Abstract
In this forward-looking conclusion, the authors offer their reflections on 75 years of non-use of nuclear weapons and their predictions for future key issues of nuclear security. Topics include discussion of the likelihood of nuclear weapon use between major and regional powers and by subnational groups; the effect of emerging technologies on strategic stability; and possible further proliferation of nuclear weapons. They address the key looming issues for the US nuclear policy, with emphasis on the challenge of continuing to ensure the readiness of the US stockpile in the absence of testing and the role of nuclear power in addressing the climate crisis.
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Notes
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Thomas Schelling, “An Astonishing Sixty Years: The Legacy of Hiroshima,” Nobel Prize Lecture, December 8, 2005.
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Ibid.
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Andrea Kendall-Taylor, David Shullman, and Dan McCormick, “Navigating Sino-Russian Defense Cooperation,” War on the Rocks, August 5, 2020.
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Mohammed Hafez, Suicide Bombers in Iraq, United States Institute of Peace, 2007.
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“Remarks by President Trump on the Death of ISIS Leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,” The White House, October 27, 2019.
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For arguments in favor of nuclear disarmament, see William J. Perry’s My Journey at the Nuclear Brink (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2015).
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Greg Webb “Trump Officials Consider Nuclear Testing,” Arms Control Today, June 2020.
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Sarah Bidgood, “A Nuclear Test Would Blow Up in Trump’s Face,” Foreign Policy, June 11, 2020.
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Steven Pifer, “Don’t Resume Nuclear Testing,” Commentary: The Center for International Security and Cooperation, the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, May 26, 2020.
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Max Roser, “Why did renewables become so cheap so fast? And what can we do to use this global opportunity for green growth?” Our World in Data, December 01, 2020.
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Richard Rhodes, “Why Nuclear Power Must Be Part of the Energy Solution,” Yale Environment 360, Yale School of the Environment, July 19, 2018.
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Roser.
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Daniel B. Poneman, “We Can’t Solve Climate Change without Nuclear Power—Renewable energy, carbon-capture technologies, efficiency measures, reforestation and other steps are important—but they won’t get us there,” Scientific American Blog, May 24, 2019, accessed at blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/we-cant-solve-climate-change-without-nuclear-power, December 9, 2020.
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Nacht, M., Frank, M., Prussin, S. (2021). Conjectures and Conclusions. In: Nuclear Security. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-75085-5_7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-75085-5_7
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