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Assessment of the impacts of climate variability on total water storage across Africa: implications for groundwater resources management

Evaluation des impacts de la variabilité climatique sur l’ensemble des réserves en eau en Afrique: conséquences sur la gestion des ressources en eau souterraine

Evaluación de los impactos de la variabilidad climática en el almacenamiento total de agua en África: Implicancias para la gestión de los recursos de agua subterránea

气候变化对非洲整个储水量影响评价:地下水资源管理的启示

Avaliação dos impactos da variabilidade climática na distribuição do armazenamento total de agua na África: implicações para a gestão de recursos hídricos subterrâneos

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Abstract

The links between climate variability, depicted by time series of oceanic indices, and changes in total water and groundwater storage are investigated across nine large aquifer basins of the African continent. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission’s observations represent a remarkable tool that can provide insight into the dynamics of terrestrial hydrology in areas where direct in situ observations are limited. In order to evaluate the impact of interannual and multidecadal climate variability on groundwater resources, this study assesses the relationship between synoptic controls on climate and total water storage estimates from (i) GRACE from 2002 to 2013 and (ii) a two-variable climate-driven model that is able to reconstruct past storage changes from 1982 to 2011. The estimates are then compared to time series of groundwater levels to show the extent to which total water storage covaries with groundwater storage. Results indicate that rainfall patterns associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the main driver of changes in interannual groundwater storage, whereas the Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation (AMO) plays a significant role in decadal to multidecadal variability. The combined effect of ENSO and AMO could trigger significant changes in recharge to the aquifers and groundwater storage, in particular in the Sahel. These findings could help decision-makers prepare more effective climate-change adaptation plans at both national and transboundary levels.

Résumé

Les liens entre la variabilité climatique, représentés par des séries chronologiques d’indices océaniques, et les changements de volumes d’eau total et d’eaux souterraines stockés (réserves d’eau) sont étudiées au niveau de neuf grands bassins aquifères du continent africain. Les observations de la mission Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) constituent un outil remarquable, susceptible d’approfondir les connaissances sur la dynamique de l’hydrologie superficielle dans les secteurs où les observations de terrain sont limitées. Afin d’évaluer l’impact de la variabilité interannuelle et multidécennale du climat sur les ressources en eau souterraine, cette étude évalue la relation entre le climat et les estimations de volume total des réserves en eau, à partir (i) des données graphiques de GRACE de 2002 à 2013 et (II) des données graphiques des résultats d’un modèle à deux variables assujetti sur le climat susceptible de reconstituer les évolutions passées des réserves entre 1982 et 2011. Les estimations sont ensuite comparées aux chroniques des niveaux piézométriques afin de montrer dans quelle mesure les réserves en eau totales varient avec les réserves en eau souterraine. Les résultats indiquent que le comportement des précipitations associé à l’oscillation australe – El Niño (ENSO) contrôle les modifications interannuelles des réserves en eaux souterraines, alors que l’oscillation multidécennale atlantique (AMO) joue un rôle significatif dans la variabilité décennale à multidécennale. Les effets combinés d’ENSO et d’AMO peuvent provoquer des modifications notables de la recharge des aquifères et des réserves en eau souterraine, en particulier dans le Sahel. Ces résultats pourraient aider les décideurs à préparer des plans d’adaptation au changement climatique plus efficaces, tant au niveau national que transfrontalier.

Resumen

Las relaciones entre la variabilidad climática, representada por series de tiempo de índices oceánicos, y los cambios en el almacenamiento total de agua y agua subterránea se investigan en nueve grandes cuencas de acuíferos del continente africano. Las observaciones de la misión Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) representan una herramienta notable que puede proporcionar información sobre la dinámica de la hidrología terrestre en áreas donde las observaciones directas in situ son limitadas. Con el fin de evaluar el impacto de la variabilidad climática interanual y multidecadal en los recursos de agua subterránea, este estudio evalúa la relación entre los controles sinópticos sobre el clima y las estimaciones de almacenamiento total de agua de (i) GRACE de 2002 a 2013 y (ii) un modelo de dos variables forzado por el clima que es capaz de reconstruir los cambios de almacenamiento pasados desde 1982 hasta 2011. Las estimaciones se comparan con series temporales de niveles de agua subterránea para mostrar el grado en que el almacenamiento total de agua covaría con el almacenamiento de agua subterránea. Los resultados indican que los patrones de lluvia asociados con la Oscilación Austral de El Niño (ENSO) son el principal impulsor de los cambios interanuales de almacenamiento del agua subterránea, mientras que la Oscilación Multidecadal del Atlántico (AMO) desempeña un papel significativo en la variabilidad decadal a multidecadal. El efecto combinado de ENSO y AMO podría desencadenar cambios significativos en la recarga de los acuíferos y el almacenamiento de agua subterránea, en particular en el Sahel. Estos hallazgos podrían ayudar a los responsables de la toma de decisiones a preparar planes de adaptación al cambio climático más efectivos tanto a nivel nacional como transfronterizo.

摘要

调查研究了非洲大陆9个大型含水层盆地由海洋指数时间序列描述的气候变化与整个水储量和地下水储量变化之间的联系。重力恢复和气候试验项目观测结果展示了在直接现场观测受限的地区可以深入了解陆地水文动力学的一种卓越的工具。为了评估年际和数个十年间的气候变化对地下水资源的影响,本研究评价了天气对气候的控制因素和整个出水量估算值之间的相互关系,出水量估算值是2002年到2013年通过重力恢复和气候试验以及1982年到2011年通过能够重建过去储量变化的二变量气候驱使模型得到的。然后估算值与地下水水位的时间序列对比,显示出整个水储量与地下水储量的共变程度。结果表明,与厄尔尼诺南振荡相关的降雨模式是年际地下水储量变化的主要驱动力,而大西洋数十年振荡在十年间到数十年间变化中发挥着重要作用。厄尔尼诺南振荡和大西洋数十年振荡的综合影响可触发含水层补给量和地下水储量发生重大变化,特别是在萨赫勒地带。这些发现有助于决策者在国家和跨界层面上制定更有效的气候变化适应规划。

Resumo

Os elos entre variabilidade climática, ilustradas por series temporais de índices oceânicos, e alterações no armazenamento de agua total e subterrânea são estudados em nove bacias aquíferas do continente Africano. As observações da missão GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) representam uma ferramenta notável que permite compreender as dinâmicas da hidrologia terrestre em áreas onde observações diretas são limitadas. De forma a avaliar o impacto da variabilidade climática interanual e multidecadal nos recursos hídricos subterrâneos, este estudo avalia a relação entre controles sinóticos sobre o clima e estimativas do armazenamento total de agua a partir de (i) GRACE de 2002 a 2013 e (ii) um modelo de duas variáveis derivadas do clima capaz de reconstruir as alterações de armazenamento de 1982 a 2011. As estimativas são subsequentemente comparadas com as series temporais de níveis de aguas subterrâneas de forma a demonstrar o quanto o armazenamento total de agua covaria com o armazenamento de águas subterrâneas. Resultados indicam que os padrões de precipitação associados com El Nino Oscilação Sul (ENOS) são os impulsionadores principais da variação interanual de armazenamento das águas subterrâneas, enquanto que a Oscilação Multidecadal do Atlântico (OMA) tem um papel importante na variabilidade multidecadal. O efeito conjunto do ENOS e OMA poderá desencadear mudanças significativas na recarga dos aquíferos e no armazenamento de águas subterrâneas, em particular no Sahel. Estes resultados podem ajudar decisores a preparar planos para adaptação as mudanças climáticas a nível nacional e transfronteiriço mais efetivos.

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Acknowledgements

This study is a contribution to the UNESCO International Hydrological Programme (IHP) Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures of Humanity and Climate Change (GRAPHIC) project. The authors are grateful for the support provided by Richard Taylor (UCL), Aurélien Dumont, and Marina Rubio (UNESCO-IHP – Groundwater Systems and Settlements Section) on the review of this paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. UNESCO International Hydrological Programme (IHP), Paris, France

    Tales Carvalho Resende & Alice Aureli

  2. University of Rennes, Géosciences Rennes - UMR 6118, Rennes, France

    Laurent Longuevergne

  3. Department of Earth & Climate Sciences, San Francisco State University, San Francisco, USA

    Jason J. Gurdak

  4. University of Avignon-INRA, Hydrogeology Laboratory, UMR EMMAH, Avignon, France

    Marc Leblanc

  5. IRD, UMR HydroSciences, University of Montpellier, Montpellier, France

    Guillaume Favreau

  6. IRD, University of Grenoble-Alpes, CNRS, Environmental Geosciences Institute, Grenoble, France

    Guillaume Favreau

  7. International Groundwater Resources Assessment Centre (IGRAC), Delft, The Netherlands

    Nienke Ansems

  8. Van der Gun Hydro-Consulting, Schalkhaar, The Netherlands

    Jac Van der Gun

  9. Department of Geology, University Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal

    Cheikh B. Gaye

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  1. Tales Carvalho Resende
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Correspondence to Tales Carvalho Resende.

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This article is part of the topical collection “Determining groundwater sustainability from long-term piezometry in Sub-Saharan Africa”

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Carvalho Resende, T., Longuevergne, L., Gurdak, J.J. et al. Assessment of the impacts of climate variability on total water storage across Africa: implications for groundwater resources management. Hydrogeol J 27, 493–512 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-018-1864-5

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