term sustainability of human and natural life on Earth.

II. Utilization of Existing Global Resources

The Signatories to this Agreement recognize that integrated, comprehensive, and interdisciplinary planning, implementation, and execution are necessary to mitigate or prevent the risks posed to humanity by global existential threats. They further realize that establishing a new international organization to address these existential concerns could be counterproductive, might limit innovative thoughts and actions, and would create competition among existing agencies, scientific bodies, non-governmental organizations, and business enterprises that might be best able to address these issues if they collaborate.

III. The U.N. General Assembly and Its Sustainable Development Goals

The starting point for addressing those existential risks identified in the Preamble is to review the United Nations Seventeen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Global Sustainability Initiative participants would review the quantitative measures that record the current rate of progress being made against these various goals. Further, a new goal would be added to the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals. This eighteenth SDG would seek to measure specific progress that might be made to reduce the level of risk to humanity in each area enumerated in the Preamble, and other new risk areas identified by the Global Sustainability Initiative Panel participants. These would be cross-indexed against the progress made in each of the seventeen goal areas. This would allow an annual determination as to where progress in these areas best correlates with the current seventeen goals.

IV. Participants of the Global Sustainability Initiative Panel

The initial participants in the Global Sustainability Initiative Panel of 70 members would be drawn from the following:

The U.N. and Its Specialized Agencies with representation from: the World Health Organization, World Meteorological Organization, the U.N. Environmental Programme, International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, the International Telecommunication Union, U.N. Office of Disarmament Affairs , the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization, the U.N. Office of Outer Space Affairs, and The International Bank of Reconstruction and Development (Up to 20 members).

World Economic Forum

This includes designated representatives from the World Economic Forum (up to 9 members, each from a different country).

Space Agencies

Six representatives from the world’s largest space agencies would be designated to participate: National Aeronautical and Space Administration, China National Space Administration, European Space Agency, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Roscosmos, and Indian Space Research Organisation (up to 6 members).

Nongovernmental Organizations

Ten experts from representatives drawn from world-recognized, leading NGOs would be designated by the Secretary General of the UN. They would be selected from representative organizations from around the world that work in environmental studies, disarmament and peace-keeping, astronomical hazards, medical research, meteorological studies, population studies, urban studies, and legal affairs (up to 10 members).

Leading Thinkers of the World

They would be designated by the U.N. General Assembly. They might be Nobel Prize winners, world-renowned academics, noted jurists, leading journalists, and business leaders from around the world (up to 15 members).

Representatives from the Developing World

All nations of the United Nations with gross domestic product per capita under $2000 per year will be invited to nominate representatives to the panel. Ten representatives would be selected by lottery from these nominees (up to 10 members).

V. Functioning of Global Sustainability Initiative Panel

This Panel would meet as needed for the first year and then once a year to review the progress made on identifying various global existential risks as displayed on a web-based “Global Threat and Sustainability” display. They would also receive a preliminary review in designated sub-panels and then as a panel-of-the-whole. This international and interdisciplinary Panel would review progress made toward new and improved actions to mitigate and lower the level of these risks. The purpose of the interdisciplinary review and discussion would be to understand linkages between various threats.

The first meeting of this Panel would be in person and be convened at the Vienna International Centre, Vienna, Austria. Subsequent meetings may be held electronically. The primary purpose of the first meeting is to carry out two mandates. The first mandate would be to agree on a specific list of global potential existential risks that could include up to 20 existential threats to human and natural life on Earth. All of the global risks included in the approved listing would provide (i) a brief description of the global threat, (ii) major contributing factors to the risk, and (iii) potential actions, programs, technologies, or systems that might be developed, perfected, or implemented to address these risks.

Secondly, this group would agree on an interdisciplinary staffing plan of no more than 75 professionals and 25 support staff. Under their elected head, this staff would work on addressing these planetary risk factors and mitigating strategies, risk reduction programs, competitive challenges, research programs, panel discussions, new start-up ventures, or other initiatives during the course of the year. This staffing plan would define the primary location of the Initiative. However, there would be a broad understanding that most participants could work from their home offices and participate electronically in the efforts of the Initiative.

The seconded staff, even though working remotely, would dedicate 100% of their worktime for the Initiative. However, exceptions could be agreed upon under special conditions. The Panel would also elect an executive to lead this global effort. Panel will prepare documents and deliberative processes and indicate: (i) key potential existential threats and their initial description in terms of why they constitute major risks, along with ways that these threats might be mitigated; and (ii) possible key professionals and support staff.

VI. Meetings of the Global Sustainability Initiative Panel

Subsequent annual meetings of the Panel will be held electronically to review annual reports on progress made to mitigate these risks, indicate the correlation between progress on the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals, assess the progress made toward monitoring each risk factor, progress as regards formulating programs or strategies to mitigate or contain the identified threat, and recommend changes to the threat list. Such meetings would develop a final report that would go to the U.N. General Assembly, the Heads of State of all nations in the world, and all the participants in the Global Sustainability Initiative Panel. It would identify programs and initiatives with an indication of how these efforts might be undertaken.

VII. United Nations Global Sustainability Risk Assessment Process

The United Nations Secretariat and other entities designated by the Secretary-General of the United Nations, in cooperation with the Panel, shall prepare each year, subsequent to the first report of the Global Sustainability Initiative Panel, a public report on all of the risk factors identified by the Panel as existential threats to human sustainability and natural life on Earth. This report will provide an assessment of the current level of efforts to detect these various threats, assess the level and probability of their occurrence, and assess the degree of effectiveness of global cooperative efforts to mitigate them. This report shall seek to achieve a common position on these matters and shall be published, distributed online, and released worldwide. There would be a Global Risk Alert issued to the world press that indicates each risk area. On a ten-point color-coded scale, the currently perceived level of risk to the continued sustainability of human civilization will be indicated for each and every risk area. This Global Risk Alert will indicate progress or risk increase for each threat concern agreed by the Panel.

VIII. Fifth-Year Threshold Review of Progress

The fifth Meeting of the Panel would formally review the progress made on each of the identified planetary risks to understand better the degree of risk associated with each identified threat. The Panel would also review (i) the degree to which progress had been made to mitigate each risk, (ii) the results of research undertaken, development efforts, challenge competitions, new entrepreneurial initiatives, and conferences and panel discussions held. The result of this review would be submitted in the form of a report to the U.N. General Assembly, the Heads of State of all nations in the world and all the participants in the Global Sustainability Initiative Panel. Such a report would include the case for and against the continuation of this Global Sustainability effort.

IX. Continuing Effort for Global Sustainability

The work of the Panel and the expert staff shall continue after the first 5 years unless the Global Sustainability Panel decides the work as mandated in this agreement has achieved its purpose or is not of sufficient value and productivity to continue.