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Winds: intensity and power density simulated by RegCM4 over South America in present and future climate

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Abstract

Since wind is an important source of renewable energy, it has attracted attention worldwide. Several studies have been developed in order to know favorable areas where wind farms can be implemented. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to project changes in wind intensity and in wind power density (PD), at 100 m high, over South America and adjacent oceans, by downscaling and ensemble techniques. Regional climate model version 4 (RegCM4) was nested in the output of three global climate models, considering the RCP8.5 scenario. RegCM4 ensemble in the present climate (1979–2005) was validated through comparisons with ERA-Interim reanalysis. The ensemble represents well the spatial pattern of the winds, but there are some differences in relation to the wind intensity registered by ERA-Interim, mainly in center-east Brazil and Patagonia. The comparison between the future climate (2020–2050 and 2070–2098) and the present one shows that there is an increase in wind intensity and PD on the north of SA, center-east Brazil (except in summer) and latitudes higher than 50°S. Such increase is more intense in the period 2070–2098.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES), the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG) and the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP; SANSAO Project) for their financial support. Besides, the authors are grateful to the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) for providing the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) for RegCM4 and Marta Llopart for carrying out the simulations in ICTP in the scope of the CORDEX project.

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  1. Natural Resources Institute, Federal University of Itajubá, Av. BPS, 1303, Itajubá, MG, 37500-903, Brazil

    Michelle Simões Reboita, Tatiana Rocha Amaro & Marcelo Rodrigues de Souza

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Reboita, M.S., Amaro, T.R. & de Souza, M.R. Winds: intensity and power density simulated by RegCM4 over South America in present and future climate. Clim Dyn 51, 187–205 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3913-5

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