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Hydrological hazards in Russia: origin, classification, changes and risk assessment

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Abstract

Hydrological extreme events pose an imminent risk to society and economics. In this paper, various aspects of hydrological hazards in Russia are analysed at different scales of risk assessment. It is shown that the number of hydrological and meteorological hazards in Russia has been growing every year. The frequency of economic losses associated with extreme low flow in this century has increased by factor five compared to the last decade of the previous century. With regard to floods, an interesting spatial patter can be observed. On the one hand, the number of floods in the Asian part of the country has increased, whereas on the other hand, the number and intensity of floods in estuarine areas in the European part of Russia have significantly reduced since the middle of the twentieth century, especially in the 2000s. This decrease can be attributed to runoff flooding in the mouths of regulated rivers, with an effective system of flood and ice jam protection. The analysis shows that there is an 8–12-year periodicity in the number of flood occurrences and that flood surges have intensified over the last 110 years, especially on the European territory of Russia. An integrated index that accounts for flood hazards and socio-economic vulnerability was calculated for each region of Russia. A classification of flood risk was also developed, taking into account more than 20 hydrological and social–economic characteristics. Based on these characteristics, hazard and vulnerability maps for entire Russia were generated which can be used for water management and the development of future water resources plans.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Contract No. 16-35-60080) with regard to the calculation, methods and data. The assessment of the flood risk was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Project No. 14-17-00155). J. Hall would like to acknowledge the support of the ERC Advanced Grant “FloodChange”, Project No. 291 152. We, the authors particularly wish to express our gratitude to our colleague, friend and teacher Nikolay Alexeevskij, who conceived this paper but unfortunately passed away before its completion.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Land Hydrology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    N. L. Frolova, M. B. Kireeva, D. V. Magrickiy, N. A. Efremova, A. A. Sazonov, S. A. Agafonova & P. A. Belyakova

  2. Water Problem Institute, Moscow, Russia

    M. B. Bologov, E. A. Korobkina, E. P. Rets & R. G. Djamalov

  3. RIHMI-WDC, Obninsk, Russia

    V. N. Kopylov & V. A. Semenov

  4. Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, TU Wien, Vienna, Austria

    J. Hall

  5. FGBU “DonVodInformCenter”, Novocherkassk, Russia

    A. E. Kosolapov

  6. Don Basin Water Management Organization, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

    E. V. Dorozhkin

  7. Institute of Hydromechanics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany

    Y. Akutina

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  1. N. L. Frolova
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Correspondence to M. B. Kireeva.

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Frolova, N.L., Kireeva, M.B., Magrickiy, D.V. et al. Hydrological hazards in Russia: origin, classification, changes and risk assessment. Nat Hazards 88 (Suppl 1), 103–131 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2632-2

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