Comparative Chemical Mutagenicity: Can We make Risk Estimates?

Abstract

The goal of risk estimation is to extrapolate toxicity data from model test systems to some system at risk—usually man—and in the process, to gain some quantitative insight into the magnitude of health hazards involved. For example, fairly early in the long and expensive process of drug development, some idea of the therapeutic index of a candidate drug is desired. If its toxic effects occur at doses too close to the therapeutic dose, further investment in that compound is usually contraindicated. This process is not perfect, of course; but despite their defects, such risk estimations from data in nonhuman species and model systems continue to be of service.