Abstract
The twentieth century has been unique in modern history; for three centuries the structure of international politics remained multipolar, in the twentieth century it has changed three times. Multipolar at the outset, it became bipolar after the Second World War, unipolar with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and as the new millennium dawns it is gradually becoming multipolar once more.
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- Nuclear Weapon
- Great Power
- Military Force
- International Politics
- American Political Science Review
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I want to thank Karen Adams, Robert Rauchhaus and Mark Sheetz for their help with, and criticisms of, this chapter.
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Notes
Quoted by Ted Robert Gurr, ‘Persistence and Change in Political Systems, 1800–1971’, American Political Science Review, vol. 68 (4) (December 1974), p. 1504.
Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 ( New York: Random House, 1987 ).
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See Michael Brown, ‘The Flawed Logic of Expansion’, Survival, vol. 37(1) (Spring 1995), pp. 34–52.
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‘The Capability to Develop Nuclear Weapons should be Kept: Ministry of Foreign Affairs Secret Document in 1969’, Mainichi, 1 August 1994, p. 41, as quoted in Selig S. Harrison, ‘Japan and Nuclear Weapons’, in Selig S. Harrison (ed.), Japan’s Nuclear Future ( Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1996 ), p. 9.
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Gerald M. Steinberg, ‘After the NPT Extension: Israeli Policy Options’, IGCC Newsletter, vol. 11(2) (Fall 1995), p. 6.
See Barry R. Posen, ‘U.S. Security in a Nuclear-Armed World–Or: What if Iraq had had Nuclear Weapons?’ Security Studies, vol. 6(3) (Spring 1997 ), pp. 1–31.
The paragraphs immediately above are based on Waltz, ‘Thoughts about Virtual Nuclear Arsenals’, in Michael J. Mazarr (ed.), Nuclear Weapons in a Transformed World ( New York: St Martin’s Press, 1997 ).
A.M. Rosenthal, ‘Always Believe Dictators’, New York Times, 28 March 1994, p. A10.
John McCain, letter, New York Times, 28 March 1994, p. A10.
Eric Schmitt, ‘U.S. is Redefining Nuclear Deterrence, Terrorist Nations Targeted’, International Herald Tribune, 26 February 1993.
Claudia Dreifus, ‘Benazir Bhutto’, New York Times Magazine, 15 May 1994, p. 39.
Shankar Bajpai, ‘Nuclear Exchange’, Far Eastern Economic Review, 24 June 1993, p. 24.
Richard Bernstein and Ross H. Munro, The Coming Conflict with China ( New York: A. A. Knorpf, 1997 );
and also Andrew J. Nathan and Robert S. Ross, The Great Wall and the Empty Fortress: China’s Search for Security ( New York: W. W. Norton, 1997 ).
Michael J. Green and Benjamin L. Self, ‘Japan’s Changing China Policy: From Commercial Liberalism to Reluctant Realism’, Survival, vol. 38(2) (Summer 1996 ), p. 43.
Charles W. Kegley, Jr., ‘The Neoidealist Moment in International Studies? Realist Myths and the New International Realities’, International Studies Quarterly, vol. 37 (June 1993), p. 139.
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© 2000 Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited
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Waltz, K.N. (2000). Intimations of Multipolarity. In: Hansen, B., Heurlin, B. (eds) The New World Order. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781403905277_1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781403905277_1
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