Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Medium Range Flood Forecasting Example EFAS

  • Reference work entry
  • First Online:
Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting

  • 2149 Accesses

Abstract

Europe repeatedly observes flood events that affect several countries at the same time and which require the coordination of assistance at the European level. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) has been developed specifically to respond to the need for forecasting transnational floods with sufficient lead time to allow coordination of aid at the European level in case the national capacities for emergency management are exceeded. In order to achieve robust and reliable flood forecasting at the continental scale with lead times up to 10 days, EFAS promotes probabilistic forecasting techniques based on multiple numerical weather prediction inputs including ensemble prediction systems. Its aim is to complement existing national flood forecasting services with added value information and to provide European decision makers with coherent overviews on ongoing and upcoming floods in Europe for better planning and coordination of aid. To date, EFAS is a unique system providing daily, probabilistic flood forecast information for the entire of Europe on a single platform. Being a complementary system to national ones, EFAS predicts the probabilities for exceeding critical flood thresholds rather than quantitative information on stream flows. By maintaining a dedicated, multinational partner network of EFAS users, novel research could be transferred directly to the operational flood forecasting centers in Europe. EFAS development started in 2003, and the system has become fully operational under the umbrella of Emergency Management Service of the European Copernicus Space Program in 2011.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 599.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Hardcover Book
USD 799.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • L. Alfieri, D. Velasco, J. Thielen Del Pozo, Flash flood detection through a multi-stage probabilistic warning system for heavy precipitation events. Adv. Geosci. 29, 69–75 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • L. Alfieri, P. Salamon, F. Pappenberger, F. Wetterhall, J. Thielen, Operational early warning systems for water-related hazards in Europe. Environ. Sci. Pol. 21, 35–49 (2012a)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • L. Alfieri, J. Thielen, F. Pappenberger, Ensemble hydro-meteorological simulation for flash flood early detection in southern Switzerland. J. Hydrol. 424–425, 43–153 (2012b)

    Google Scholar 

  • L. Alfieri, M. Berenguer, V. Knechtl, K. Liechti, D. Sempere-Torres, M. Zappa, Flash flood forecasting based on rainfall thresholds, in Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting, ed. by Q. Duan et al. (Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg, this issue). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40457-3_49-1

    Google Scholar 

  • M.H.N. Bakker, Transboundary river floods: vulnerability of continents, international river basins and countries. Ph.D Dissertation, Oregon State University, 276, (2007), http://hdl.handle.net/1957/3821

  • J.C. Bartholmes, J. Thielen, M.H. Ramos, S. Gentilini, The European Flood Alert System EFAS – part 2: statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 13, 141–153 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • K. Bogner, F.Pappenberger, Multiscale error analysis, correction, and predictive uncertainty estimation in a flood forecasting system. Water. Resour. Res (Impact Factor: 3.15) 47 (2011). :https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009137

  • K. Bogner, M. Kalas, Error-correction methods and evaluation of an ensemble based hydrological forecasting system for the Upper Danube catchment. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 9(2), 95–102 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • K. Bogner, H.L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, A. De Roo, J. Thielen, Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the Upper Danube Catchment. Int. J. River Basin Manage. 10(1), 1–12 (2012a). ISSN 1814–2060. https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2011.625359

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • K. Bogner, F. Pappenberger, H.L. Cloke, Technical note: the normal quantile transformation and its application in a flood forecasting system. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 16, 1085–1094 (2012b). ISSN 1027–5606. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1085-2012

  • R. Brazdil, C. Pfister, H. Wanner, H. von Storch, J. Luterbacher, Historical climatology in Europe – the state of the art. Clim. Change 70, 363–430 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • R. Buizza, A. Hollingsworth, F. Lalaurette, A. Ghelli, Probabilistic predictions of precipitation using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Weather Forecast. 14, 168–189 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • H.L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, Ensemble flood forecasting: a review. J. Hydrol. 375(3–4), 613–626 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • H. Cloke, J. Thielen, F. Pappenberger, S. Nobert, G. Balint, C. Edlund, A. Koistinen, C. de Saint-Aubin, E. Sprokkereef, C. Viel, P. Salamon, R. Buizza, Progress in the implementation of Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) in Europe for operational flood forecasting. ECMWF Newsletter 121, 20–24 (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  • H. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, J. Thielen, V. Thiemig, Operational European flood forecasting, in Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity, ed. by J. Wainwright, M. Mulligan, 2nd edn. (Wiley, Chichester, 2013a). https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118351475.ch25

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • H.L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, S.J. van Andel, J. Schaake, J. Thielen, M.-H. Ramos, Hydrological ensemble prediction systems. Hydrol. Process. 27, 1–4 (2013b). https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9679

  • H.L. Cloke, F. Wetterhall, Y. He, J.E. Freer, F. Pappenberger, Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 139(671 part B), 282–297 (2013c). ISSN 1477-870X. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1998

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • M. Collins, S. Knight, Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 365, (1857), 1471–2962 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • A. de Roo, J. Thielen, P. Salamon, K. Bogner, S. Nobert, H.L. Cloke, D. Demeritt, J. Younis, M. Kalas, K. Bódis, D. Muraro, F. Pappenberger, Quality control, validation and user feedback of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS). Int. J. Digital Earth. 4(Supplement 1), 77--90 (2011), Special Issue

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • A. de Roo, B. Gouweleeuw, J. Thielen, J. Bartholmes, P. Bongioannini-Cerlini, E. Todini, P. Bates, M. Horritt, N. Hunter, K.J. Beven, F. Pappenberger, E. Heise, G. Rivin, M. Hills, A. Hollingsworth, B. Holst, J. Kwadijk, P. Reggiani, M. van Dijk, K. Sattler, E. Sprokkereef, Development of a European Flood Forecasting System. Int. J. River Basin Manage. 1, 49–59 (2003)

    Google Scholar 

  • D. Demeritt, H. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, J. Thielen, J. Bartholmes, M.H. Ramos, Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting. Environ. Hazards 7, 115–127 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • B. Gouweleeuw, P. Reggiani, A. De Roo, A European Flood Forecasting System EFFS. Full Report, European Report EUR21208, EC DG JRC & WL Delft Hydraulics, p. 304 (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  • B.T. Gouweleeuw, J. Thielen, G. Franchello, A.P.J. de Roo, R. Buizza, Flood forecasting using medium-range probabilistic weather prediction. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 9(4), 365–380 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Y. He, F. Wetterhall, H.L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, M. Wilson, J. Freer, G. McGregor, Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions. Met. Apps 16, 91–101 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1002/met.132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • W.-R. Hsu, A.H. Murphy, The attributes diagram: a geometric framework for assessing the quality of probability forecasts. Int. J. Forecast. 2, 285–293 (1986)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • I.T. Jolliffe, D.B. Stephenson, Forecast Verification: A practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science (Wiley, Chichester, 2003)

    Google Scholar 

  • F. Pappenberger, K.J. Beven, N.M. Hunter, P.D. Bates, B.T. Gouweleeuw, J. Thielen, A.P.J. de Roo, Cascading model uncertainty from medium range weather forecasts (10 days) through a rainfall-runoff model to flood inundation predictions within the European flood forecasting system EFFS). Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 9(4), 381–393 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • F. Pappenberger, J. Bartholmes, J. Thielen, H.L. Cloke, R. Buizza, A. de Roo, New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L10404 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033837

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • F. Pappenberger, J. Thielen Del Pozo, M. Del Medico, The impact of weather forecast improvements on large scale hydrology: analysing a decade of forecasts of the European Flood Alert System. Hydrol. Process. 25(7), 1091–1113 (2011a)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • F. Pappenberger, K. Bogner, F. Wetterhall, H. Yi, H. Cloke, J. Thielen Del Pozo, Forecast convergence score: a forecaster’s approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems. Adv. Geosci. 29, 27–32 (2011b)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • F. Pappenberger, E. Stephens, J. Thielen, P. Salamon, D. Demeritt, S.J. van Andel, F. Wetterhall, L. Alfieri, Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication. Hydrol. Process. 27(1), 132–146 (2013). http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.9253/full

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • F. Pappenberger, H.L. Cloke, D.J. Parker, F. Wetterhall, D.S. Richardson, J. Thielen, The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe. Environ. Sci. Pol. 51, 278–291 (2015a). ISSN 1873–6416. :https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.04.016

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • F. Pappenberger, M.H. Ramos, H.L. Cloke, F. Wetterhall, L. Alfieri, K. Bogner, A. Mueller, P. Salamon, How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in Hydrological ensemble prediction. J. Hydrol. 522, 697–713 (2015b). ISSN 0022–1694. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.024

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • M.-H. Ramos, J. Bartholmes, J. Thielen-del Pozo, Development of decision support products based on ensemble forecasts in the European flood alert system. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 8(4), 113–119 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. Schaake, K. Franz, A. Bradley, R. Buizza, The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction EXperiment (HEPEX). Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 3, 3321–3332 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • E. Stephens, H. Cloke, Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond). Geochem. J. 180, 310–316 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. Thielen, J. Schaake, R. Hartman, R. Buizza, Aims, challenges and progress of the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) following the third HEPEX workshop held in Stresa 27 to 29 June 2007. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 9, 29–35 (2008a)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. Thielen, P. Salamon, A. De Roo, “Geographical information systems – An integral part of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS)”. GeoFocus (Editorial) (8), 12–16 (2008b). ISSN: 1578–5157

    Google Scholar 

  • J. Thielen, J. Bartholmes, M.-H. Ramos, A. de Roo, The European Flood Alert System – part 1: concept and development. Hydro. Earth Syst. ScI 13, 125–140 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. Thielen, F. Pappenberger, P. Salamon, K. Bogner, P. Burek, A. de Roo, State of the art of flood forecasting – from deterministic to probabilistic approaches, in Flood Hazards: Impacts and Responses for the Built Environment, ed. by J. Lamond, C. Booth, F. Hammond, D. Proverbs, T. Francis (Francis and Taylor, London, 2011), 371 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • J. Toothill, Central European Flooding August 2002, Technical Report EQECAT, ABS Consulting, 21 p, (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  • J.M. van der Knijff, J. Younis, A.P.J. de Roo, LISFLOOD: a GIS-based distributed model for river basin scale water balance and flood simulation. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 24, 189–212 (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  • F. Wetterhall, F. Pappenberger, H. Cloke, J. Thielen del Pozo et al., Forecasters priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17, 4389–4399 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • P. Yiou, P. Ribereau, P. Naveau, M. Nogaj, R. Brazdil, Statistical analysis of floods in Bohemia (Czech Republic) since 1825. Hydrol. Sci. J. 51(5), 930–945 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy

    Jutta Thielen-del Pozo

  2. Water Program (WAT), International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

    Peter Burek

  3. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast, ECMWF, Reading, UK

    Florian Pappenberger

  4. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoeping, Sweden

    C. Alionte Eklund

  5. Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, Water Management Centre of the Netherlands, River Forecasting Service, Lelystad, The Netherlands

    Eric Sprokkereef

  6. Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Bratislava, Slovakia

    M. Hazlinger

  7. REDIAM, Sevilla, Spain

    M. Padilla Garcia

  8. ELIMCO SISTEMAS S.L., Sevilla, Spain

    R. Garcia-Sanchez

  9. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Climate Risk Management Unit, Ispra, VA, Italy

    Peter Salamon

Authors
  1. Jutta Thielen-del Pozo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Peter Salamon
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Peter Burek
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Florian Pappenberger
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. C. Alionte Eklund
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Eric Sprokkereef
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. M. Hazlinger
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. M. Padilla Garcia
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. R. Garcia-Sanchez
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jutta Thielen-del Pozo .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

    Qingyun Duan

  2. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, Reading, UK

    Florian Pappenberger

  3. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

    Andy Wood

  4. Department of Meteorology, Reading University, Reading, UK

    Hannah L. Cloke

  5. U.S. National Weather Service (retired), Annapolis, MD, USA

    John C. Schaake

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2019 Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature

About this entry

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this entry

Pozo, J.Td. et al. (2019). Medium Range Flood Forecasting Example EFAS. In: Duan, Q., Pappenberger, F., Wood, A., Cloke, H., Schaake, J. (eds) Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-39925-1_51

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation