Abstract
This work conducts a multi-physics ensemble of air quality projections in order to elucidate the spreads and uncertainties behind the election of the physical parameterizations in the regional climate models. Results indicate that the studied parameterized processes and air pollutants transport and dispersion are closely tied together, and hence the projected changes are strongly affected by the atmospheric variables on the projections for air quality.
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Questioner Name: Stefano Galmarini
Q: Is intra-model ensemble spread the same as multi-model ensemble spread? What are the differences, if any?
A: This assessment reveals the great sensitivity of European air quality to future climate changes, yet highlighting the crucial role played by regional climate model (RCM) physics in air quality projections. The results of this contribution point to spreads among various simulations using the same model (intra-model spread) of similar magnitude to the spreads obtained in multi-model ensembles of air pollution. Note that in the multi-model ensemble there is a mixture of domain configurations and resolutions, nesting strategies, dynamic cores and physical configurations. All these factors contribute to the multi-model ensemble spread, while in our multi-physics single-model ensemble the spread is only attributable to the physical configuration of the regional model. Hence, the similar magnitude of the spreads obtained in both cases suggests that a large part of the multi-model spread could derive from the fact that the different models employ different physical configurations.
Q: Special attention should be paid to the use of the concepts “accuracy” versus “uncertainty”.
A: The questioner raises an interest concern. This contribution does not cover the topic of accuracy of the simulations (e.g. the biases of the different configurations that are part of the air quality ensemble), since it has been identified elsewhere [3]. This work tries to identify the uncertainty associated to the election of the physics configuration of the RCM. Uncertainty is here defined as the differences among the various ensemble members (spread). These differences in the future projections could be considered as a matter of uncertainty in the change signals (as similarly assumed in multi-model studies).
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Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Jerez, S., Navarro, J.J.G., Lorente, R., Montávez, J.P. (2014). Future Air Pollution in Europe from a Multi-physics Ensemble of Climate Change-Air Quality Projections. In: Steyn, D., Builtjes, P., Timmermans, R. (eds) Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXII. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5577-2_1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5577-2_1
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