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Mapping the coastal risk for the next century, including sea level rise and changes in the coastline: application to Charlestown RI, USA

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Abstract

A source–pathway-receptor method is used to assess the risk of the coastal community of Charlestown, RI, USA, to the 100-year storm, including effects of sea level rise (SLR) and shoreline/dune erosion. The 100-year storm is simulated using a chain of stochastic and physics-based models combined with a scenario-based approach. Storm surge and wave spectral parameters, obtained from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS), are used as boundary conditions for high-resolution wave simulations, performed in the coastal and inundation zones using the steady-state spectral wave model STWAVE. Selected scenarios are defined to assess the magnitude of the variability in predicted damage resulting from the uncertainty in SLR, erosion rate, and time at which the 100-year storm would occur. Erosion rates are based on empirical analyses of historic rates of shoreline change, SLR measurements, and coastal erosion theory. The risk is measured in terms of damage to individual houses, based on damage curves developed in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, NACCS study. In addition, remediation scenarios are explored, demonstrating that a combination of dune replenishment and an increase in the residential resilience by elevating structures can significantly diminish the risk to the coastal community.

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Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge support for this work from the RI Coastal Resource Management Council. The application of the models to Charlestown, RI was supported by Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Grant #B-13-DS-44-0001 and administered through the State of Rhode Island, Executive Office of Commerce, Office of Housing and Community Development (OHCD). For providing the results of the NACCS study, we are indebted to Jane Smith, Mary Bryant Mary Cialone, Norberto Nadal-Carabello, and Jeff Melby of the US Army Corps of Engineers. We also thank the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ocean Engineering, University of RI, Narragansett, RI, USA

    Annette Grilli & Malcolm L. Spaulding

  2. Eastern Connecticut State University, Willimantic, CT, USA

    Bryan A. Oakley

  3. Environmental Data Center, University of RI, Kingston, RI, USA

    Chris Damon

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  1. Annette Grilli
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  2. Malcolm L. Spaulding
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  3. Bryan A. Oakley
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  4. Chris Damon
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Correspondence to Annette Grilli.

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Grilli, A., Spaulding, M.L., Oakley, B.A. et al. Mapping the coastal risk for the next century, including sea level rise and changes in the coastline: application to Charlestown RI, USA. Nat Hazards 88, 389–414 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2871-x

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