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Travel and Tourism

Handbook of Cliometrics

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Abstract

Travel and tourism, once activities that were open only to the elite, have become increasingly accessible to many more people. As a result, tourism is now an important economic activity worldwide. In this chapter, we discuss the conceptual issues in defining and measuring travel and tourism, efforts to econometrically estimate the demand for travel, and the possible links between tourism and economic growth. We also describe the rise and decline of seaside resorts in England and the cliometric history of tourism in the United States, particularly emphasizing the historical forces that shaped tourism in Hawaii. And while economic historians have largely neglected the topic, we identify issues on which the tools of cliometrics might be brought to bear.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The World Tourism Organization is an umbrella organization for world tourism that was started in 1925 as the International Congress of Official Tourist Traffic Associations and became the WTO in 1975.

  2. 2.

    This includes direct and indirect contributions according to the World Travel & Tourism Council: https://www.wttc.org/. The Bureau of Economic Analysis shows a slightly smaller share for the US economy.

  3. 3.

    The purpose of traveling has been measured by the Survey of International Air Travelers, administered by the U.S. Department of Commerce, which asks travelers about the main purpose of their trip. This survey has been administered to a random sample of international air travelers to or from the US (excluding Canadians) on a monthly basis since 1983.

  4. 4.

    Okubo and Planting (1998, p. 11). The BEA prefers the term visitor to tourist because it is more descriptive of the travel activities included in the satellite accounts (Ibid, p. 8).

  5. 5.

    For the United States, the BEA defines this area as 50–100 miles of home, whereas the Consumer Expenditures Survey of the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses 75 miles, while the American Travel Survey of the Bureau of Transportation Statistics uses 100 miles, and private surveys use 50–100 miles (Ibid, p. 11). In any case, the distance would be determined by the existing technology and costs of transportation, so would surely vary over time.

  6. 6.

    Early travel guides were developed as the Grand Tour became more widespread (Burk 2005).

  7. 7.

    Note that exchange rates are part of relative price measures when used, as described by Lim (1997). Also, as Lim (1999) and Song et al. (2010) point out, transportation costs and income are typically highly correlated, so many studies include only income.

  8. 8.

    Lim (1997) found that 56 of the 100 papers she reviewed used only log-linear models while 14 others used both log-linear and linear models.

  9. 9.

    One could use other models like the Linear Expenditure System (LES) developed by Stone (1953), the Rotterdam Model (Thiel 1965), or the translog model (Christensen et al. 1975), but most scholars in the tourism literature have used the AIDS models, which do not impose a priori restrictions on the elasticities as do the LES models. See Deaton and Muelbauer (1980) for a discussion of how the AIDS models compare to the Rotterdam model.

  10. 10.

    See also Kimura and Lee (2006) who found that trade in services is better predicted by the gravity model than is trade in goods.

  11. 11.

    Whether one uses per capita income, total income, or some other measure will depend on the purpose of the study; these differences can account for some of the variation in the income elasticity measures. Peng et al. (2015, Table 4) also found that there is some variation in income and price elasticity estimates depending on the general type of model used and the frequency of the underlying data.

  12. 12.

    The regions referred to here are for the region of origin. Crouch (1995, p. 112) also reports results for region of destination.

  13. 13.

    The single US case (Tang and Jang 2009) gave only a short run result, which showed that economic growth led tourism development.

  14. 14.

    Oh (2005) claims that when tourism is a small share of GDP, we are more likely to see the “causality” run from GDP to tourism.

  15. 15.

    She also points out that tourism often carries substantial costs on infrastructure or other tourism-promoting activities.

  16. 16.

    The Marshall Plan recognized this possibility as a way to help war-torn countries recover after World War II.

  17. 17.

    This result is reminiscent of North’s (1961) story about US economic growth. The export proceeds entered the US income stream in the South, but the proceeds were used to demand food from the West and manufactured goods and services from the North, thereby stimulating economic growth and development in the rest of the country, but not in the exporting region.

  18. 18.

    The internationalization of British tourism began in the previous decade with the first air package holiday to Corsica (Williams and Shaw 1997, p. 3).

  19. 19.

    As car ownership increased and roads improved, tourists were no longer captive to the resort near the railway terminal.

  20. 20.

    Absent to a large extent from discussions of this shift from seaside resorts in the UK to resorts in Spain is the impact of changes in taste. See Urry (1997) for a discussion of the impact of cultural changes.

  21. 21.

    Package deals also were a way to get around restrictions on the amount of currency that could be taken out of the country.

  22. 22.

    See Demetriadi (1997). Seaside resorts were harmed as well by the rise of second and third vacations, which became more common and were shorter in duration. Travelers increasingly took their one long vacation overseas, and spent their shorter vacations and weekend breaks domestically and increasingly in locations that were more readily accessible than the seaside (Cooper 1997).

  23. 23.

    They say it should be possible to apply their estimation techniques to earlier years in order to get a longer time series.

  24. 24.

    Its output is low in relation to employment, which reflects the prevalence of low-wage and part-time employment in much of the industry (Beatty et al. 2010, p. 10).

  25. 25.

    For those who ascribe to Douglass North’s idea that American growth was propelled by the growth of cotton exports, it is worth noting that the income from those exports never exceeded 6% of GNP.

  26. 26.

    U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (2017) “Travel and Tourism Satellite Account” Sept. 2017, and “National Income and Product Accounts: GDP and Personal Income, Section 6”. The earliest estimates cover 1992, 1996, and 1997 (Kass and Okubo 2000, Table 1, and an earlier and preliminary estimate for 1992 in Okubo and Planting 1998). The share rose to 4.3% in 1998–2000.

  27. 27.

    U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (2017) “Travel and Tourism Satellite Account” Sept. 2017, and “National Income and Product Accounts: Gross Domestic Product Third Quarter 2017. Consumer demand for tourism is reported as Direct Tourism Output in the Satellite Accounts.

  28. 28.

    See OECD (2016), Country Profiles-United States. There are also around 40 million who travel over land to Canada and Mexico.

  29. 29.

    This statistical record covers only Americans traveling overseas, and does not include travel to places reached over land, mostly Canada and Mexico (Carter et al. 2006, series Dh324).

  30. 30.

    Surveys were taken in 1969, 1977, 1983, 1990, 1995, and 2001. In the second survey, taken in 1977, long-distance travel was included but was confined to trips of 75 miles-or-more taken during the 14-day period preceding the survey.

  31. 31.

    The Travel Data Center was established in 1973 and is now called the U.S. Travel Association. https://www.ustravel.org/.

  32. 32.

    Their model specified 15 different expenditure categories, such as commercial lodging and variable auto/truck costs, and related SIC business types (Frechtling 1976).

  33. 33.

    The national totals for this period vary in terms of the states covered from year to year, but even if we made generous allowances for the states that were missing in these years, the increase in spending during this period would be greater than in the post-1983 period.

  34. 34.

    Space limitations preclude the inclusion of a fuller table showing the state rankings over time.

  35. 35.

    In 1998, the research function of the Visitor and Convention Bureau was turned over to the state’s Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism (Mak 2008).

  36. 36.

    See Mak (2008). The rate in the 10 years before statehood was 22% per year from 1949 to 1959 and for the 10 years after it was 20% from 1959 to 1969 (calculated from data in Schmitt (1977, pp. 273–74, Table 11.7).

  37. 37.

    The comparison used current price output values, implicitly assuming that prices rose in Hawaii at the same rates as for the US.

  38. 38.

    On principle, the developer had the alternative of paying the equivalent of a nontourist job in cash ($25,000); in practice, the requirement could be met in a number of other ways as well.

  39. 39.

    See Grandy (2002) for a discussion of these efforts.

  40. 40.

    See Blackford (2001, esp. ch.3) for a discussion of land tax issues as well as Native Hawaiian land issues.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, USA

    Thomas Weiss

  2. Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA, USA

    Brandon Dupont

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  1. BETA/CNRS (UMR 7522), University of Strasbourg Institute for Advanced Study, Strasbourg Cedex, France

    Claude Diebolt

  2. University of Wisconsin Department of Economics, La Crosse, WI, USA

    Michael Haupert

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Weiss, T., Dupont, B. (2018). Travel and Tourism. In: Diebolt, C., Haupert, M. (eds) Handbook of Cliometrics. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40458-0_74-1

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    Travel and Tourism
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    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40458-0_74-2

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