Saving a Million Species

pp 73-86

The Use and Misuse of Species-Area Relationships in Predicting Climate-Driven Extinction

  • John HarteAffiliated withUniversity of California-Berkeley
  • , Justin KitzesAffiliated withUniversity of California-Berkeley

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Thomas et al. (2004) pioneered the estimate of extinction risk due to climate change by coupling species range-loss simulations from species distribution models with species-loss estimates from the species-area relationships (SARs). Unfortunately, numerous conceptual and practical problems permeate this seemingly solid and straightforward approach. Chapter 4 explored developments in climate envelope modeling. Here we focus on the challenges associated with applying a SAR approach to climate-driven extinction estimates and propose a novel application of recent Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) theory in ecology that may help to address some of them.