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Weather Patterns

  • Dante J. Scala

Abstract

The morning of the 2000 New Hampshire primary was a sunny one, but not for Vice President Al Gore and his operatives. Early exit polls showed that Gore had frittered away a lead over his challenger, Bill Bradley, and was trailing the insurgent. A campaign that took months to build suddenly had just hours to redeem itself. To salvage a victory, Gore’s multimillion-dollar campaign now depended on decidedly low-tech devices: sound trucks, shoe leather, and knuckles on doors.

Keywords

Weather Pattern Democratic Party Class Vote Front Runner Candidate Total 
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Notes

  1. 2.
    The work of Ronald Brownstein of Los AngelesTimes offered much food for thought when I began to examine this subject during the 2000 primary cycle. See, for example, “To Challenge Gore, Bradley Needs to Look Beyond Volvo Democrats,” the Los Angeles Times, May 17, 1999.Google Scholar
  2. 4.
    William L. Dunfey, “A Short History of the Democratic Party in New Hampshire” (master’s thesis, submitted to the University of New Hampshire, 1954), p. 228.Google Scholar
  3. 11.
    Neal R. Peirce, The New England States (New York: W. W. Norton, 1976), p. 289.Google Scholar
  4. 12.
    Nancy Coffey Hefferman and Ann Page Stecker, New Hampshire: Crosscurrents in Its Development (Grantham, N.H.: Tompson & Rutter, 1986), pp. 144–45.Google Scholar
  5. 13.
    Duane Lockard, New England State Politics (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1959), p. 63.Google Scholar
  6. 14.
    Ibid., p. 64.Google Scholar
  7. 15.
    Ibid., p. 62.Google Scholar
  8. 16.
    Ibid., p. 67.Google Scholar
  9. 21.
    Jules Witcover, Marathon: The Pursuit of the Presidency (New York: Viking Press, 1977), p. 222.Google Scholar
  10. 22.
    New Hampshire Office of State Planning, Statistical Profile of New Hampshire 1970–1990, 1992, p. 1.Google Scholar
  11. 24.
    Michael Dupre and Dante Scala, “Border Crossings: The Impact of Migration on the New Hampshire House of Representatives,” New Hampshire Institute of Politics, Research Center Working Paper Series No. 1, 2002, pp. 3–4.Google Scholar
  12. 46.
    David C. Hoeh, 1968, McCarthy, New Hampshire (Rochester, Minn.: Lone Oak Press, 1994), p. 493.Google Scholar
  13. 47.
    Ibid., pp. 334–37.Google Scholar
  14. 48.
    Ibid., pp. 15–16.Google Scholar
  15. 49.
    Charles Brereton, First in the Nation: New Hampshire and the Premier Presidential Primary (Portsmouth, N.H.: Peter E. Randall, 1987), p. 146.Google Scholar
  16. 50.
    Theodore H. White, The Making of the President 1972 (New York: Atheneum, 1973), p. 121.Google Scholar
  17. 51.
    Ibid., p. 121.Google Scholar
  18. 52.
    Ibid., p. 79.Google Scholar
  19. 58.
    Susan Berry Casey, Hart and Soul: Gary Harts New Hampshire Odyssey…and Beyond (Concord, N.H.: NHI Press), pp. 278–79.Google Scholar
  20. 62.
    John DiStaso and Michael Cousineau, “Forbes Has Good Night, but Bradley Doesn’t,” Manchester Union Leader, January 25, 2000.Google Scholar
  21. 64.
    Emmett Buell, “The Changing Face of the New Hampshire Primary,” in In Pursuit of the White House 2000, edited by William G. Mayer (New York: Chatham House, 2000).Google Scholar
  22. 65.
    Ibid., pp. 111–18.Google Scholar
  23. 66.
    Data from exit polls conducted at 2000 New Hampshire primary; for further details, see http:// abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/2000vote/exitpoll_nh_dem.html.Google Scholar
  24. 70.
    Interview by the author, December 17, 2002. A recent study of New Hampshire voters concludes that there is little evidence that undeclared voters in the state behaved much differently from registered party voters in the 2000 presidential primary. Primaries are volatile, they state, because “voters and candidates are operating in a low-information environment in which new facts and new impressions count heavily”; both undeclared voters and registered party voters are subject to these same uncertainties. Allowing undeclared voters to participate, they conclude, “does not seem to make an already unstable situation decidedly worse.” Linda L. Fowler, Constantine J. Spiliotes, and Lynn Vavreck, “Sheep in Wolves’ Clothing: Undeclared Voters in New Hampshire’s Open Primary,” PS: Political Science and Politics 36, no. 2 (April 2003): 159–63.Google Scholar

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© Dante J. Scala 2003

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  • Dante J. Scala

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