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An Approach for Impact-Based Heavy Rainfall Warning, Based on the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index and Level of Hazard Risk

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Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Disaster Risks

Abstract

This study focuses on developed a methodology for impact-based heavy rainfall warning system in Sri Lanka. A warning matrix is developed as a basic tool of the impact-based warning system. The matrix relates to the level of risk to heavy rain hazards and likelihood of occurrence of imminent severe weather. Likelihood of extreme weather is determined by Total Precipitation Index (TPI) from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Extreme Forecasts Index (EFI). The level of the risk is examined by based on vulnerability and hazards related to the heavy rain (mainly flood and landslides) in spatial grid scale. Levels of impact is calculated by using warning matrix. The severity of the warning is visualized using four color map-based system. This approach is tested through five case studies of typical disaster events occurred in Sri Lanka. Case study results provide comprehensive evidence for usefulness of hazards risk assessment in this study. Impact-based forecasts generated by all case studies are given equally good results and this information enables for disaster managers to take early action to prevent or minimize adverse effects of hazardous weather.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Meteorology, Bauddhaloka Mawatha, Colombo-07, Sri Lanka

    M. M. P. Mendis

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  1. M. M. P. Mendis
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Global Disaster Resilience Centre, University of Huddersfield, Huddersfield, UK

    Dilanthi Amaratunga

  2. Global Disaster Resilience Centre, University of Huddersfield, Huddersfield, UK

    Richard Haigh

  3. Global Disaster Resilience Centre, University of Huddersfield, Huddersfield, UK

    Nuwan Dias

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Mendis, M.M.P. (2021). An Approach for Impact-Based Heavy Rainfall Warning, Based on the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index and Level of Hazard Risk. In: Amaratunga, D., Haigh, R., Dias, N. (eds) Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Disaster Risks. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73003-1_37

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