Summary. Jared Diamond, in his provocative book Collapse, describes multiple cases where civilizations went through periods of collapse, e.g., the Mayans, the Anasazi and the natives of Easter Island. These collapses were caused by changes in the local system brought about by a combination of natural and human activity. So, for example, the Mayan and Anasazi civilizations developed agricultural technologies during periods when the climate was favorable. The result was an expanded population which could not be supported when extended droughts occurred. But collapse was not inevitable; all of these cultures made choice; indeed, some like the Anasazi survived by changing practices. Our global civilizations have now created the anthropocene, in which human, natural and technological systems are inextricably intertwined. Human activity can, in a very short time, create holes in the ozone layer and change the climate across the entire planet. According to Brad Allenby, our species has a responsibility to manage the global ecosystem. Indeed, it the key to the survival of civilization. This presentation will explore the cognitive capabilities needed to undertake this task, incorporating the latest results from a workshop on trading zones and interactional expertise, to be held at Arizona State University from May 21 to 25. Modeling will be one of the tools discussed in the talk, including results on the economic and health impacts of air pollution in China.
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Gorman, M.E. (2007). Cognition, Environment and the Collapse of Civilizations. In: Magnani, L., Li, P. (eds) Model-Based Reasoning in Science, Technology, and Medicine. Studies in Computational Intelligence, vol 64. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-71986-1_12
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