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A Geo-Additive Bayesian Discrete-Time Survival Model and its Application to Spatial Analysis of Childhood Mortality in Malawi

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Abstract

We describe a flexible geo-additive Bayesian survival model that controls, simultaneously, for spatial dependence and possible nonlinear or time-varying effects of other variables. Inference is fully Bayesian and is based on recently developed Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. In illustrating the model we introduce a spatial dimension in modelling under-five mortality among Malawian children using data from Malawi Demographic and Health Survey of 2000. The results show that district-level socioeconomic characteristics are important determinants of childhood mortality. More importantly, a separate spatial process produces district clustering of childhood mortality indicating the importance of spatial effects. The visual nature of the maps presented in this paper highlights relationships that would, otherwise, be overlooked in standard methods.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Clinical Sciences Research Institute, CSB, UHCW Campus, Warwick Medical School, Clifford Bridge Road, Coventry, CV2 2DX, UK

    Ngianga-Bakwin Kandala

  2. Department of Statistics, Stockholm University, SE-106 91, Stockholm, Sweden

    Gebrenegus Ghilagaber

Authors
  1. Ngianga-Bakwin Kandala
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  2. Gebrenegus Ghilagaber
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Correspondence to Gebrenegus Ghilagaber.

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Kandala, NB., Ghilagaber, G. A Geo-Additive Bayesian Discrete-Time Survival Model and its Application to Spatial Analysis of Childhood Mortality in Malawi. Qual Quant 40, 935–957 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-005-3268-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-005-3268-6

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