Abstract
The adverse effects of extreme disasters on crop production, often assessed using crop models or field experiments, may be overestimated as these methods focus on natural impacts while ignoring the behavioral changes of farmers and international traders. This study takes barley as an example and uses GTAP model (a global economic equilibrium model) to showcase the role of the behavioral changes and to assess the economic impact of climate change on crop production after the occurrence of most extreme disasters. The results show that under RCP 8.5, the impact of extreme disasters on barley yields in China and Australia are –12% and –25.8%, respectively. After considering farmers and international traders’ behavioral change, the effects of climate change on barley production in China and Australia are reduced to –0.38% and –3.5%, respectively. Variations in production level mainly depend on the extent of farmers’ ability to expand barley sown area and the severity of government intervention in agricultural exports. In order to reduce the impact of disasters on food supply, it is necessary to give full play to the role of market mechanisms and to reduce government interventions in trade.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Bosello F, Nicholls R, Richards J, Roson R, Tol RJ (2012) Economic impacts of climate change in Europe: sea-level rise. Clim Change 112:63–81
Brown ME, Carr ER, Grace KL, Wiebe K, Funk CC, Attavanich W, Buja L (2017) Do markets and trade help or hurt the global food system adapt to climate change? Food Policy 68:154–159
Cheng CS, Auld H, Li Q, Li G (2012) Possible impacts of climate change on extreme weather events at local scale in south–central Canada. Clim Change 112(3–4):963–979
Ciscar JC, Iglesias A, Feyen L, Szabó L, Regemorter DV, Amelung B et al (2011) Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108(7):2678–2683
DESA/UNSD (2017) United Nations Comtrade database. https://comtrade.un.org/data
FAO (2017) Data available on the website. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/
Field CB, Barros VR, Mach K, Mastrandrea M (2014) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change
Golub A et al (2013) Global climate policy impacts on livestock, land use, livelihoods, and food security. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1108772109
Hertel TW, Burke MB, Lobell DB (2010) The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030. Glob Environ Chang 20:577–585
Hoogenboom G et al (2015) Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Version 4.6 (http://dssat.net). DSSAT Foundation, Prosser, WA
Lesk C, Rowhani P, Ramankutty N (2016) Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production. Nature 529(7584):84–87
Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333(6042):616–620
Lobell DB et al (2013) The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States. Nat Clim Change 3:497–501
Meehl GA, Zwiers F, Evans J, Knutson T, Mearns L, Whetton P (2000) Trends in extreme weather and climate events: issues related to modeling extremes in projections of future climate change. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81(3):427–436
Monfreda C, Ramankutty N, Foley JA (2008) Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000. Global Biogeochem Cycles 22:GB1022
Nelson GC et al (2014) Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 111:3274–3279
Reilly J, Hohmann N (1993) Climate change and agriculture: the role of international trade. Am Econ Rev 83(2):306–312
Rosenzweig C, Elliott J, Deryng D, Ruane AC, Müller C, Arneth A, Neumann K (2014) Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 111(9):3268–3273
Wheeler T, Von Braun J (2013) Climate change impacts on global food security. Science 341(6145):508–513
Xie W et al (2018) Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat. Nat Plants 4:964–973
You L et al (2009) Spatial production allocation model (SPAM) 2000, version 3 Release 2 (IFPRI, Washington, DC). http://MapSpam.info
Acknowledgments
The authors thank Professor Erda Lin, Wei Xiong, and Jie Pan’s team from China Academy of Agriculture Sciences for their contribution to providing simulation data on physical yield changes using ESM and DASSAT. The authors also thank Professor Adam Rose, Yasuhide Okuyama, and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments to improve this write-up.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Appendix
Appendix
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2019 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Xie, W., Cui, Q., Ali, T. (2019). The Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Grain Production and Policy Implications: A CGE Model Analysis. In: Okuyama, Y., Rose, A. (eds) Advances in Spatial and Economic Modeling of Disaster Impacts. Advances in Spatial Science. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-16237-5_14
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-16237-5_14
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-16236-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-16237-5
eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceEconomics and Finance (R0)