Skip to main content

Application of Decision Science to Resilience Management in Jamaica Bay

  • Chapter
Prospects for Resilience

Abstract

This book highlights the growing interest in management interventions designed to enhance the resilience of social-ecological systems (SESs) such as the Jamaica Bay watershed. Effective management requires decision makers to anticipate how the managed system will respond to interventions (i.e., via predictions or projections), whether the focus is on managing biological processes or human behavior or (most likely) both. In systems characterized by many interacting components and high uncertainty, however, making even probabilistic predictions is difficult.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Adger, W.N., Hughes, T.P., Folke, C., Carpenter, S.R., and Rockström, J. 2005. Social-ecological resilience to coastal disasters. Science 309(5737): 1036–1039.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Allen, C.R., Fontaine, J.J., Pope, K.L., and Garmestani, A.S. 2011. Adaptive management for a turbulent future. Journal of Environmental Management 92: 1339–1345.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allen, C.R., and Gunderson, L.H. 2011. Pathology and failure in the design and implementation of adaptive management. Journal of Environmental Management 92: 1379–1384.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arvai, J.L., Gregory, R., and McDaniels, T.L. 2001. Testing a structured decision approach: Value-focused thinking for deliberative risk communication. Risk Analysis 21(6): 1065–1076.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Barthel, S., Folke, C., and Colding, J. 2010. Social–ecological memory in urban gardens—retaining the capacity for management of ecosystem services. Global Environmental Change 20(2): 255–265.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beck, U. 2010. Climate for change, or how to create a green modernity? Theory, Culture and Society 27(2–3): 254–266.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Belton V., and Stewart, T.J. 2002. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: An Integrated Approach. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Ben-Haim, Y. 2001. Information Gap Decision Theory: Decisions Under Severe Uncertainty. San Diego, CA: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bishop, R. 1993. Economic efficiency, sustainability, and biodiversity. Ambio 22(2): 69–73.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blomquist, S.M., Johnson, T.D., Smith, D.R., Call, G.P., Miller, B.N., et al. 2010. Structured decision-making and rapid prototyping to plan a management response to an invasive species. Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management 1: 19–32.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carpenter, S.R., Folke, C., Scheffer, M., and Westley, F. 2009. Resilience: Accounting for the noncomputable. Ecology and Society. 14(1):13.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chapin, F.S., Kofinias, G.P., and Folke, C. (eds). 2009. Principles of Ecosystem Stewardship: Resilience-Based Natural Resource Management in a Changing World. New York, NY: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Conroy, M.J., and Moore, C.T. 2001. Simulation models and optimal decision making in natural resource management. In: Modeling in Natural Resource Management: Development, Interpretation, and Application. Shenk, T., and Franklin, A. (eds). Washington, D.C.: Island Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Conroy, M.J., and Peterson, J.T. 2013. Decision Making in Natural Resource Management: A Structured, Adaptive Approach. West Sussex, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Cosens, B., Gunderson, L., Allen, C., and Benson, M. 2014. Identifying legal, ecological and governance obstacles, and opportunities for adapting to climate change. Sustainability 6: 2338–2356.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cumming, G.S., Cumming, D.H.M., and Redman, C.L. 2006. Scale mismatches in social-ecological systems: Causes, consequences, and solutions. Ecology and Society 11(1): 14.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cundill, G., Cumming, G.S., Biggs, D., and Fabricius, C. 2012. Soft systems thinking and social learning for adaptive management. Conservation Biology 26: 13–20.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Davidson, D.J. 2010. The applicability of the concept of resilience to social systems: Some sources of optimism and nagging doubts. Society and Natural Resources 23(12): 1135–1149.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eaton, M.J., Martin, J., Nichols, J.D., McIntyre, C., McCluskie, M.C., et al. 2014. Application of threshold concepts in natural resource decision making. In: Application of Threshold Concepts in Natural Resource Decision Making. Guntenspergen, G.R. (ed). 67–86. New York, NY: Springer.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Failing, L., Gregory, R., and Harstone, M. 2007. Integrating science and local knowledge in environmental risk management: A decision-focused approach. Ecological Economics 64: 47–60.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischer, J., Peterson, G.D., Gardner, T.A., Gordon, L.J., and Fazey, I., et al. 2009. Integrating resilience thinking and optimisation for conservation. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 24: 549–554.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Folke, C. 2006. Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social–ecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change 16: 253–267.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Folke, C., Carpenter, S., Walker, B., Scheffer, M., Chapin, F.S., and Rockström, J. 2010. Resilience thinking: Integrating resilience, adaptability and transformability. Ecology and Society 15(4): 20.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Folke, C., Pritchert, J., Berkes, F., Colding, J., and Svedin, U. 2007. The problem of fit between ecosystems and institutions: Ten years later. Ecology and Society 12(1): 30.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gregory, R., and Failing, L. 2002. Using decision analysis to encourage sound deliberation: Water use planning in British Columbia, Canada. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 21: 492–499.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gregory, R., Failing, L., Harstone, M., Long, G., McDaniels, T., and Ohlson, D. 2012. Structured Decision Making: A Practical Guide to Environmental Management Choices. West Sussex, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Gregory, R.S., and Long, G. 2009. Using structured decision making to help implement a precautionary approach to endangered species management. Risk Analysis 29: 518–532.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gunderson, L.H. 1999. Resilience, flexibility and adaptive management—antidotes for spurious certitude? Conservation Ecology 3(1): 7.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gunderson, L.H. 2001. Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems. Washington, D.C.: Island Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hammond, J.S., Keeney, R.L., and Raiffa, H. 1999. Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Life Decisions. New York: Broadway Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hauser, C.E., and Possingham, H.P. 2008. Experimental or precautionary? Adaptive management over a range of time horizons. Journal of Applied Ecology 45: 72–81.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holling, C.S. 1986. Resilience of ecosystems: Local surprise and global change. In: Sustainable Development of the Biosphere. Clark, W.C., and Munn, R.E. (eds). 292–317. Cambridge (UK): Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Holling, C.S., and Meffe, G.K. 1996. Command and control and the pathology of natural resource management. Conservation Biology 10(2): 328–337.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Irwin, B.J., Wilberg, M.J., Bence, J.R., and Jones, M.L. 2008. Evaluating alternative harvest policies for yellow perch in southern Lake Michigan. Fisheries Research 94: 267–281.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johnson, F.A., Boomer, G.S., Williams, B.K., Nichols, J.D., and Case, D.J. 2015. Multilevel learning in the adaptive management of waterfowl harvests: 20 years and counting. Wildlife Society Bulletin 39: 9–19.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johnson, F.A., and Williams, B.K. 2014. A decision-analytic approach to adaptive resource management. In: Adaptive Management of Natural Resources in Theory and Practice. Allen, C.R., and Garmestani, A.S. (eds). 61–84. New York, NY: Springer Publishing Co.

    Google Scholar 

  • Johnson, F.A., Williams, B.K., and Nichols, J.D. 2013. Resilience thinking and a decision-analytic approach to conservation: Strange bedfellows or essential partners? Ecology and Society 18(2).

    Google Scholar 

  • Keefer, D.L., Kirkwood, C.W., and Corner, J.L. 2004. Perspective on decision analysis applications. Decision Analysis 1(1): 4–22.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keeney, R.L. 1982. Decision analysis: An overview. Operations Research 30(5): 803–838.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Keeney, R.L. 1992. Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keeney, R.L., von Winterfeldt, D., and Eppel, T. 1990. Eliciting public values for complex policy decisions. Management Science 36: 1011–1030.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kennedy, M.C., Ford, E.D., Singleton, P., Finney, M., and Agee, J.K. 2008. Informed multi-objective decision-making in environmental management using Pareto optimality. Journal of Applied Ecology 45: 181–192.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lauber, T., and Knuth, B. 1997. Fairness in moose management decision-making: The citizens’ perspective. Wildlife Society Bulletin 25: 776–787.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee, K.N. 1993. Compass and Gyroscope: Integrating Science and Politics for the Environment. Washington, D.C.: Island Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lempert, R.J. 2002. A new decision sciences for complex systems. PNAS 99: 7309–7313.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Levin, S. 1999. Fragile Dominion: Complexity and the Commons. Reading, MA: Perseus Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lyons, J.E., Runge, M.C., Laskowski, H.P., and Kendall, W.L. 2008. Monitoring in the context of structured decision-making and adaptive management. Journal of Wildlife Management 72: 1683–1692.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahmoud, M., Liu, Y., Hartmann, H., Stewart, S., Wagener, T., et al. 2009. A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making. Environmental Modelling and Software 24: 798–808.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marcot, B.G., Thompson, M.P., Runge, M.C., Thompson, F.R., McNulty, S., et al. 2012. Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests. Forest Ecology and Management 285: 123–132.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marescot, L., Chapron, G., Chadès, I., Fackler, P.L., Duchamp, C., et al. 2013. Complex decisions made simple: A primer on stochastic dynamic programming. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 4: 872–884.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McGowan, C.P., Lyons, J.E., and Smith, D.R. 2015. Developing objectives with multiple stakeholders: Adaptive management of horseshoe crabs and red knots in the Delaware Bay. Environmental Management 55: 972–982.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McGowan, C.P., Smith, D.R., Sweka, J.A., Martin, J., Nichols, J.D., et al. 2011. Multispecies modeling for adaptive management of horseshoe crabs and red knots in the Delaware Bay. Natural Resource Modeling 24: 117–156.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McNie, E.C. 2007. Reconciling the supply of scientific information with user demands: An analysis of the problem and review of the literature. Environmental Science and Policy 10: 17–38.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Mills, T.J., and Clark, R.N. 2001. Role of research scientists in natural resource decision-making. Forest Ecology and Management 153: 190–198.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moore, A.L., Hauser, C.E., and McCarthy, M.A. 2008. How we value the future affects our desire to learn. Ecological Applications 18(4): 1061–1069.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moore, A.L., and McCarthy, M.A. 2010. On valuing information in adaptive-management models. Conservation Biology 24(4): 984–993.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • New York Ocean and Great Lakes Ecosystem Conservation Act. 2006. S-8380, A-10584B. Accessed at: http://www.dos.ny.gov/opd/programs/pdfs/ECL_Article14.pdf.

  • NPS (National Park Service). 2014. Gateway National Recreation Area. Final General Management Plan/Environmental Impact Statement April. Accessed at: http://parkplanning.nps.gov/document.cfm?parkID = 237&projectID = 16091&documentID = 59051.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pahl-Wostl, C. 2009. A conceptual framework for analysing adaptive capacity and multi-level learning processes in resource governance regimes. Global Environmental Change 19: 354–365.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peterson, J.T., and Evans, J.W. 2003. Quantitative decision analysis for sport fisheries management. Fisheries 28(1): 10–21.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peterson, G., Allen, C.R., and Holling, C.S. 1998. Ecological resilience, biodiversity, and scale. Ecosystems 1: 6–18.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peterson, G.D., Cumming, G.S., and Carpenter, S.R. 2003. Scenario planning: A tool for conservation in an uncertain world. Conservation Biology 17(2): 358–366.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pielke, R.A., Jr. 2007. The Honest Broker: Making Sense of Science in Policy and Politics. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Polasky, S., Carpenter, S.R., Folke, C., and Keeler, B. 2011a. Decision-making under great uncertainty: Environmental management in an era of global change. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 26(8): 398–404.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Polasky, S., Nelson, E., and Camm, J. 2008. Where to put things: Spatial land management to sustain biodiversity and economic returns. Biological Conservation 141: 1505–1524.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Polasky, S., de Zeeuw, A., and Wagener, F. 2011b. Optimal management with potential regime shifts. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 62: 229–240.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Possingham, H., and Biggs, D. 2012. Resilience thinking versus decision theory? Decision Point 62: 4–5.

    Google Scholar 

  • Regan, H.M., Ben-Haim, Y., Langford, B., Wilson, W.G., Lundberg, P., et al. 2005. Robust decision-making under severe uncertainty for conservation management. Ecological Applications 15(4): 1471–1477.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robinson, K.F., and Fuller, A.K. in press. Guiding stakeholders through the process: Participatory modeling and structured decision making. In: Including Stakeholders in Environmental Modeling: Considerations, Methods, and Applications. Gray, S., Paolisso, M., and Jordan, R. (eds). Switzerland: Springer International Publishing.

    Google Scholar 

  • Robinson, K.F., and Jennings, C.A. 2012. Maximizing age-0 spot export from a South Carolina estuary: An evaluation of coastal impoundment management alternatives via structured decision making. Marine Coastal Fisheries 4: 156–172.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Runge, M.C. 2011. An introduction to adaptive management for threatened and endangered species. Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management 2: 220–233.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Runge, M.C., Converse, S.J., and Lyons, J.E. 2011. Which uncertainty? Using expert elicitation and expected value of information to design an adaptive program. Biological Conservation 144: 1214–1223.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scheffer, M. 2009. Critical Transitions in Nature and Society. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stedman, R.C. 2015. The reification trap, or “following the data around”: Resilience and the sustainability hangover. Paper presented at Resilience 2014: Resilience and Development.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stedman, R.C., Patriquin, M.N., and Parkins, J.R. 2012. Dependence, diversity, and the well-being of rural community: Building on the Freudenburg legacy. Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 2(1): 28–38.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tyre, A.J., Peterson, J.T., Converse, S.J., Bogich, T., Miller, D., et al. 2011. Adaptive management of bull trout populations in the Lemhi Basin. Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management 2: 262–281.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Waldman, J. 2008. Research opportunities in the natural and social sciences at the Jamaica Bay Unit of Gateway National Recreation Area. Brooklyn, NY: National Park Service. p 77.

    Google Scholar 

  • Walker, B. 1992. Biodiversity and ecological redundancy. Conservation Biology 6: 18–23.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walker, B. 1995. Conserving biological diversity through ecosystem resilience. Conservation Biology 9: 747–752.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walker, B., and Salt, D. 2006. Resilience Thinking: Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing World. Washington, D.C.: Island Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Walters, C.J. 1986. Adaptive Management of Renewable Resources. New York, NY: MacMillan Publishing Co.

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams, B.K. 1996. Adaptive optimization of renewable natural resources: Solution algorithms and a computer program. Ecological Modelling 93: 101–111.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williams, B.K. 2001. Uncertainty, learning, and the optimal management of wildlife. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 8: 269–288.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williams, B.K. 2009. Markov decision processes in natural resources management: Observability and uncertainty. Ecological Modelling 220: 830–840.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williams, B.K., Eaton, M.J., and Breininger, D.R. 2011. Adaptive resource management and the value of information. Ecological Modelling 222: 3429–3436.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williams, B.K., and Johnson, F.A. 1995. Adaptive management and the regulation of waterfowl harvests. Wildlife Society Bulletin 23: 430–436.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2016 Eric W. Sanderson, William D. Solecki, John R. Waldman, and Adam S. Parris

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Eaton, M.J., Fuller, A.K., Johnson, F.A., Hare, M.P., Stedman, R.C. (2016). Application of Decision Science to Resilience Management in Jamaica Bay. In: Sanderson, E.W., Solecki, W.D., Waldman, J.R., Parris, A.S. (eds) Prospects for Resilience. Island Press, Washington, DC. https://doi.org/10.5822/978-1-61091-734-6_10

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics